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Stewart:
I call it a RR track...it's a price spike in one direction that then reverses. I
really like them when price makes a new extreme, then opens near that extreme,
retesting it and either just failing there or making another new extreme high or
low and then failing quickly. The prettiest of these formations are the ones
where the second bar engulfs the first new extremep[a key reversal bar]. I hope
this describes a formation you can picture--I think my word skills diminish as I
trade during the day.
Stops...well, in this market, that's gonna always be the problem.
First, when the SPs started to give all their ground back and the bond couldn't
get back below 12900, I took profit and went flat. I don't want to get caught
short today.
IF we had taken out that 12827 low and added to the short, I would have put an
immediate disaster stop in the 129 12-14 area. I'll look closer now to see if I
can fine tune where the stop should have been.
Best,
Tim Morge
Stewart Taylor wrote:
>
> Note that the broken t-l is now acting as resistance. Would hate to see
> price spend much time crawling up the underside of the t-l (like
> yesterday). You are right on (in my opinion) as to adding on a break of
> the mornings low, but where would you put your stop?
>
> I don't follow your comment about the r-road track. Would you mind
> elaborating?
>
> At 09:26 AM 9/11/98 -0500, you wrote:
> >Stewart:
> >
> >Yes, I saw that as well and I thought about it for a good minute or two
> before
> >selling half a unit in bonds and in ten years.
> >
> >By the way, take a look at a 40 minute chart in bonds if you can, with the
> >starting time of the open this morning. We have a nice looking RR track
> from the
> >highs today. Although I am treating the short position as a scalp, if we take
> >out the lows we just made at 12827, I think this could accelerate fast on the
> >downside and I would add on a break.
> >
> >Best,
> >
> >Tim Morge
> >
> >Stewart Taylor wrote:
> >>
> >> Another three drive move with a trend line break in the bonds this morning.
> >> Note the clear three drives on the 15 minute chart. 1st drive to 128.22
> >> (09/10 @ 10:05 AM), 2nd drive to 129.17 (09/10 @ 2:20pm) and the third
> >> drive this morning @ 129.23 (09/11 @ 9:50am).
> >>
> >> There are overbought conditions in all perspectives and the momentum is
> >> declining. The set up was a very nice one.
> >>
> >> In this case the t-l intersected price at 129.12, Entry stop @ 129.10 was
> >> filled cleanly and the initial break took prices as low as 128.27. You
> >> have the choice, if you think that the break is going to be bigger of
> >> holding the trade or treating it as a scalp (a better idea as all the
> >> underlying trends are up).
> >>
> >> Anyway.... Im still trying to stimulate some discussion.
> >>
> >> Stewart Taylor
> >> Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
> >> Voice: 501-219-9774
> >> Fax: 501-228-0963
> >> E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
> >> Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
> >
> >
> Stewart Taylor
> Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
> Voice: 501-219-9774
> Fax: 501-228-0963
> E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
> Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
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