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Hi Mike. You make a compelling argument but I gotta go with what I see.
What I see is what I see and yes I probably am reacting with somewhat
overblown cynacism but what the hell.
This is what I've seen. The first pitch the pitcher threw when he hit that
home run was down and inside. The catcher set up down and inside. Why was
the catcher there? Did he even go back there after that? Was the catcher
even telling Mac where it was going? Why not paint the outside where the
chances he'll hit it out are slimmer? How many of his home runs were to the
opposite field this year? Practically nil. He's a pull hitter and down
inside is NOT the place to pitch a pull hitter. What did he hit a cheap
slider that didn't break? These pitchers are good enough to put the ball
wherever they want to. Curve balls, sliders, fast balls can go anywhere.
Why did they put it in his wheelhouse on the very first pitch (perhaps the
second)? Take a look at the clips -- even going back a month -- they're all
in pretty much the same place. If I'm facing a batter like that, he gets a
steady diet of offspeed and away with an occasional fastball high and tight
or over the outside. A mistake is the only way he gets one he can turn on.
They pitched him properly after that at bat -- outside. People involved with
baseball for a long time and/or love the game have vested interests in
seeing it prosper and rise from the depths it has sunk to in recent times.
I can't say I totally believe what I wrote last night but I do think
everybody -- comissioners, owners, beer men (women?), and even the
pitchers-- wanted to see McGWIRE (thank you James) reach that goal. As far
as pichers feeling competitive goes, that's what I would intuitively think
too but after reading the Sports Ill. Article on McGWIRE (thank you again
James) I guess that's not the case.
However, getting close was an accomplishment. And of course my hat is all
the way off to BIG Mac.
I guess this is what makes a horse race <smile>.
But was the bat corked? Man those balls leap off the bat pretty fast. The
world may never know.... (Jjk)
BTW: You don't happen to live around St. Louis do you?
Regards,
Brian.
-----Original Message-----
From: Mike Reed [mailto:mreed@xxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 1:21 PM
To: Robert W Cummings
Cc: bnm@xxxxxxxxxx; List, Omega
Subject: Re: off Subject #62
Robert, Brian, James, and other conspiracy theorists...
Can't disagree more about the supposed lollipops McGuire has been seeing,
and
especially last night.
I've been involved in professional baseball since 1974, as a minor leaguer
and
in various scouting
activities. I'm currently under contract as an associate scout for Seattle,
and
worked for LA before that so I think I can speak with a bit more insight
than
the casual fan. You say "All his HR pitches were down and inside or across
the
plate." As opposed to what, high and outside and a foot off of the plate?
C'mon
guys, ever hear of waiting for your pitch, knowing your strengths and
weaknesses, etc. I'm sure you have, or you wouldn't be successfully trading.
Trachsel was pitching a great game up to that point, and made a pretty
damned
good pitch to McGuire that he just turned around, hit it so hard that it
still
hadtop spin from that uppercut and might have gone through the wall if it
was a
foot lower. I wonder how many other big leaguers woulda, even coulda, done
the
same? Sure there are advanced scouting reports, did ya miss the shift most
teams
have been pulling when he is at the plate? And how about the first 50 this
year?
Or the 59 he hit last year? What, these pitchers don't like to compete?
C'mon
again. These guys are the best at their sport in the world, and they don't
want
to get beat by anyone (well, 99% of 'em anyhow). Maybe it wasn't where YOU
guys
woulda pitched him, but it sure wasn't some BP pitch that he just laid in
there.
Have you guys seen him take BP? He only hits about half of them out during
that
and he's really getting lollipops then. Probably most important, in case you
guys haven't noticed, the Cubs happen to be in a wildcard battle with the
Mets
and Giants and there are only 17 games left, so I don't think Trachsel
wanted to
either hurt his teams chances of winning or go down in the record books as
the
guy who gave up number 62. Lastly, if you guys want to blame anything for
the
record being broken I suggest you try another route. Remember that there was
expansion in '61 also, and today's talent is somewhat diluted due to the
same
this year.
Now I don't know how to relate this to trading, but maybe using an analogy
that's kinda out there will
suffice, I'll give it a try anyway. Let's suppose that public records are
kept
from every trade made in
the SP pit, and there's a big board with a record of every traders P&L shown
as
total points up or
down on the year. Trader X was the big winner last year, almost broke a 37
year
old record last year
and has really been consistent over time, one of the really big hitters so
to
speak. Wow, ya gotta be
careful when trading with this guy. Everyone knows now from observation how
he
likes too trade, and
the setups for his biggest point winners over the years. Well, right now
trader
X is on the cusp of
breaking the old single year record and the world is a hush as all eyes
focus on
Trader X as he steps
into the pit to put on a position that might be the one that puts him in the
books. Now here you are,
Trader Z, a quite accomplished trader in your own right or you wouldn't be
there
and you're face to
face with Trader X. You have your reputation too, and you think you can grab
a
point or so from
Trader X or you wouldn't competing and it's what your work shows you should
do.
So you bravely
follow your plan and take the other side of Trader X's position, but whoops,
your were wrong. Not by
much, you just missed, but Trader X hit his pitch, err, got just enough of
your
mistake to put him in the
record books. The crowd around the pits break into cheer, they halt trading
for
15 minutes as the world watches Trader X relish his moment in the spotlight.
And
there you are, Trader Z, disappointed just a
bit that you just missed by a tiny bit but will recover, and the guy that
all of
conspiracy theorists are talking about the next day, saying what a lollipop
you
threw him. "Didn't he know that trader X liked that kind of setup?" they
ask.
"Yeah, and they've been doing it for weeks too just to help him get the
record,
and besides, it's good for business..."
--
best,
Mike
Robert W Cummings wrote:
> Brian,
>
> Yes I did notice that especially that last one number 62. Looked as if the
> pitcher was going to under hand
> soft ball style the next one if he missed that one. I don't know about
> lumber be maybe buy stock in that over the counter drug McGuire takes. My
> thinking was as I was caught up in the moment of this historic baseball
> event maybe this post would change the tone from religion and trading to
> baseball and trading. Guess not???
>
> Robert
>
> At 09:43 PM 9/8/98 -0700, Brian Massey wrote:
> >Robert,
> >
> >Don't get me wrong I'm a huge baseball fan having played through
childhood
> >and into early adulthood. I respect McGuire, Sosa and Griffy for what
they
> >have accomplished. However, after watching where the pitchers have been
> >pitching McGuire for past month when hitting HRs (check out the TV clips)
> >and where the ball was thrown when he hit #62, do you ever get the
feeling
> >like it was sort of rigged? All his HR pitches were down and inside or
> >across the plate. Scouting reports surely know this is his power zone so
> >why do they continue to pitch him there?
> >
> >I mean baseball is a business and this chase has been good for business.
> >People are coming out in record numbers. If I was commissioner I'd be
> >saying just serve it up to him at least once or twice each night.
> >
> >PS. I'm trying to think of a way this relates to trading. Do you think
I
> >should buy lumber futures as demand increases for McGuire's card?
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