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Tim wrote:
<<I have been long swiss since its breakout on 8/28,
dmarks since the breakout on the same day and yen on 8/31.>>
Surprise, surprise... All 3 are countertrend trades. Classic countertrend
trades off multiyear lows. In the case of the yen and Swissy, we even have
Kenny Roberts style 1-2-3 bottoms. I don't see any fancy math here, nor any
complex indicators. Just plain Jane failure swings and plainer than plain
breakouts.... in a *counter trend* system.
All the best,
The Omega Man
-----Original Message-----
From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: The Omega Man (TM) <editorial@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>; Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 3:29 PM
Subject: Re: CURRENCY PLAYS?
Omega Man:
Normally I would be looking at shorting both the instruments and the
currencies
of those countries. However, I have been long swiss since its breakout on
8/28,
dmarks since the breakout on the same day and yen on 8/31. Since these
markets
are much more liquid and the technical setups [for me] looked so clear, in
these
volatile markets I have no appetite for more currency risk of any kind in my
portfolio. Three units is as much as I carry.
Since I have been long US Bonds and Ten Year Notes and Mar Euros for weeks,
I
also have no room to have further interest rate exposure. Again, these
markets
are much more liquid than any of the vehicles I would have to trade[and they
are
most active in the hours I am awake...that never hurts].
Of course, I did get long barbecue grills for the long weekend...but that's
uncorrelated risk.
Best,
Tim Morge
The Omega Man (TM) wrote:
>
> Mark and Tim,
>
> What's the play in currencies right now?
>
> Are you trading the extreme in the dollar? Are you shorting emerging
> markets and/or their currencies and/or their bonds? If yes, which ones
and
> with what vehicles?
>
> All the best,
>
> The Omega Man
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:13 PM
> Subject: Re: Velocity, acceleration, tensors -- as it realtes trend
> trading...
>
> Subject: Re: Velocity, acceleration, tensors -- as it realtes trend
> trading...
>
> >> Are there any others out there who want to defend countertrend trading?
> >
> >I probably shouldn't speak for Mark... he does that quite well for
himself.
> :-) But I interpreted his countertrend" post somewhat differently. I took
it
> to mean *TRY* to pick off the top or the bottom.
> >If it doesn't work, reverse and go the other way. So, he's really trading
> both trends and countertrends.
> >
> > Dennis
>
> Dennis, I ve become the same as all those traders I've worked for in the
> past. They would tell me the system to program and it would be crap.
They
> would say well thats the system all the details I've given you. But they
> had done some things for so many years that they forgot that they did it
at
> all. They just took it for granted that every one knew what they were
> talking about.
>
> I assume the following: Markets trend very little, when they do its
> impressive sure. How will you pick the correct market to catch the trend?
> You wont its like the lottery and if you do it wont be because you know
what
> your doing. Thus I assume every market top and bottom to be sold and
bought
> if my systems tell me to. The trends take care of themselves, for if it
is
> truly a trend the systems reverse and go with it. Simply I'm a counter
> trend trader with a backup plan for when I'm wrong. I'm wrong very
little,
> I do just fine counter trending and I'm counter trending 90 % of the time.
> Wouldn't it be easy for me to trade the trend ? Da! Breakout channel,
Da!
> moving average, Da! 3 higher highs, Da! on and on.. I'm not stupid I can
> trend trade can you counter trend trade? Thats what I want to know, you
> have pissed me off sort of and if you dont agree then dont agree. But
dont
> run me down button hole, maybe you could learn something that would help
you
> sell some software that would really make some of your clients. I have
the
> most problems with vendors on this list and why? MB
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