|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Omega Man:
Doesn't surprise me much. I'll trade whatever I see that strikes a chord in me,
and the currencies, one after the other just exhibited strength.
On a more general note, if I can identify ranges that are crisp, I'll trade em.
If I can see a good swing low that is tested and hols, I'll trade the breakout
on the upside if the action is crisp.
Sure, I like all my trades to be as clear and with the trend as the bond trades
and note trades...but you trade what you get. I'll admit my 'mind' didn't want
any part of the yen's strength, but the action was there and it was as nice a
show of strength as the other currencies.
Last note: I cut all my position by 2/3's going into the weekend. There's too
many meetings for my taste and if there is a crack back in some of these
markets, the door will look awful small.
Best,
Tim Morge
The Omega Man (TM) wrote:
>
> Tim wrote:
>
> <<I have been long swiss since its breakout on 8/28,
> dmarks since the breakout on the same day and yen on 8/31.>>
>
> Surprise, surprise... All 3 are countertrend trades. Classic countertrend
> trades off multiyear lows. In the case of the yen and Swissy, we even have
> Kenny Roberts style 1-2-3 bottoms. I don't see any fancy math here, nor any
> complex indicators. Just plain Jane failure swings and plainer than plain
> breakouts.... in a *counter trend* system.
>
> All the best,
>
> The Omega Man
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: The Omega Man (TM) <editorial@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Cc: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>; Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Saturday, September 05, 1998 3:29 PM
> Subject: Re: CURRENCY PLAYS?
>
> Omega Man:
>
> Normally I would be looking at shorting both the instruments and the
> currencies
> of those countries. However, I have been long swiss since its breakout on
> 8/28,
> dmarks since the breakout on the same day and yen on 8/31. Since these
> markets
> are much more liquid and the technical setups [for me] looked so clear, in
> these
> volatile markets I have no appetite for more currency risk of any kind in my
> portfolio. Three units is as much as I carry.
>
> Since I have been long US Bonds and Ten Year Notes and Mar Euros for weeks,
> I
> also have no room to have further interest rate exposure. Again, these
> markets
> are much more liquid than any of the vehicles I would have to trade[and they
> are
> most active in the hours I am awake...that never hurts].
>
> Of course, I did get long barbecue grills for the long weekend...but that's
> uncorrelated risk.
>
> Best,
>
> Tim Morge
>
> The Omega Man (TM) wrote:
> >
> > Mark and Tim,
> >
> > What's the play in currencies right now?
> >
> > Are you trading the extreme in the dollar? Are you shorting emerging
> > markets and/or their currencies and/or their bonds? If yes, which ones
> and
> > with what vehicles?
> >
> > All the best,
> >
> > The Omega Man
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: Omega List <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Friday, September 04, 1998 5:13 PM
> > Subject: Re: Velocity, acceleration, tensors -- as it realtes trend
> > trading...
> >
> > Subject: Re: Velocity, acceleration, tensors -- as it realtes trend
> > trading...
> >
> > >> Are there any others out there who want to defend countertrend trading?
> > >
> > >I probably shouldn't speak for Mark... he does that quite well for
> himself.
> > :-) But I interpreted his countertrend" post somewhat differently. I took
> it
> > to mean *TRY* to pick off the top or the bottom.
> > >If it doesn't work, reverse and go the other way. So, he's really trading
> > both trends and countertrends.
> > >
> > > Dennis
> >
> > Dennis, I ve become the same as all those traders I've worked for in the
> > past. They would tell me the system to program and it would be crap.
> They
> > would say well thats the system all the details I've given you. But they
> > had done some things for so many years that they forgot that they did it
> at
> > all. They just took it for granted that every one knew what they were
> > talking about.
> >
> > I assume the following: Markets trend very little, when they do its
> > impressive sure. How will you pick the correct market to catch the trend?
> > You wont its like the lottery and if you do it wont be because you know
> what
> > your doing. Thus I assume every market top and bottom to be sold and
> bought
> > if my systems tell me to. The trends take care of themselves, for if it
> is
> > truly a trend the systems reverse and go with it. Simply I'm a counter
> > trend trader with a backup plan for when I'm wrong. I'm wrong very
> little,
> > I do just fine counter trending and I'm counter trending 90 % of the time.
> > Wouldn't it be easy for me to trade the trend ? Da! Breakout channel,
> Da!
> > moving average, Da! 3 higher highs, Da! on and on.. I'm not stupid I can
> > trend trade can you counter trend trade? Thats what I want to know, you
> > have pissed me off sort of and if you dont agree then dont agree. But
> dont
> > run me down button hole, maybe you could learn something that would help
> you
> > sell some software that would really make some of your clients. I have
> the
> > most problems with vendors on this list and why? MB
|