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In a message dated 98-09-04 16:02:45 EDT, you write:
Brian,
Not withstanding the subjectivity of the terms used. That is, the 'trendiness'
of a given market within a given time-frame.....:
Would you still try to identify the trend and then trade with it if you could
acurately identify the turning points?
The experience possessed by the proponents of counter-trend trading may have
enabled them to develop very accurate signal/systems.
If you can pick the turns regularly (and it's a very big 'if'), your 'length
of line' will be longer than waiting for the 'breakout/confirmation'.
Trading with the trend does, in some respects, forego trading opportunities.
It is 'safer' only in as much as the trend is insurance against the
inaccuracies of the system or indicators employed.
Anyone (or anything) that can pick 'em consistently will always have more
opportunities to profit. Given the percentage of the time that a market is
'trending', they have more opportunities to trade AND be able to catch more of
the move.
So, to the following list add:
4. Shit-hot indicator/system/intuition.
<< Question: Is it the right for you? Based on the above, only if you have:
1. Have many years of experience
2. And/or Have advanced math experience
3. And/or Have the $$$ to buy in a decline, buy in a decline, buy in a
decline (or sell)
Well what do those do who don't have this? The answer is trade with the
trend. >>
The last line is still good advice.
Rgds,
Kim.
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