|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Michael and Mike,
You guys say a lot of the same things and my experience has proven that to
be true. In one of the original posts to this thread I stated that on an
intraday basis fading moves was a good idea. Day trading is entirely
different then trading of dailies or weeklies. And time frame is a critical
factor. Also countertrend trading may be more profitable but it requires
more energy, more sophistication and more time. Very impressive gains can
still be made just simply fading corrections in the direction of the trend.
And with so many markets out there I think you owe it to yourself to trade
where probablitites are greatest. My opinion.
I'm betting there are some people out there going wow maybe I should take a
look at what this guy's (these posts) saying. Mark Brown and all those guys
make a lot of money countertrend trading but has all this experience and
stuff but I live in timbucktwo and don't have that. So how do I trade
succesfully?
It's just the other side of the coin. That's all. And no one has said
anything nasty about anybody and it's all been done in constructive
atmosphere but some people still see it as a insulting. Can't help that. I
think this thread has been constructuve for many.
Your posts were.
Regards,
Brian.
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Stewart [mailto:MPST@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 4:22 PM
To: bnm@xxxxxxxxxx
Cc: Omega
Subject: Re: Velocity, acceleration, tensors -- as it realtes trend
trading...
Brian,
I probably have less experience trading the S&P than most on the list and
I'm not a rocket scientist either- although I've worked with some, but I'll
defend countertrend trading. IMHO you need to define countertrend trading
with regard to time frames on different markets - Some it works, some it
doesn't - If you wannabe flat and sleep at night and day trade the S&P and
aim to swing trade by identifying high probability (lower risk) turning
points in the market then the last 7 weeks has been better than ever and
you don't need much fancy software to do it - I call "velocity" and
"acceleration" MOMENTUM - (rising and falling) and you can pick up when to
fade a rally on the first continuos downtick of the cash market and a cheap
indicator from Rina systems together with a couple of others which Omega
supply for free.
If your happy to hold on for a week or two or three - then the time frame
moves up to 5/30/81/daily bars - thats too rich for me with an o/n range of
over 2500 points at times-
I understand that some clients of top ten S&P daytrading systems have been
miffed lately as either their systems haven't traded and when they have
they've got whipped out by the volatility - some market conditions are
better traded from what you see - Of course S&P isn't the only market - but
show me a daytrading trend system in the S&P which hasn't been stuffed
lately ?
>Traders,
>
>Interesting. There's a lot of comparatively advanced math used creatively
>here to develop RJP's exact countertrend entry point system. Good food for
>thought and a way to spend a lot of time but is it really necessary?
>
>So far the people that have spoke up in defense of countertrend trading
are:
>
>Stewart Taylor
>Mark Brown
>RJP
>
>What's the pattern here?
>
>Mark Brown has been trading for eons and with a stint trading
professionally
>at Smith -Barney (I'm assuming that's what SB stands for). In addition to
>that he's a programmer.
>
>Stewart Taylor has AT LEAST 15+ years of experience trading nothing but
>futures and manages an investment firm -- I think it's his own. Big bucks
>and lots of experience here.
>
>From the sound of it RJP either has a real good grasp of some advanced math
>concepts and has used them creatively or has the money to pay someone who
>has this to come in and teach him about it as it applies to the markets.
>Again, lots of experience.
>
>So what's the pattern here? All these guys have tons of experience and
have
>access to resources the average (successful) trader may or may not have.
>Experience is essential when developing systems that attempt to pick
>bottoms.
>
>Question: Is it the right for you? Based on the above, only if you have:
>
>1. Have many years of experience
>2. And/or Have advanced math experience
>3. And/or Have the $$$ to buy in a decline, buy in a decline, buy in a
>decline (or sell)
>
>Well what do those do who don't have this? The answer is trade with the
>trend.
>
>Again, it's a fact. The probabilities favor buying dips in a trend or some
>other methods of trading witht the trend. There's too many markets out
>there to trade with the trend and life's too short to try and develop a
>system that works countertrending when I can make equal money trading with
>the trend.
>
>The message to me is that it's easier to make BIG money trading with the
>trend.
>
>Are there any others out there who want to defend countertrend trading?
>
>Good Trading.
>Brian.
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Val Clancy [mailto:valclancy@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Friday, September 04, 1998 10:21 AM
>To: RJP
>Cc: Omega List
>Subject: Re: Velocity, acceleration, tensors
>
>Comments follow:
>
>RJP wrote:
>
>> Velocity and acceleration calculations even at their most basic levels
can
>> reveal probable reversals with reasonable degree of accuracy. Such
studies
>> (including Browian motion) can be successfully applied to commodity
>trading
>> and system development but how?The answer is indeed not a simple one and
>is
>> beyond the scope of most traders.
>
>I think that velocity and acceleration of price or any other variable can
be
>used
>but are not of highest importance. You can measure acceleration in buying
or
>selling or buying / selling speed. This can lead to better accuracy in
>determining
>a possible magnitude of the price move. However acceleration and velocity
>can
>never be main market variables since they are derivatives.
>
>>
>>
>> A scalar is used to describe an event with one number, such as the
closing
>> price for a commodity. Vectors are used to describe events with more than
>> one number i.e. open, high, low, and close to describe one vertical bar.
>> Speed or non-directional velocity is described by a scalar and velocity
>> which is directional by vectors.
>
>Not clear about " velocity by vectorS" - I think you meant by a vector.
>
>> Events such as market movement which cant
>> be easily described by vectors use tensors instead.
>
>Give me an example here how you would define a market movement in tensor.
>
>
>
>
>> Commodity systems are
>> tensors which expand, compress, rotate, deviate time, price and their
>> derivatives.
>
>Explain compress, rotate.
>
>> Tensors can change the length and direction of lines, but only
>> super tensors can change a straight line into a curved line.
>
>Give me an example of tensor vs super tensor.
>
>> Commodity
>> systems based on super tensor mathematics can reveal powerful
information;
>
>Like what information? give me a couple of results here.
>
>> backed with statistical foundations it is indeed possible to develop
>> anti-trend systems incorporating physical relationships with accuracy's
of
>> better than 80% as to identifying the exact price (sometimes to the tick)
>at
>> which a move will terminate and reverse.
>
>Sounds like over optimization to me.
>
>> It is essential that all trend
>> following systems incorporate in some form or other anti-trend components
>as
>> studies that I have conducted have shown that the performance of such
>> systems way exceed the normal trend following systems.
>>
>
>I pure/good system does not have to have a trend definition built in it.
The
>word trend
>is confusing and hard to define in math terms.
>
>> I'm interested in comments and / or a discussion on how other traders
have
>> applied velocity etc to commodity trading.
>
>Here is an car example: if a car has 20 gallon gas tank, travels and a
speed
>of 40 mphat 30 mile per gallon fuel efficiency. How many miles will
>the car go before it stops
>if there are 10 gallons in the tank? = 300 miles at 40 mph.
>
>>
>>
>> Thanks
>>
>> RJP
>
>You can describe market in vectors/tensors/matrix. However tensors imply
>that there is a
>transformational law that exists between them.Care to comment?
>Val.
>
>
|