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When I look at my weekly and monthly historical data back to early '20s, it
looks like a bear market to me. Although I've noted many similarities to late
20's, I'm not ready to figure we're headed for a 90% decline. 25% appears
certain and, at best, I think we're in for sideways action until we get well
clear of the millenium. The other shoe here would be a change of trend in the
US$ and that could send US equities right to the mat ala Japan and US in '29.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: JParris@xxxxxxx <JParris@xxxxxxx>; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
<omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 12:05 PM
Subject: Re: Rapidly changing fortunes
>What do our back testing gurus say. Is this a correction or the start of a
>bear market? Surely we have enough info. to back test. C'mon it is time to
>put all those gizmos together and give us your best shot. Bull market, bear
>market or correction.
>-----Original Message-----
>From: JParris@xxxxxxx <JParris@xxxxxxx>
>To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 10:26 AM
>Subject: Rapidly changing fortunes
>
>
>>JAN 1998
>>
>>Corp earnings are expected to grow at 10% to 12% this year . Multiples are
>a
>>little high but the S&P 500 should produce another 20% to 30% gain. Asia is
>>having a little trouble but it was discounted during the Oct correction.
>>Besides, Asia only accounts for 3% of our GDP and our economy looks
>fantastic.
>>In fact, it couldn't look better. There is not a cloud on the horizon.
>>
>>AUG 1998
>>
>>Where the hell did this storm come from?
>>
>>
>>If this keeps up I'm going to have to stop listening to these economic
>>forecasts and develop some trading skills!
>>
>>
>> Jim
>>
>>PS How come a bright guy like Stanley Druckenmiller only has a time horizon
>of
>>3 to 6 months?
>>
>
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