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I always picture the market (thru charts) as a horse climbing a mountain. As in
the US
indices that horse has been going up for some time, (of course from time to
time, it pauses
to rest or eat). So far, me thinks (technically) it is a bit tired, since late
July, was not climbing anymore but sort of wandering here and there, and late
this month (August)
I see it walking down the hill that is, so far ......
The last report is, the horse is going down, I position myself (act
accordingly)to play on that side. But that does not mean the horse anytime( but
will still be flexible) will reverse and go up, but it has to convince me, its
really going up by going to a new higher hill than before, otherwise its going
down as of now. especially its behavior as of end of the last week and
end of this month August..
When there's smoke there's fire, having seen the smoke but not yet the fire.
So,cannot yet confirm whether it is correction or bear yet.
To confirm a bear market, some time should pass, it is still too early to tell.
And I would argue to death my belief the market should be going down for months
before one can say
it is a bear.
Am not in the predicting business, but in the observation business.
....................Live reporting from the
Internet..................
Apologies for my weirdness,
Felix
Neal T. Weintraub wrote:
> What do our back testing gurus say. Is this a correction or the start of a
> bear market? Surely we have enough info. to back test. C'mon it is time to
> put all those gizmos together and give us your best shot. Bull market, bear
> market or correction.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: JParris@xxxxxxx <JParris@xxxxxxx>
> To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 10:26 AM
> Subject: Rapidly changing fortunes
>
> >JAN 1998
> >
> >Corp earnings are expected to grow at 10% to 12% this year . Multiples are
> a
> >little high but the S&P 500 should produce another 20% to 30% gain. Asia is
> >having a little trouble but it was discounted during the Oct correction.
> >Besides, Asia only accounts for 3% of our GDP and our economy looks
> fantastic.
> >In fact, it couldn't look better. There is not a cloud on the horizon.
> >
> >AUG 1998
> >
> >Where the hell did this storm come from?
> >
> >
> >If this keeps up I'm going to have to stop listening to these economic
> >forecasts and develop some trading skills!
> >
> >
> > Jim
> >
> >PS How come a bright guy like Stanley Druckenmiller only has a time horizon
> of
> >3 to 6 months?
> >
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