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With regards to Bob Fulks answer, Randomness is a phenomenom that us humans use
to describe behaviour of complex functions that cannot be described very easily,
it is a myth, think about this. How easy is it to make computers or machines to
create random numbers, most computer based random number generators use some
inherant algorithm or very simply some calculation based upon the working of its
system clock, meaning? it is very very difficult to get machines or computers to
recreate randomness. How many lottery machines around the world have had problems
with this, lots. The markets are no more fractal than my backside is a cream
bun, the markets can be predicted and within the next few years system designers
will be using such methods, how do I know, I have seen one in action, true. I am
not going to mention any names or tell porkies about this, it is fact. I agree
with the Omega man ( the artist formerly known as trader J ) is spot on, raw
computing power and intelligent sytem design that automates buy sell decisions
will have an edge far more superior than us mere mortals, as for open outcry, its
finished, technology will win, why? because of hive action, that is the masses
will demand it and anyone who is foollish enough to stay behind will lose.
Anyway sorry for rambling
Mark Savage
Bob Fulks wrote:
> At 3:33 PM -0400 8/3/98, Neil Harrington wrote:
>
> >I don't disagree with your observations, but those seem to be conflicting
> >pieces of information. If the markets have a truly fractal nature, then
> >systems should perform similarly in different time frames (unless commission
> >and slippage become too significant in smaller time frames).
> >
> >Does anyone have any thoughts on that apparent paradox?
>
> At 6:01 PM -0400 8/3/98, Steven Buss wrote:
>
> >Suffice to say that the markets are fractal. But I have no idea whether
> >different timeframes have PRECISELY the same structure. It seems to me that
> >it would be surprising if they had PRECISELY the same structure. Maybe the
> >question is really whether they have a different enough structure to take
> >into consideration for trading. The good news is that this is an empirical
> >question.
>
> I agree that most markets have fractal characteristics but they also have
> characteristics unique to different time frames.
>
> For example, look at a daily chart of the S&P cash index. You can easily
> see that local lows tend to occur about 10 bars apart.
>
> Now look at a 45 min chart of the same market (9 times the resolution). Do
> lows occur 10 bars apart? Nope. More like 45 bars apart which is near the
> same dates/times they appear on the daily chart.
>
> I think random behavior tends to be fractal and most tradable behavior
> tends to be time related. So trading systems probably have to be designed
> with a specific time compression in mind.
>
> Bob Fulks
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