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I suspect a lot of high performance systems will go out the window because they
rely on indicators which do little more than filter time and price. Consider
that in Bear Markets, the longer term charts will begin to resemble the declines
in the shorter term charts - I've noticed this in my 20 tick and 5 minute
charts. Many of today's systems have a strong upside performance bias and will
tend to go to hell in declining markets. That's where those who follow raw time
and price have an edge: the pivots still plot, the channels still go up and
down, and the fibs still project and retrace ... just a lot faster.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Neal T. Weintraub <thevindicator@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: felixty@xxxxxxxxxxx <felixty@xxxxxxxxxxx>; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
<omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, August 04, 1998 10:11 AM
Subject: Re: REAL-ESTATE BUBBLE and maybe moe
>I believe Dennis said a few days ago that a true systems guy wouldn't care if
we
>were in a downtrend, he'd merely take his signals and trade away. A question
>that nags the back of my mind...if we haven't had an all out downtrend in the
>stock indexes in 20 years or so, we don't have any tick data to build systems
on
>that trade well in these types of downtrends--and I agree with you, downtrends
>trade very different from uptrends. I wonder just how well current systems will
>cope with vicious, prolonged downtrends? And further, if they don't cope well,
>how many systems developers will have the market experience/knowlege to develop
>new systems that cope well with a spiralling downtrend in the stock markets?
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