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As a trader, it is difficult to trade commodities on the long side. Even
though your indicators may say the opposite. i am factoring out the US
dollar and stock market for now. A falling market falls three times as fast
in one-half the time. Everyone and most producers are racing for the exit
doors. Amazing we all feared inflation now we could have more riots overseas
because of deflation.Curently, many coomodities are on there way to new
contract lows. The bear spreads are working which is the best indicator for
market direction (apology to LeBeau I know my good buddy loves ADX) Forget
all you have learned about being over sold and stochastics. Certain markets
can get over sold for a very long time...especially when producers have a
glut of product.
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> Just came back from Hongkong, classy and regular department stores
were
>having sales to 80% discount which has become the norm.(Bally shoes 50%),
Some
>ads are (example Daimaru, "Thank You for 38 years of business this is our
last
>month of operation.". The only thing going for Hongkong is cheap workers
from
>Mainland China who are willing to work for less than one half wages.
Middle
>class are getting wiped out left and right. Major companies are regularly
>announcing layoffs, so things are still going to the dogs, still too early,
>what Asia needs right now is a massive infusion of capital in all sectors,
>especially the banks, BUT, from where???? Japan?? IMF?? Talk with newly
>elected President's (Philippines), people who just came in and found out
the
>government's coffers are empty and debt up to their ears,their next step
is
>cut down on all spending (planned and programmed) specially infrastructure
>(guys, you know what happens when a government stop pumping into the
economy?
>Since we are not yet a consumer economy ,yet this is disastrous), this will
be
>the same around the whole region. Right now, we monitor Hongkong as the
most
>crucial for Asia,frankly in my opinion, things will still get worse there
>before improving.
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