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Neal:
One thing that is interesting to ponder...and it makes me feel very old, bu the
way...We have not seen a prolonged bear market in the US stock market in the
1980's and 1990's, and so very few traders are even trading that have
experienced a prolonged stock market decline. I know as soon as they read this,
some people are going to post that we have had several 'crashes' and they count.
Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think so.
The other argument I've heard is that the economic cycles have changed because
of technological changes/improvements and so, the economy no longer 'needs' this
sort of cleansing cycle...again, maybe, maybe not. I don't think so.
I believe Dennis said a few days ago that a true systems guy wouldn't care if we
were in a downtrend, he'd merely take his signals and trade away. A question
that nags the back of my mind...if we haven't had an all out downtrend in the
stock indexes in 20 years or so, we don't have any tick data to build systems on
that trade well in these types of downtrends--and I agree with you, downtrends
trade very different from uptrends. I wonder just how well current systems will
cope with vicious, prolonged downtrends? And further, if they don't cope well,
how many systems developers will have the market experience/knowlege to develop
new systems that cope well with a spiralling downtrend in the stock markets?
Just my inquiring mind, doing its thing...
Tim Morge
Neal T. Weintraub wrote:
>
> As a trader, it is difficult to trade commodities on the long side. Even
> though your indicators may say the opposite. i am factoring out the US
> dollar and stock market for now. A falling market falls three times as fast
> in one-half the time. Everyone and most producers are racing for the exit
> doors. Amazing we all feared inflation now we could have more riots overseas
> because of deflation.Curently, many coomodities are on there way to new
> contract lows. The bear spreads are working which is the best indicator for
> market direction (apology to LeBeau I know my good buddy loves ADX) Forget
> all you have learned about being over sold and stochastics. Certain markets
> can get over sold for a very long time...especially when producers have a
> glut of product.
> >
> >
> > Just came back from Hongkong, classy and regular department stores
> were
> >having sales to 80% discount which has become the norm.(Bally shoes 50%),
> Some
> >ads are (example Daimaru, "Thank You for 38 years of business this is our
> last
> >month of operation.". The only thing going for Hongkong is cheap workers
> from
> >Mainland China who are willing to work for less than one half wages.
> Middle
> >class are getting wiped out left and right. Major companies are regularly
> >announcing layoffs, so things are still going to the dogs, still too early,
> >what Asia needs right now is a massive infusion of capital in all sectors,
> >especially the banks, BUT, from where???? Japan?? IMF?? Talk with newly
> >elected President's (Philippines), people who just came in and found out
> the
> >government's coffers are empty and debt up to their ears,their next step
> is
> >cut down on all spending (planned and programmed) specially infrastructure
> >(guys, you know what happens when a government stop pumping into the
> economy?
> >Since we are not yet a consumer economy ,yet this is disastrous), this will
> be
> >the same around the whole region. Right now, we monitor Hongkong as the
> most
> >crucial for Asia,frankly in my opinion, things will still get worse there
> >before improving.
> >
> >
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