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From: Ron Augustine <RonAug@xxxxxxxx>
>> is it based on back-testing or real-time trading?<<
Now that's a topic worth discussing.
What are all the reasons why backtesting and real-time trading may produce
different results. And just as importantly, which factors controlling this
difference are most important in short, medium and long term trading?
For example, for real short term trading, 10 minute slippage on each trade can
wipe you out, whereas on monthly trading, its considerably less important.
However, long term trading needs to deal with contract expiration.
Anyone want to start a list of factors for short, medium and long term trading?
- Mark Jurik
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At 11:00 PM 3/26/98 -0800, you wrote:
>>>maybe your comments will help some and prompt others who disagree to provide
>proof that supports their argument...<<
>
>When it comes to probability, the only proof I know centers around the Law of
>Large Numbers, but its too large to be useful here.
>
>How about this as food for thought....
>
>If, as is suggested, that the market's behavior one year has not much to do
>with any other (or something like that) then it would follow that it should be
>nearly impossible for a simple trading system, that makes about 1 trade/month
>to be profitable over a 10-15 year period. But it can be done. Therefore,
>something must be wrong with the premise.
>
>- Mark Jurik
>
>
>
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