|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
At 08:17 PM 3/26/98, Jim wrote wrote:
> I am a fulltime stock index futures trader, and have been for four years.
>
> backtesting beyond the past few months is a complete waste of time. What
> happened in 1982, 1987, 1992, 1995, or 1997 has absolutely no bearing on
> how the stock index futures trade today.
I disagree with the comment in general that backtesting beyond a few months
is a complete waste of time.
In your studies, you may not have seen any virtue in backtesting beyond a
few months but that does not mean others have not. Others have simply seen
things they may have found useful that you did not see.
There are certainly times I have gone into historic data and gleaned
information that has helped me profitably trade today. This information
is very important to me. But that is just a function of my system. For
yours, that may not be true.
However, the fact that you have determined for your system that long historical
testing is of no virtue is a virtue in itself. Thus, it cannot be a complete
waste of time - even for you.
Chris Norrie
|