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Last we were speaking of:
To have a system that works, it would have to take into account all the various
conditions of a specific market. These have common terms such as: Trends,
Congestions, Tops, Bottoms, etc. There are even terms that are much more
specific within each of these. Double Tops, Triple Bottoms, Rising Penants, etc.
This is all 'old' technical analysis history. We are in the modern ages now.
All of this was codified when all that a trader (except hi$ institutional's) had
was paper charts, no computers, no automation. Technical Analysis (TA) was done
by hand and mind on paper.
Continuation:
When computers came about, the first people to use them in trading solutions
were not traders. They were for the most part trained in other professions that
allowed a fast and easy transposition to their use, engineers, scientists,
accountants, mathematicians, programmers, etc.
Partnerships were formed after each found the need, or they acquired the skills
of the other, and were successful to a lesser degree.
Initially, the chartests held nothing but disdain for the computer and its
proponents. Rightfully so, since none of the early trading analysis with
computers were (those visible) successful. Then, computer testing came about.
I remember a program called MRL (Market Research Language) and others, still
around today.
>From there various programs, that were really canned systems, came about. The
business of Technical Analysis computer style was born. At that birth time there
was Omega Research and Bill was calling for orders directly.
This is all history. It has been about 12yrs since the turn in Technical
Analysis (TA) from hand drawn paper charts to computerized stand-alone technical
systems that can generate market orders with out human assistance.
I wanted to my view of this history, right or wrong, as a background to what I
am about to say. When there is a cloned robotic man with a computer mind that is
equal to or superior to man (such as 'Data') then I will believe that a Trading
System will exceed a experienced Trader's skill in trading markets over time.
Currenty, I believe what is defined as a system, to be a small part of the whole
picture of trading. It is a canned repeatable recording of one small
characteristic within a market's trading price relationship that works 'X%age'
of time for the current and past tested time. Hence, I do not believe there
exists currently, what I would define as, a system. One that can track the
market's characteristics and adapt to them and trade profitably, can take into
account what Alan Greenspan will say on FOMC days, what the GDP or Export
Reports or the Clinton chronicles can affect, let alone the noise of other news
or floor traders stops hunting quests will do to price and trends. To me this
would be a "system" it would take into account the COT data, the ranpant
uptrends and downtrends, the congestions, the volatility changes, the range
expansions and the range bound conditions. It would adapt and maximize it's
strategies.
Having said that, I assume that my definition of 'system' differs from most on
this list. But, that is what I feel would be required to take a trader out of
the picture and replace his abilities.
I do see the possibilities of what Bob Brickey and the true wizzards of
programming, Neural and Artificial Intelligence teachers and students, if
appkied to the markets, could come more closely to exceeding most traders
profits than any other. It still may not become a system but sure will
eventually be in every trader's tool kit.
There are those on this list that might agree with me here and disagree with
everything else I've previously said. I do not expect agreement or disagreement.
Just putting my thoughts out there because some of you have so graciously done
so. I hope that some of you will have good contributions regarding this area and
some will 'coil and hiss'. This is not a personal affront to any beliefs held.
My attempt is to see and utilize the benefits of the EL or program Code folks
and their systems along with the discretionary or empirical observers and
traders. I never intend to take sides since I use both and even sometimes in
harmony.
Even if The Code or Mark Brown or Mark Jurik or Bob Brickey emailed me "the
System" Killer of all empiricalists and comsumpter of man's Sole and mind, I
would not use it blindly. If it were locked, it would never see the screen. I
would try to unlock it, find out how or would send it back. Black box cannot
ever substitute for the trader. There was a big discussion here, with good
inputs on this. It is a matter of the archives. If I had such a system, given
or not, I would not use it without paying for it. I have had free systems given,
never used, those used and became part of my knowledge or trading, I bought.
Above all, I believe that you can only see what you can be. The fuel to observe
and think is called Integrity. It is what's left if it wasn't traded for
"some-thing" that you just "had to have" by any action and at any cost.
Thanks,
See U
ATom
planeacres@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
What's left when there is no body and no mind? That is the Question.
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