|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
>
> The way things are going in Washington these days.....the only way we
will be
> able to get our hands on any CODE is to get it free.....because the good
ol
> boys at the CFTC......are gonna put a stop to anyone selling it.
>
> Think about what this means to poor saps like us.....more than a few of
us cut
> our teeth on those $ 3000 systems. We learned from our mistakes.......and
went
> onward. Problem is that the next guy is not even gonna be able to buy any
> lousy $3000 CODE. Big brother is gonna save you from yourself.
>
> Maybe this guy the "CODE" is onto somthing..........
>
Hi Mark-
Yeah, I bet you were also a member of Club 3000 too!...<g>
I sometimes think the blame is the computer. (what else ?) Now that the
computer is coming out of its infancy the folks in the know realize that it
is great for predicting science, physics and the like to a decimal point.
But somehow we all thought it could be applied equally to predicting human
behavior. Evidently the lawsuits and large number of complaints have
rattled the Feds and they are slowly seeing the light. Almost like when
atomic energy was discovered they predicted that by now all cars, aircraft
and homes would be run with it....nice idea, but...
Anyway, I think money will ALWAYS be lost by 95% of traders. (just like in
the pre-computer days) BUT, I think the way these systems are being
marketed as the sure road-to-riches is what pisses them off.
Perhaps one of first systems marketed to the public in mass (not counting
the REAL early days) was probably the Trident System with Larry Williams as
one of the promoters in the very early 70's? Cost was $1500!
Many of us have the book, I'm sure. It got to the point were (yes, I hate
to admit it) I even attended a Larry Williams seminar in NYC for $2,500
back in 1992...all about volatility breakout systems. They were turning
people away...about 125 attendees X $2500 = $312,000 ...nice take for
Larry. He did it again in 3-4 other cities, and again the following month.
BTW, the stuff I learned simply set me back six months screwing around with
the wrong approach.
Many ask....Then WHY do guys sell their stuff if they could trade it and
make a fortune...IF IT WORKED, that is? Well, the reason is this: Let's say
a "system" really does work and makes 25% per year. I'll guess the average
trader has $30,0000 to trade with. $30,000X 25% =$7,500 profit per year.
The guy is now living at the poverty level. If the system does like most,
he will be lucky to break even....BUT for the benefit of the doubt, say
it's +25% for the year. NOW, a well marketed system (even if it doesn't
work) can retail for $2,000-$3,000 as we all know. Sell 100 copies and
you've got 300K+...... See what I mean? Do you think it's profitable to
be a vendor OR a real trader? ???
To really make money as a real trader you need a tremendous edge that very
few other traders are currently using....and /or trade a LARGE
account....but EITHER way you need a UNIQUE edge or you're dead in the
water. That edge will not be found with Stocastics and other canned,
marketed systems and indicators, etc......they are just too overused.
** Get this: I personally believe that a market price chart is simply a
composite of the cleverist way you could possibly draw a line to screw the
majority of people out of their money. If I were the "market god" who got
to draw the market each day/week/month.... I would first let it trend for
awhile to suck in the "turtles"...then have a real sharp break to stop them
out with a small loss, then chop up and down to whip saw them further
while pulling in the "range" traders... then have a fast vertical move up
that wipes out the "rangers", but sucks in new trenders.....etc, etc. After
a very long chop then have a nice, clean, long uninterrupted trending move
that the trenders will miss 'cuz of past frustration...but at the same time
screwing the "rangers" again....on and on.
I think that is how the script is written...depending on what
methods/systems are being used and which are most popular at the time.....
Crazy, isn't it?
In fact, I ask myself that question many times throughout the day....what
can the market do RIGHT NOW to screw the majority....That really works
sometimes. Try to decide who has been getting in with a particular hope or
method/system. Many times the obvious is obviously wrong - (Granville)
Sometimes I think the money simply gets passed temporarily from trader to
trader and in the end it goes to a few good traders and, of course, to the
clearing/brokerage firms. Even 95% of the floor traders get slammed over
time...it's a revolving door there too....no different. But, I love it!
What a great job and challege.
"This is the life you have chosen" (from the Godfather)
(Maybe this type of letter should be placed in the vendor system ads as a
testimonial, huh?)
Good Luck !
Tom Cathey
|