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Re: omega-digest Digest V98 #33



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Paul Altman wrote:

> Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say 7.5% a week.  This would,
> in two years, run $10,000 up to only $18,470,569.  In all fairness, this
> _is_ probably the average profit that TS day-traders see.

At the risk of repeating myself, (a) NO ONE can realize anywhere near this figure
with a larger portfolio, and (b) you're forgetting that one needs money to live
here.  More realistically, say someone is working with 100 grand, and they are
getting 7.5% a week.  Now, some of this has to go to pay the bills, and some will
go to pay taxes - let's say there is 2% left over to compound.  As the portfolio
grows, obviously the trader will be unable to sustain this nice return, although
his expenses will become less and less a percentage of his weekly gain.  As it
grows, his percentage return will inevitably keep declining, although we would
still expect it to seriously outclass what is attainable through investing.

The whole point of the 5-10% figure was to represent what a skilled day trader,
trading on margin, could achieve (obviously, with a smaller portfolio).  It was
simply to illustrate the sharp contrast between what can is possible with this
method in comparison to buy-and-hold strategies.


Regards,
A.J.