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Again great work Jose. Nice study. Thanks.
KS
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jose Silva"
<josesilva22@xxxx> wrote:
> Maurice, the Synthetic cycle generator's plot is not meant to be
> smooth, but rather an artificial representation of price and its
> possible (very) basic components.
>
> For best/easiest results, plot the indicator in a separate window
> using the default settings.
>
>
> jose '-)
> http://www.metastocktools.com
>
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Maurice Odekerken"
<maurice.
> odekerken@xxxx> wrote:
> > Could you shoot a picture in paint (Alt-Print Screen) en some
> > parameters to go with that, please?
> > My line, is not smooth at all..................
> >
> >
> > -----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
> > Van: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:
> equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Namens Jose Silva
> > Verzonden: vrijdag 9 september 2005 16:18
> > Aan: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Onderwerp: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Synthetic cycle generator
> >
> > > * a straight-line sloping component in there to simplify
> > > the long-term fundamental influence.
> >
> > The long-term fundamental influence - I guess that would be sine
> wave
> > 1.
> >
> >
> > > I'm stuck with that - can't do it without screwing up the nice
> > > smooth sinewave shape.
> >
> > I can't think of a solution either, that would not destroy the
> > integrity of the sine waves. Randomizing/increasing the
frequency/
> > amplitude of the sine waves would unfortunately also destroy the
> whole
> > point of this exercise.
> >
> >
> > As for the point of this exercise, one could view and compare
the
> > different sine wave components of the synthetic plot, to the
> different
> > groups of investors, traders, day-traders that affect a normal
price
> > pattern.
> >
> > The large investors with the deep pockets would be the
commercials
> > and/or large funds, accumulating/selling stock or contracts over
a
> > longer period of time. This would equate to the large sine wave
> > component in the synthetic pattern generator.
> >
> > The smaller/quicker traders would account for the
smaller/quicker
> > influences, and so on, right down to the small random market
noise -
> > which just happens to be generated by my own trading. :)
> >
> >
> > No doubt the markets are a lot more complex than this artificial
> > facsimile, but it can be one of those tools that can help in
one's
> > understanding of the machinations in the markets.
> >
> >
> > jose '-)
> > http://www.metastocktools.com
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Andy"
<AndyDavidson@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Getting there Jose. I didn't mean for you to actually take up
the
> > > gauntlet when I suggested the extra factors, but I should have
> known
> > > better! Glad you did though as it's starting to look
quite "real"
> > > eh? Head-and-shoulders, ascending/descending wedges, pennants,
> > > 3-wavers/5-wavers.they're all there!
> > >
> > >
> > > Just needs two more things (if you're up for the challenge
still
> !!
> > ):
> > >
> > > * a straight-line sloping component in there to simplify the
long-
> > > term fundamental influence.e.g. cum(1)/lastvalue(cum(1))
*strength
> > > factor ??
> > > * Hurst said the cyclic component duration *and magnitude*
> > > fluctuate slowly with time (both are related in that deviation
to
> > > longer duration/period corresponds to a deviation towards
larger
> > > magnitude). I'm stuck with that - can't do it without screwing
up
> > > the nice smooth sinewave shape. I'm not asking you to do it
either
> > > because it's probably a bridge too far just to make an academic
> > > point.but if you have any ideas spring straight to mind it'd be
> > > nice.
> > >
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > >
> > > Andy
> > >
> > >
> > > _____
> > >
> > > From: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:
> > equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > On Behalf Of Jose Silva
> > > Sent: Friday, September 09, 2005 5:49 AM
> > > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Synthetic cycle generator
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Ok, try this pattern generator version:
> > >
> > > =========================
> > > Synthetic cycle generator
> > > =========================
> > > ---8<--------------------------
> > >
> > > { 5-wave synthetic cycle generator v2.0 }
> > > { Refresh chart for new simulations }
> > >
> > > { Download Random.dll from
> > > http://www.traderhelp.net and place in
> > > MetaStock External Function DLLs folder }
> > >
> > > { Basic idea from Andy Davidson at:
> > > http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock , and:
> > > http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/technica.htm }
> > >
> > > { CCopyright 2005 Jose Silva
> > > For personal use only.
> > > http://www.metastocktools.com }
> > >
> > > { User inputs }
> > > plot:=Input("Sine-wave cycles: [1]Composite, [2]
Individual",1,2,
> 1
> > );
> > > Sval1:=Input("Sine 1 value",-720,720,1);
> > > Sval2:=Input("Sine 2 value",-720,720,3.5);
> > > Sval3:=Input("Sine 3 value",-720,720,12);
> > > Sval4:=Input("Sine 4 value",-720,720,42);
> > > Sval5:=Input("Sine 5 value",-720,720,150);
> > >
> > > { Random generator engine }
> > > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > >
> > > { Sine components }
> > > sine1:=Sin(Cum(Sval1*x));
> > > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > > sine2:=Sin(Cum(Sval2*x))*.5;
> > > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > > sine3:=Sin(Cum(Sval3*x))*.25;
> > > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > > sine4:=Sin(Cum(Sval4*x))*.125;
> > > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > > sine5:=Sin(Cum(Sval5*x))*.0625;
> > >
> > > { Composite Sine }
> > > composite:=sine1+sine2+sine3+sine4+sine5;
> > >
> > > { Plot in own window }
> > > If(plot=1,composite,sine1);
> > > If(plot=1,composite,sine2);
> > > If(plot=1,composite,sine3);
> > > If(plot=1,composite,sine4);
> > > If(plot=1,composite,sine5)
> > >
> > > ---8<--------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > > jose '-)
> > > http://www.metastocktools.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Andy"
<AndyDavidson@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > Nice one Jose! I was thinking about trying to do something
like
> that
> > > myself, but I'm sure that what took you 10 minutes would have
> taken
> > > me the best part of a day.Thanks for saving me the time!!
> > >
> > >
> > > Now, if you imagine two additional factors:
> > >
> > > 1) An underlying trend represented by a straight upward/
> > > downward sloping line, or even a much longer-period cycle, that
> > > represents the "fundamental" influence on a market.
> > >
> > > 2) That the periodicity of all the cycles is not constant
but
> > > has some minor variation about their nominal value.
> > >
> > > And you can see how, when lots of "simple" stuff is added
together
> > > it can easily look very complicated and random! This is the
> general
> > > gist of what Hurst was on about.
> > >
> > >
> > > MG, what's interesting to me is that if you plot Jose's
indicator
> > > and look at the individual cycles, then zoom out the chart view
> > > sufficiently, all the small cycles start to look rather like
white
> > > noise.
> > >
> > >
> > > Maybe I misunderstand the academics(!) but if its the smoothing
> > > process that creates cycles where none existed before then why
can
> > > we look at an un-smoothed price chart and *see* tradeable
cycles?
> > > Why do chart patterns occur so frequently? Are these purely
random
> > > in nature, even on the week/month time scale? Surely it
depends on
> > > what time-scale/magnification level you're looking at.i.e.
what
> you
> > > actually define as a "trade cycle"? In other words, sure there
> must
> > > be an element of noise at the very high frequency end of the
> > > spectrum (which even itself looks like cyclical behaviour).
But as
> > > you go up orders of magnitude that effect must decrease
> dramatically
> > > and more predicatable influences take over. These would mainly
> > > result, I would think, from the crowd-mentality of
speculators.but
> I
> > > don't want to get into an Elliot argument here (although I'm
sure
> I
> > > can see 3 and 5-wave patterns in Jose's indicator)!!
> > > Then, eventually, the "fundamentals" start to have a distinct
> > > influence. At some point on this scale, as noise gives way to
> crowd
> > > behaviour and then to fundamentals, you get a point where
efforts
> at
> > > modelling/predicting what's going on start to bear fruit?
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