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Maurice, the Synthetic cycle generator's plot is not meant to be
smooth, but rather an artificial representation of price and its
possible (very) basic components.
For best/easiest results, plot the indicator in a separate window
using the default settings.
jose '-)
http://www.metastocktools.com
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Maurice Odekerken" <maurice.
odekerken@xxxx> wrote:
> Could you shoot a picture in paint (Alt-Print Screen) en some
> parameters to go with that, please?
> My line, is not smooth at all..................
>
>
> -----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
> Van: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:
equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Namens Jose Silva
> Verzonden: vrijdag 9 september 2005 16:18
> Aan: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Onderwerp: Re: [EquisMetaStock Group] Synthetic cycle generator
>
> > * a straight-line sloping component in there to simplify
> > the long-term fundamental influence.
>
> The long-term fundamental influence - I guess that would be sine
wave
> 1.
>
>
> > I'm stuck with that - can't do it without screwing up the nice
> > smooth sinewave shape.
>
> I can't think of a solution either, that would not destroy the
> integrity of the sine waves. Randomizing/increasing the frequency/
> amplitude of the sine waves would unfortunately also destroy the
whole
> point of this exercise.
>
>
> As for the point of this exercise, one could view and compare the
> different sine wave components of the synthetic plot, to the
different
> groups of investors, traders, day-traders that affect a normal price
> pattern.
>
> The large investors with the deep pockets would be the commercials
> and/or large funds, accumulating/selling stock or contracts over a
> longer period of time. This would equate to the large sine wave
> component in the synthetic pattern generator.
>
> The smaller/quicker traders would account for the smaller/quicker
> influences, and so on, right down to the small random market noise -
> which just happens to be generated by my own trading. :)
>
>
> No doubt the markets are a lot more complex than this artificial
> facsimile, but it can be one of those tools that can help in one's
> understanding of the machinations in the markets.
>
>
> jose '-)
> http://www.metastocktools.com
>
>
>
>
> --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Andy" <AndyDavidson@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Getting there Jose. I didn't mean for you to actually take up the
> > gauntlet when I suggested the extra factors, but I should have
known
> > better! Glad you did though as it's starting to look quite "real"
> > eh? Head-and-shoulders, ascending/descending wedges, pennants,
> > 3-wavers/5-wavers.they're all there!
> >
> >
> > Just needs two more things (if you're up for the challenge still
!!
> ):
> >
> > * a straight-line sloping component in there to simplify the long-
> > term fundamental influence.e.g. cum(1)/lastvalue(cum(1))*strength
> > factor ??
> > * Hurst said the cyclic component duration *and magnitude*
> > fluctuate slowly with time (both are related in that deviation to
> > longer duration/period corresponds to a deviation towards larger
> > magnitude). I'm stuck with that - can't do it without screwing up
> > the nice smooth sinewave shape. I'm not asking you to do it either
> > because it's probably a bridge too far just to make an academic
> > point.but if you have any ideas spring straight to mind it'd be
> > nice.
> >
> >
> > Cheers,
> >
> > Andy
> >
> >
> > _____
> >
> > From: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:
> equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > On Behalf Of Jose Silva
> > Sent: Friday, September 09, 2005 5:49 AM
> > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Synthetic cycle generator
> >
> >
> >
> > Ok, try this pattern generator version:
> >
> > =========================
> > Synthetic cycle generator
> > =========================
> > ---8<--------------------------
> >
> > { 5-wave synthetic cycle generator v2.0 }
> > { Refresh chart for new simulations }
> >
> > { Download Random.dll from
> > http://www.traderhelp.net and place in
> > MetaStock External Function DLLs folder }
> >
> > { Basic idea from Andy Davidson at:
> > http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/equismetastock , and:
> > http://www.stockmarketcycles.com/technica.htm }
> >
> > { CCopyright 2005 Jose Silva
> > For personal use only.
> > http://www.metastocktools.com }
> >
> > { User inputs }
> > plot:=Input("Sine-wave cycles: [1]Composite, [2]Individual",1,2,
1
> );
> > Sval1:=Input("Sine 1 value",-720,720,1);
> > Sval2:=Input("Sine 2 value",-720,720,3.5);
> > Sval3:=Input("Sine 3 value",-720,720,12);
> > Sval4:=Input("Sine 4 value",-720,720,42);
> > Sval5:=Input("Sine 5 value",-720,720,150);
> >
> > { Random generator engine }
> > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> >
> > { Sine components }
> > sine1:=Sin(Cum(Sval1*x));
> > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > sine2:=Sin(Cum(Sval2*x))*.5;
> > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > sine3:=Sin(Cum(Sval3*x))*.25;
> > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > sine4:=Sin(Cum(Sval4*x))*.125;
> > x:=ExtFml("Random.Number",-1)/66.66667+.5;
> > sine5:=Sin(Cum(Sval5*x))*.0625;
> >
> > { Composite Sine }
> > composite:=sine1+sine2+sine3+sine4+sine5;
> >
> > { Plot in own window }
> > If(plot=1,composite,sine1);
> > If(plot=1,composite,sine2);
> > If(plot=1,composite,sine3);
> > If(plot=1,composite,sine4);
> > If(plot=1,composite,sine5)
> >
> > ---8<--------------------------
> >
> >
> > jose '-)
> > http://www.metastocktools.com
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Andy" <AndyDavidson@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > Nice one Jose! I was thinking about trying to do something like
that
> > myself, but I'm sure that what took you 10 minutes would have
taken
> > me the best part of a day.Thanks for saving me the time!!
> >
> >
> > Now, if you imagine two additional factors:
> >
> > 1) An underlying trend represented by a straight upward/
> > downward sloping line, or even a much longer-period cycle, that
> > represents the "fundamental" influence on a market.
> >
> > 2) That the periodicity of all the cycles is not constant but
> > has some minor variation about their nominal value.
> >
> > And you can see how, when lots of "simple" stuff is added together
> > it can easily look very complicated and random! This is the
general
> > gist of what Hurst was on about.
> >
> >
> > MG, what's interesting to me is that if you plot Jose's indicator
> > and look at the individual cycles, then zoom out the chart view
> > sufficiently, all the small cycles start to look rather like white
> > noise.
> >
> >
> > Maybe I misunderstand the academics(!) but if its the smoothing
> > process that creates cycles where none existed before then why can
> > we look at an un-smoothed price chart and *see* tradeable cycles?
> > Why do chart patterns occur so frequently? Are these purely random
> > in nature, even on the week/month time scale? Surely it depends on
> > what time-scale/magnification level you're looking at.i.e. what
you
> > actually define as a "trade cycle"? In other words, sure there
must
> > be an element of noise at the very high frequency end of the
> > spectrum (which even itself looks like cyclical behaviour). But as
> > you go up orders of magnitude that effect must decrease
dramatically
> > and more predicatable influences take over. These would mainly
> > result, I would think, from the crowd-mentality of speculators.but
I
> > don't want to get into an Elliot argument here (although I'm sure
I
> > can see 3 and 5-wave patterns in Jose's indicator)!!
> > Then, eventually, the "fundamentals" start to have a distinct
> > influence. At some point on this scale, as noise gives way to
crowd
> > behaviour and then to fundamentals, you get a point where efforts
at
> > modelling/predicting what's going on start to bear fruit?
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