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Re: [Metastockusers] What to Look for in a System Test



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Thanks again AA,
I will continue to use MS explorer to find potential trades. I will then review the charts, select what looks like a good trade and then paper trade it up to the exit point.
What do you feel is the best way to do a bar by bar walk forward test?
These dialogs continue to add to mine, and hopefully others, trading knowledge. 
Scott
----- Original Message -----
From: AA
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 6:56 PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What to Look for in a System Test

Scott,
 
the guys in the forum are trying to help you,but you'll find out sooner or later that things are very different in the real world than they are in your simulation programs or the tester.
Do you want my advice? don't use the system tester! it is far away from reality.For 2 main reasons:
a. The tester assumes that you took all the trades.That's impossible.Either because you weren't available the day the signal was triggered,or because you had already put all your money in another trade.
b.The tester also assumed that you've followed the same trade management in every trade.That's unrealistic.Each trade is treated differently.Examining the results in hindsight won't be helpful for you when you'll put your money on the table.
 
It's better to test your strategy bar by bar,without seeing the next days.Even better,you can paper trade in real time,testing also your ability to react quickly.You will perform much fewer tests in this way,but they'll have real value for you.I know it's a time consuming process,but it will benefit you a lot.And remember,your trade management strategy is much more important than your entry method.When you enter a trade,your money is at risk.Work to reduce your risk as soon as possible.This is the only survival method that works.Don't be fooled by the carefully selected examples the system vendors will present you.IF you do what the 99% does,you will never have the chance to approach the 1% that consistently makes money in the markets.It takes time,effort,money and huge emotional resources.Remember,the road to success cannot be purchased.It must be gained by YOU!!!
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, March 14, 2005 1:13 AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What to Look for in a System Test

Martin,
The different trades are all over the map. From 7 trades with a w/l of 4/5 for a gain of 39% to  8 trades with a w/l of 1/7 for a loss of 91%.
I am using 8.0 and do not have an overall summary for all stocks in my list.
Scott
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 4:01 PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What to Look for in a System Test

Scott
Does the entry and exit percentage gain or loss of one particular trade match the page with the graph on it?
Click to Highlight and "view"
Examine the entry and exit price
The formula to calculate a gain is - entry minus exit.  Divide this number by lowest number.e.g.. 8-10=-2/8= .25 or 25%
Now compare this to what MS system tester says on summary page. I assume you are using 9.  
Martin Blain
Burlington Ontario
 



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