Re: [Metastockusers] What to Look for in a System Test

["Scott Mariani" <mariani@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Martin,

How do I remove the zero trades without deleting the negative trades? The cleanup utility removes both and I am only left with the winners. I found that entering a percentage for Money Market was really throwing off my overall returns for a given set of equities. I have just been sorting the results by the Net Profit column. I then look at the graph at the top of the results window. If the negative bars out number the positive ones I assume I do not have a good system. I know the magnitude of the losses are incorrect but the actual losses I assume is accurate.

 

I look at the trades that did well. For most of my trials I will usually only get 1 or 2 trades in a 250 bar test. I don't think I can just remove the losers and then explore for signals on the equities that did well. Just because they hit on the last 250 bars is not an indication of future performance. This is why I feel I need to have a positive win ratio over all securities in my portfolio in order to have confidence in my system. When I look at different charts with the indicators superimposed I have confidence I can trade them successfully. But when I run the system test my confidence goes to 0. With so few trades a year I would need a good set of stocks to pick from.

Thanks, Scott

----- Original Message -----

From: Martin Blain

To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 9:36 AM

Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What to Look for in a System Test

Scott

Look at each trade one at a time. The results shown are not accurate. You must calculate the percentage of gain or loss yourself. Start by deleting all symbols with zero trades.

Martin Blain
Burlington Ontario

----- Original Message -----

From: Scott Mariani

To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Saturday, March 12, 2005 8:47 PM

Subject: [Metastockusers] What to Look for in a System Test

O.k.

I have been building system test after system test, trying several different combinations of indicators. Since I use EOD data I have given up on getting accurate exit values. I get a bunch of high losses which I attribute to the EOD data not exiting until the close.

 

I assume the object of a system test is to have more winning trades than loosing ones? I have resorted to adding one optimization so I can look at the overall system performance on a total $$ basis. The only problem with this is that with the exits being what they are, my losses are humongous. I have been trying to find a system that is better than 50/50 but have yet to stumble on anything that yields more winners than losers.

 

How do others go about analyzing system tester results?

Thanks, Scott

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