|
Scott
Does the entry and exit percentage gain or loss of
one particular trade match the page with the graph on it?
Click to Highlight and "view"
Examine the entry and exit price
The formula to calculate a gain is - entry
minus exit. Divide this number by lowest number.e.g.. 8-10=-2/8= .25 or
25%
Now compare this to what MS system tester says on
summary page. I assume you are using 9.
Martin Blain
Burlington Ontario
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 2:15
PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What to
Look for in a System Test
Martin,
Oh, that sounds too easy. :-) I do open some of
the charts to evaluate, and verify, the entry and exit signals. Again, because
I have so few trades over the period tested there is not much to look at. How
do you apply a formula to the results in order to determine gain or loss. When
I delete the zeros as you suggested the chart is pretty ugly (sorry I had to
look!).
Thanks, Scott
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 12:45
PM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What to
Look for in a System Test
Scott
Simply highlight the zero trades and hit the
delete key delete. You must open each trade and look at the buy and sell
amount. Don't look at the page with the graph on it. If you need the
formula to figure out percentage gain or loss let me
know.
Martin Blain
Burlington Ontario
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 10:07
AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What to
Look for in a System Test
Martin,
How do I remove the zero trades without
deleting the negative trades? The cleanup utility removes both and I am
only left with the winners. I found that entering a percentage for Money
Market was really throwing off my overall returns for a given set of
equities. I have just been sorting the results by the Net Profit column. I
then look at the graph at the top of the results window. If the negative
bars out number the positive ones I assume I do not have a good system. I
know the magnitude of the losses are incorrect but the actual losses I
assume is accurate.
I look at the trades that did well. For most
of my trials I will usually only get 1 or 2 trades in a 250 bar test. I
don't think I can just remove the losers and then explore for signals on
the equities that did well. Just because they hit on the last 250 bars is
not an indication of future performance. This is why I feel I need to have
a positive win ratio over all securities in my portfolio in order to have
confidence in my system. When I look at different charts with the
indicators superimposed I have confidence I can trade them successfully.
But when I run the system test my confidence goes to 0. With so few trades
a year I would need a good set of stocks to pick from.
Thanks, Scott
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 9:36
AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] What
to Look for in a System Test
Scott
Look at each trade one at a time. The
results shown are not accurate. You must calculate the percentage of
gain or loss yourself. Start by deleting all symbols with zero trades.
Martin Blain
Burlington Ontario
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, March 12, 2005
8:47 PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] What to
Look for in a System Test
O.k.
I have been building system test after
system test, trying several different combinations of indicators.
Since I use EOD data I have given up on getting accurate exit values.
I get a bunch of high losses which I
attribute to the EOD data not exiting until the close.
I assume the object of a system test
is to have more winning trades than loosing ones? I have resorted to
adding one optimization so I can look at the overall system
performance on a total $$ basis. The only problem with this is that
with the exits being what they are, my losses are humongous. I have
been trying to find a system that is better than 50/50 but have yet to
stumble on anything that yields more winners than losers.
How do others go about analyzing system
tester results?
Thanks,
Scott
| Yahoo! Groups Sponsor |
ADVERTISEMENT
![click here]() | |
![]() |
Yahoo! Groups Links
|