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Larry, good that you have chosen an approach that works for you.
The only true indicator that always works is Price!
But how can we judge your system when you only have data back a year or so?
How do we know you didn't curve fit? Can you show data on the NDX, SPX, and
RUT back at least 5 years and preferably 10?
Tom
----- Original Message -----
From: "smithld" <book@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 4:47 PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: Introducing myself
>
>
> I agree that T/A would work better than a lot of emotions.
> Especially if they are the emotions of the trader.
>
> The Stock market moves, though, from the emotions of the majority of
> the investors. Think of it this way, if nothing fundamental has
> changed with a stock or an index, why does the price move up and down
> over a short period of time. If a major news item comes out, such as
> a terror strike, or good news about the economy, why does the market
> move almost immediately (down for the terror and up for the economy)?
>
> Emotions, or better yet the level of fear that investors feel, moves
> the market. That level will only change with external input, such as
> world events.
>
> As for my personal holy grail, I personally find it very stressful
> trading, as do many many others. That is exactly why I created a
> completely automated system that trys to take into account the
> majority of investors emotions rather than mine.
>
> I am not into individual stocks, only mutual funds or index stocks.
> Also, I don't hold for more than a few days. Some people do very
> well the way you suggested but, it isn't the direction I have chosen
> for my system. I would be like a duck out of water doing that.
>
> Larry
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Martin Blain" <martin@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > I think TA alone would work better then a lot of emotions. Perhaps
> the writer just hasn't found his own personal holy grail.
> > Maybe its time for a little friendly competition. This could be
> easily done by having a common user and password to a yahoo account.
> We could then have individual portfolios with 10 stocks chosen over
> the period of 1 -2 weeks and held for 60days
> > Martin Blain
> > Burlington Ontario
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: rdb104
> > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 4:08 PM
> > Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Re: Introducing myself
> >
> >
> > I can't say never but I think we generally agree.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: smithld
> > To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 3:47 PM
> > Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: Introducing myself
> >
> >
> >
> > I agree, I wouldn't trade without TA either, but T/A alone will
> never
> > work!
> >
> > Larry
> >
> > --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rdb104"
> <richandellen@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > MessageI never thought a purely mechanical system could
> work..but
> > wouldn't trade without TA.
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Book
> > >
> >
> To: 'onlinetradersclub ' ; 'equismetastock ' ; 'internetstocknews ' ;
> > 'Metastockusers ' ; 'momostocks ' ; 'mutualfunds ' ; 'myqqqsyste
> m '
> > > Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 3:00 PM
> > > Subject: [Metastockusers] Introducing myself
> > >
> > >
> > > I would like to introduce myself to this group.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I am a retired manager of a major U.S. corporation. I was
> > educated in the fields of mathematics, electrical engineering
> and
> > computer science and I have had an interest in stock market
> analysis
> > for nearly 20 years.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I believe my background skills have given me a unique
> insight
> > into technical analysis, allowing me to look at and understand
> the
> > mathematics behind technical analysis formulas, take an
> unbiased
> > common sense approach to the results of these formulas and
> develop a
> > system that does not succumb to the short falls of Technical
> > Analysis.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I have been studying technical analysis in the stock market
> since
> > 1987, testing and analyzing hundreds of formulas and charts. I
> began
> > by using commercial software with built in formulas, then wrote
> my
> > own formulas and finally wrote my own software and formulas.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I am now writing a book "An Analysis of Technical
> Analysis",
> > which is far from complete but there is some very relevant
> > information that I will point you to a little later.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I have also been lurking and contributing on many forums
> over the
> > last 10 years or so, and I have made several observations.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > 1.. The questions are generally the same, form year to
> year.
> > Some technical question on how to get a formula or program to
> work
> > and some general questions on how to make a system that really
> > works. The technical questions are usually answered in detail
> but
> > the system questions are rarely answered except in the most
> general
> > terms.
> > > 2.. There are usually one or two Gurus who expound "I
> have
> > developed a system that really works well" but they never give
> > explicit details on how this system works and they never give
> actual
> > trades until well after the trades have happened. This gives
> way too
> > much opportunity to "adjust" the figures. In other words, they
> never
> > prove themselves.
> > > 3.. After a period of time, a year or less, these Gurus
> > disappear from the scene. Did they lose all their money, or
> can't
> > they just keep up the BS?
> > >
> > >
> > > Why is this the case? I will answer this a little later.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > First I want to say that I have created a "commercial"
> market
> > timing website, but I will not advertise or even mention the
> name
> > here so that the moderator of this group won't ban me. My main
> > concern is to get some very pertinent market timing information
> to
> > those of you who are really interested in trying to time the
> market.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Let me start out this way. Technical analysis (using
> > mathematical formulas only) DOES NOT WORK, WILL NOT WORK, AND
> YOU
> > WILL JUST LOSE YOUR MONEY!
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > How can I possibly say such a thing, especially when I said
> I own
> > a market timing web site?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I said "Technical analysis (using mathematical formulas
> only)".
> > Mathematical formulas, no mater how simple or complex, try to
> match a
> > recurrence, or pattern, in the market. They simply do not
> predict
> > anything!
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Experts contend that the market is "random"
> and "efficient". We
> > all know that random events cannot be predicted and if
> something is
> > really efficient there are no disparities to capitalize on.
> These
> > two factors alone tell you that the market is impossible, or
> nearly
> > impossible to predict, using mathematical formulas.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > If you would like to learn a little more about technical
> > analysis, what works and what doesn't, and what you REALLY need
> to
> > look for you can read more of my upcoming book. The start is
> > here "An Analysis of Technical Analysis" or you can get the
> quick and
> > dirty "summary" here.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > It won't cost you a cent, but it might save you several!
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Thanks for reading.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Larry
> > >
> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> > > ADVERTISEMENT
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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