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I agree that T/A would work better than a lot of emotions.
Especially if they are the emotions of the trader.
The Stock market moves, though, from the emotions of the majority of
the investors. Think of it this way, if nothing fundamental has
changed with a stock or an index, why does the price move up and down
over a short period of time. If a major news item comes out, such as
a terror strike, or good news about the economy, why does the market
move almost immediately (down for the terror and up for the economy)?
Emotions, or better yet the level of fear that investors feel, moves
the market. That level will only change with external input, such as
world events.
As for my personal holy grail, I personally find it very stressful
trading, as do many many others. That is exactly why I created a
completely automated system that trys to take into account the
majority of investors emotions rather than mine.
I am not into individual stocks, only mutual funds or index stocks.
Also, I don't hold for more than a few days. Some people do very
well the way you suggested but, it isn't the direction I have chosen
for my system. I would be like a duck out of water doing that.
Larry
--- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Martin Blain" <martin@xxxx>
wrote:
> I think TA alone would work better then a lot of emotions. Perhaps
the writer just hasn't found his own personal holy grail.
> Maybe its time for a little friendly competition. This could be
easily done by having a common user and password to a yahoo account.
We could then have individual portfolios with 10 stocks chosen over
the period of 1 -2 weeks and held for 60days
> Martin Blain
> Burlington Ontario
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: rdb104
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 4:08 PM
> Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Re: Introducing myself
>
>
> I can't say never but I think we generally agree.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: smithld
> To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 3:47 PM
> Subject: [Metastockusers] Re: Introducing myself
>
>
>
> I agree, I wouldn't trade without TA either, but T/A alone will
never
> work!
>
> Larry
>
> --- In Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rdb104"
<richandellen@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > MessageI never thought a purely mechanical system could
work..but
> wouldn't trade without TA.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Book
> >
>
To: 'onlinetradersclub ' ; 'equismetastock ' ; 'internetstocknews ' ;
> 'Metastockusers ' ; 'momostocks ' ; 'mutualfunds ' ; 'myqqqsyste
m '
> > Sent: Friday, October 08, 2004 3:00 PM
> > Subject: [Metastockusers] Introducing myself
> >
> >
> > I would like to introduce myself to this group.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am a retired manager of a major U.S. corporation. I was
> educated in the fields of mathematics, electrical engineering
and
> computer science and I have had an interest in stock market
analysis
> for nearly 20 years.
> >
> >
> >
> > I believe my background skills have given me a unique
insight
> into technical analysis, allowing me to look at and understand
the
> mathematics behind technical analysis formulas, take an
unbiased
> common sense approach to the results of these formulas and
develop a
> system that does not succumb to the short falls of Technical
> Analysis.
> >
> >
> >
> > I have been studying technical analysis in the stock market
since
> 1987, testing and analyzing hundreds of formulas and charts. I
began
> by using commercial software with built in formulas, then wrote
my
> own formulas and finally wrote my own software and formulas.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am now writing a book "An Analysis of Technical
Analysis",
> which is far from complete but there is some very relevant
> information that I will point you to a little later.
> >
> >
> >
> > I have also been lurking and contributing on many forums
over the
> last 10 years or so, and I have made several observations.
> >
> >
> >
> > 1.. The questions are generally the same, form year to
year.
> Some technical question on how to get a formula or program to
work
> and some general questions on how to make a system that really
> works. The technical questions are usually answered in detail
but
> the system questions are rarely answered except in the most
general
> terms.
> > 2.. There are usually one or two Gurus who expound "I
have
> developed a system that really works well" but they never give
> explicit details on how this system works and they never give
actual
> trades until well after the trades have happened. This gives
way too
> much opportunity to "adjust" the figures. In other words, they
never
> prove themselves.
> > 3.. After a period of time, a year or less, these Gurus
> disappear from the scene. Did they lose all their money, or
can't
> they just keep up the BS?
> >
> >
> > Why is this the case? I will answer this a little later.
> >
> >
> >
> > First I want to say that I have created a "commercial"
market
> timing website, but I will not advertise or even mention the
name
> here so that the moderator of this group won't ban me. My main
> concern is to get some very pertinent market timing information
to
> those of you who are really interested in trying to time the
market.
> >
> >
> >
> > Let me start out this way. Technical analysis (using
> mathematical formulas only) DOES NOT WORK, WILL NOT WORK, AND
YOU
> WILL JUST LOSE YOUR MONEY!
> >
> >
> >
> > How can I possibly say such a thing, especially when I said
I own
> a market timing web site?
> >
> >
> >
> > I said "Technical analysis (using mathematical formulas
only)".
> Mathematical formulas, no mater how simple or complex, try to
match a
> recurrence, or pattern, in the market. They simply do not
predict
> anything!
> >
> >
> >
> > Experts contend that the market is "random"
and "efficient". We
> all know that random events cannot be predicted and if
something is
> really efficient there are no disparities to capitalize on.
These
> two factors alone tell you that the market is impossible, or
nearly
> impossible to predict, using mathematical formulas.
> >
> >
> >
> > If you would like to learn a little more about technical
> analysis, what works and what doesn't, and what you REALLY need
to
> look for you can read more of my upcoming book. The start is
> here "An Analysis of Technical Analysis" or you can get the
quick and
> dirty "summary" here.
> >
> >
> >
> > It won't cost you a cent, but it might save you several!
> >
> >
> >
> > Thanks for reading.
> >
> >
> >
> > Larry
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
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> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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>
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