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Dusant,
So you find out there's been a frost in Brazil, and you're holding a
bunch of coffee contracts. Do you really think this information will
be useful in any way with your trading?
The moment there is the slightest sign of a frost on the ground in
Brazil, locals and traders with this timely information will act on
it, leaving the rest of us wondering what happened. Slippage at work.
News is not so much about forecasting, but more about "aftercasting".
jose '-)
--- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dusant" <dusant@xxxx> wrote:
> Jose,
>
> I have never been an advocate of neural networks, for the stock
markets.
>
> But I do think, there would be a correlation, between frost in
Brazil, and prices of Robusta Coffee.
>
> Dusant
> Chief Architect
> http://www.candlestrength.com/
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
> To: <equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, May 07, 2004 5:21 AM
> Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Metstock "cheats'? showing part
of next day data?
>
>
> >
> > Dusant,
> >
> > Give a Neural Net weather and market data, and it will find strong
> > correlations and a winning method for the past only - the ultimate
> > curve-fit.
> >
> > There are many dynamic/complex positive/negative correlations in
the
> > markets. It takes understanding of the fundamental market
underlying
> > forces before these tools can begin to be useful.
> >
> > The old adage has never been truer:
> > "Garbage in, garbage out"
> >
> > jose '-)
> >
> >
> > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dusant" <dusant@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > Jose,
> > >
> > > There are quite a few methods, using software to forecast.
Neural
> > Networks is one such example which come to mind straightaway.
> > >
> > > They are good for forecasting where the cause and effect can be
> > directly correlated like weather patterns.
> > >
> > > So, if an enterprising person can do this kind of modelling,
> > > a.. a neural network with weather patterns and
> > > b.. agricultural commodity prices as inputs
> > > it could be a sell-out.
> > >
> > > MVHO
> > >
> > > Dusant
> > > Chief Architect
> > > http://www.candlestrength.com/
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Jose" <josesilva22@xxxx>
> > > To: <equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2004 5:33 AM
> > > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Metstock "cheats'? showing
part
> > of next day data?
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Lionel, with all due respect, you will not find any successful
> > > > forecasting methods available for the markets, in any large
public
> > > > library, academic library, or amazon.com
> > > >
> > > > In the ever-shifting sands of the markets, forecasting is a
very
> > > > complex, dynamic subject. For example, what may have been
> > relatively
> > > > accurate three years ago, may not work so well now.
> > > >
> > > > And as for academic papers... well, let's just say that the
real
> > > > trading world and the view from the academic ivory towers are
very
> > > > different indeed.
> > > >
> > > > jose '-)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Lionel Issen"
<lissen@xxxx
> > >
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > Jose:
> > > > >
> > > > > Forecasting is a discipline that is taught in many
management
> > > > courses. It is
> > > > > used in industry, insurance companies, and the military.
> > > > >
> > > > > If you want more information just look up forecasting in a
> > larger
> > > > public
> > > > > library, an academic library, or amazon.com
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Lionel
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > _____
> > > > >
> > > > > From: Rick Carbert [mailto:rcarbert@x...]
> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 2004 5:31 PM
> > > > > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: RE: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Metstock "cheats'?
> > showing
> > > > part of
> > > > > next day data?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > My reference is to using historical data. The year I
> > mentioned
> > > > here is
> > > > > 2003.
> > > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: Jose [mailto:josesilva22@x...]
> > > > > Sent: May 3, 2004 11:06 PM
> > > > > To: equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Subject: [EquisMetaStock Group] Re: Metstock "cheats'?
showing
> > part
> > > > of next
> > > > > day data?
> > > > >
> > > > > Rick,
> > > > >
> > > > > Please send me some of that medication you are on - I would
like
> > to
> > > > > know what is happening the next day too! ;)
> > > > >
> > > > > jose '-)
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In equismetastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "rickbc11"
<rcarbert@xxxx
> > >
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > Hi: I am practising as per Elder's book "Come into My
> > Trading
> > > > > > Room" and using historical EOD data. However, I find
that
> > when
> > > > > > looking at my charts, Metastock shows me what is happening
the
> > > > next
> > > > > > day by starting to draw the next days oscillator line
either
> > up or
> > > > > > down.
> > > > > > For example, on my EOD for May 3, 2003 using the
> > Stochastic
> > > > > > osc., I can see that the next day will probably be up
somewhat
> > > > > > because the Stochastic indicator has alread started to
angle
> > that
> > > > > > way. (Put your crosshair over May 3rd and you will see
what
> > I
> > > > > > mean).
> > > > > > How can I set Metastock so that this doesn't
happen?
> > > > > > Thanks-Rick
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