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Naz Daily
http://tinyurl.com/eagh
Naz Weekly
http://tinyurl.com/eagi
Naz 3 Channels
http://tinyurl.com/eagk
Some Wyckoff pv analysis of the Naz. (The links should work but you
may have to join Yahoo Briefcase to view them, it's free.)
>From the start of the uptrend channel Mar, Apr, and mid-May up vol is
generally greater than down and there are many strong up days on long
spreads closing on the highs w/nice price progress, while down days
on the reactions tend to be on lower vol, narrower spreads, and/or
shallow price retracement.
Then 5/27 a wide spread closing on the high on strong vol that closes
just above the 5/15 high, which itself was the all-important break
above the 12/02 high. This is very positive of course, but look at
the following 3 days, all up, but on very narrow spreads and
increasingly high vol. 5/27 gains about 50 points in one day, yet
those next 3 bars are hardly able to gain that much in total, despite
the massive vol. This represents great effort (vol) with little
result (price gain) and was perhaps a warning of an exhaustion move.
On 6/6 of course is a classic looking reversal bar, but then we've
had those before. But certainly the massive vol and wide spread
closing on the low seems to confirm that earlier weakness.
After the previous high on volatility (at a possible Buying Climax)
we may be cycling to a more quiet period. Volume has dropped off
considerably and price appears to be consolidating. Note this week
price unable to make a new high or even hold above the 6/05 close
once again.
Looking at the weekly, the week of 6/06 is a breakout of the
downtrend channel on massive volume, but closing in the lower half of
the range. (This is now the 3rd progressively milder downtrending
channel that has been broken on the Naz since the start of the Bear
market. See chart.) This week's bar an almost perfect doji,
reflecting the low-volatility, consolidation period. Also note the
longer-term horizontal s/r we're approaching at 1720ish.
Candlesticks are especially helpful on the weekly charts. Note the
how many times narrow bodies, even with long shadows, are soon
followed by strongly trending bars with wide bodies. We now have 2
very tight bodies in a row on the weekly as price consolidates.
Harold
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