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Re: [Metastockusers] EXPLORER



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I found your message with very valid points and I hope   
it will be taken to heart by all who read it.

Debra Ann
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--- Begin Message ---
To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] EXPLORER
From: richandellen <richandellen@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 14 Apr 2003 19:08:42 -0400
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You have provided a much more detailed response 
than I have to uhehs and I must say I agree 100% right down to 
support/resistance.
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  nikku 
  To: <A 
  title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Monday, April 14, 2003 5:26 
PM
  Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] 
  EXPLORER
  
  hello uhehs
   
  I rarely respond to posts like yours but I felt I 
  had to tell you - IMHO, you should take a few weeks and rethink your trading 
  plan. A 70/30 win ratio is so improbable that it is a bad idea to base your 
  plans around it. If you are just starting out, you should be very happy if you 
  are breaking even after 6 months of active trading. I am not saying that 70/30 
  is impossible, it is just very very unlikely. Also, it seems as if you are 
  counting your profits before placing your first trade. Do you have a clear 
  understanding of how many people like you and me blow out of the markets 
  within the first 6 months? The ration is very high - maybe 85/15 or higher. 
  You should ask yourself the following question - why do almost 9 out of 10 
  people fail and what am I doing to make sure that it doesn't happen to 
  me? The rules you use to enter trades are far less important than 
  your ability to stick to a good risk management plan. You seem to be choosing 
  a plan which involves risking no more than 2.5% of your total equity per trade 
  (you mentioned a $500 stop loss and it seems you are entering the markets with 
  a $20,000 stake). This is a little high in my opinion but not too bad. The 
  first thing you need to do is place a few trades and see how it feels when you 
  lose - do you stick to your planned risk stops? Do you go chasing your losses 
  in the next trade and lose again? Or are you very disciplined and are your 
  entries working out? Keep a diary of all trades and write down everything - 
  why you entered, how you felt when the position went for or against you, when 
  you exited and why. Print out all charts pre, intra, and post trade. Keep them 
  and look back at them often. 
   
  You seem to believe that as long as you have a 
  winning 'system', you will be a winning trader. Nothing could be farther from 
  the truth. The simple system you are describing is neither winning or 
  losing - there are 100 different ways to generate entry signals that are just 
  the same as the system you have described in your first post. Thousands of 
  people have developed and tried dead simple systems such as this. I have 
  several indicators that I have developed over the years that 
  would probably seem to you to be the Holy Grail, because they just seem to 
  trigger off at the exact moment they should.  They are not. The best 
  'black box' systems are ones that you and I will never ever see; they are not 
  sold - they have been constructed by dedicated mathematicians who spent years 
  working on them and are used by those who constructed them or by those who 
  hired the people who constructed them. I am not saying you can't create 
  your own - after all, I don't know anything about you!! Perhaps you have what 
  it takes to spend the thousands of hours necessary to familiarize yourself 
  with the basics of indicator work and then go on to apply what you know in a 
  creative manner in order to develop a system that can be the BASIS for 
  profitable trading. If you did, however, I don't think you would be posting 
  here. But... THIS SIMPLE SYSTEM MIGHT WORK JUST FINE!! It all depends on your 
  discipline. 
   
  The fact is, judging by your posts, the best 
  chance you have is to become good at the non-system aspects of trading - the 
  psychological aspects - and to make sure that you don't make the same mistakes 
  that have been made by thousands of people just like you who went into the 
  markets thinking - 'Hey!! This software seems to show winning trades!! I could 
  make money doing this!!' Seek out people who have won and then seek out people 
  who have lost and get them to tell you why they had the experience they did. 
  Write out your rules and then see if you can follow them. 
   
  There will be some on this thread who disagree 
  with my comments - they will say that there is nothing to be scared of and you 
  have to go for it and see what happens. Others will say that I am too 
  pessimistic. Still others will say that they have made it just fine without 
  paying attention to any of the things I have mentioned here. The fact that you 
  were already calculating how much money you will make is what made me write 
  this - that is just a very bad idea. Forget about how much money you are going 
  to make - it is overwhelmingly likely that you will lose what you have - this 
  is not a matter of opinion, it is a matter of statistics. You should be 100% 
  focused on how much money you can lose. 
   
  The last thing I will say is this - if you feel 
  that I am trying to discourage you, please understand - nothing could be 
  farther from the truth. I WANT you to do well, and I DON"T WANT you to make 
  the same mistakes that have been made by the vast majority of those who have 
  come before you - this is the only way you can make it. For people like you 
  and I, the most important thing is to have a good game plan and to stick to 
  it. 
   
  BTW... the most important weapon in my arsenal 
  is... SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE. My S & R lines serve me better than any one 
  of the hundreds of custom indicators I have at my disposal. Good Luck - I mean 
  it. To 
  unsubscribe from this group, send an email 
  to:Metastockusers-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxYour use 
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  href="">Yahoo! Terms of Service. 








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