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Nick
First I was only trying to make a point and that is
if you expect to make any money trading you will have to ride the waves up and
down. I really do feel that you must do what makes you feel comfortable as a
trader. You must do things that work to a degree that makes you happy
and gives you the rewards you want out of this exercise. It is very important to
get a feel for going short even if you don't because there is people out there
that make it there business. I will concede that the short sellers are not out
in full force right now.
I have never heard the term scripts but if you mean
the stock must be owned by somebody in a long position before you can go short
than I would counter that point with the fact you can short some stocks without
an uptick such as the QQQ.
Regards Martin
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Nick Leong
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 17, 2003 2:32 AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full time
private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Martin,
I am adverse to shorting equities because it involves selling something you
do not have. Eventually you would have to close your position and believe me,
it can tremendously stressful. Also most of the time when the market is going
down, there are no scripts to "borrow" for the purpose of shorting. If you can
borrow scripts, it means that the big players are preparing to charge.
Nick
Martin Blain <<A
href="">martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
Nick
As far as my back testing results it was a
pattern I saw show up repeatedly when testing long only trading
systems. I had only been testing 20 years and somehow got the idea to
try 30, to level the playing field so to speak. Both ways the most common
gain was 10% over buy and hold. You must remember that is a smoothed result,
I am not saying in any 5 year period you couldn't do
better.
I feel that by not going short or doing a paper
trade in place of a short when a sell order when it comes up than you are
doing yourself a disservice. Maybe its because going long only requires that
you be optimistic instead of realistic.
BTW what reason would you have for being
adverse to going short. I am assuming that you are watching your trades.
Lord knows that down is faster!
Regards Martin
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Nick Leong
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 16, 2003 5:47 AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full
time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi Martin,
I guess I would probably belong with that group as I am rather
adverse to "going short". While I am in no way doubting your
methodology or research integrity, I believe that no back test in this
world can substitute live trading. Unless of course you want to tell me
that you have actually traded for a large part of those 30 years and have
largely been profitable.
Nick
Martin Blain <<A
href="">martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
Nick
I am curios how often you sell short if at
all.
I find some are leery of doing this.
I done some studies with software testing over the past 30 years
and "long only" you could probably do 10% better than the
market.
Regards Martin
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Nick
Leong
To: <A
title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 15, 2003 7:29
PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Full
time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi group,
I’ve been reading some
articles about the hedge fund management industry and how most funds
sustained losses over the past 2 years especially since Sept 11 and
the US corporate scandal. This is coupled with a statistic I read that
most novice traders leave the trading arena after about 3 months.
These events really got me thinking… … is it really possible for one
to be a full time private trader?
I’ve been trading
privately for about 4 years not and like most of you I’ve had my ups
and downs. I am a firm believer that trading the market is a zero sum
game. Someone MUST lose in order for me to make a gain. However, the
law of averages dictates that it is just not possible for anyone to be
winning all the time. That being the case, is it actually possible for
anyone to be a full time private trader (i.e. trade using only his own
money and make a living out of it)?
The only possible way for
one to make money is possibly to be engaged in the right market at the
right time, e.g. to switch between the equities/futures/derivatives
markets or switch between the US/Europe/Asian markets. But we must
also remember that a private trader does not have the resources or the
mental capacity to handle so much information or research at a single
time. What option would be left then? To specialise and trade only in
specific markets and sit things out when everything is not going well?
Do not forget that a downturn in the market can last for
years.
We can go into the nitty
gritty and say that we must set up stops to prevent losses, but I’m
sure most of you have been in the situation where you were stopped out
too early or you had given so much room before being stopped out that
you suffered a painful loss. Don’t get me wrong, I believe that
trading and investing is an art and there is no one mechanical way of
getting the right results. Ultimately, we are all looking for one
thing… …PROFITS. However, I have come under the increasing impression
that the odds are severely stacked against the private
trader.
I look forward to hearing
from you guys on this matter.
Thanks.
<SPAN lang=EN-GB
>Nick
Leong
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