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Re: [Metastockusers] Full time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?



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Nick
First I was only trying to make a point and that is 
if you expect to make any money trading you will have to ride the waves up and 
down. I really do feel that you must do what makes you feel comfortable as a 
trader. You must do things that work to a degree that makes you happy 
and gives you the rewards you want out of this exercise. It is very important to 
get a feel for going short even if you don't because there is people out there 
that make it there business. I will concede that the short sellers are not out 
in full force right now.
I have never heard the term scripts but if you mean 
the stock must be owned by somebody in a long position before you can go short 
than I would counter that point with the fact you can short some stocks without 
an uptick such as the QQQ.
Regards Martin
 
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Nick Leong 
  To: <A 
  title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: January 17, 2003 2:32 AM
  Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full time 
  private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
  
  Martin, 
  I am adverse to shorting equities because it involves selling something you 
  do not have. Eventually you would have to close your position and believe me, 
  it can tremendously stressful. Also most of the time when the market is going 
  down, there are no scripts to "borrow" for the purpose of shorting. If you can 
  borrow scripts, it means that the big players are preparing to charge. 
  Nick 
   Martin Blain <<A 
  href="">martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> 
  wrote: 
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    
    Nick
    As far as my back testing results it was a 
    pattern I saw show up repeatedly when testing long only trading 
    systems. I had only been testing 20 years and somehow got the idea to 
    try 30, to level the playing field so to speak. Both ways the most common 
    gain was 10% over buy and hold. You must remember that is a smoothed result, 
    I am not saying in any 5 year period you couldn't do 
    better.  
     
    I feel that by not going short or doing a paper 
    trade in place of a short when a sell order when it comes up than you are 
    doing yourself a disservice. Maybe its because going long only requires that 
    you be optimistic instead of realistic.
     
    BTW what reason would you have for being 
    adverse to going short. I am assuming that you are watching your trades. 
    Lord knows that down is faster!
     
    Regards Martin
     
     
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      ----- Original Message ----- 
      <DIV 
      >From: 
      Nick Leong 
      
      To: <A 
      title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      Sent: January 16, 2003 5:47 AM
      Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full 
      time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
      
      Hi Martin, 
      I guess I would probably belong with that group as I am rather 
      adverse to "going short". While I am in no way doubting your 
      methodology or research integrity, I believe that no back test in this 
      world can substitute live trading. Unless of course you want to tell me 
      that you have actually traded for a large part of those 30 years and have 
      largely been profitable. 
      Nick 
       Martin Blain <<A 
      href="">martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> 
      wrote: 
      <BLOCKQUOTE 
      >
        
        

        Nick
        I am curios how often you sell short if at 
        all.
        I find some are leery of doing this.
        I done some studies with software testing over the past 30 years 
        and "long only" you could probably do 10% better than the 
        market.
        Regards Martin
         
         
        <BLOCKQUOTE 
        >
          ----- Original Message ----- 
          <DIV 
          >From: 
          Nick 
          Leong 
          To: <A 
          title=Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
          href="">Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
          
          Sent: January 15, 2003 7:29 
          PM
          Subject: [Metastockusers] Full 
          time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
          
           Hi group,
          I’ve been reading some 
          articles about the hedge fund management industry and how most funds 
          sustained losses over the past 2 years especially since Sept 11 and 
          the US corporate scandal. This is coupled with a statistic I read that 
          most novice traders leave the trading arena after about 3 months. 
          These events really got me thinking… … is it really possible for one 
          to be a full time private trader?
          I’ve been trading 
          privately for about 4 years not and like most of you I’ve had my ups 
          and downs. I am a firm believer that trading the market is a zero sum 
          game. Someone MUST lose in order for me to make a gain. However, the 
          law of averages dictates that it is just not possible for anyone to be 
          winning all the time. That being the case, is it actually possible for 
          anyone to be a full time private trader (i.e. trade using only his own 
          money and make a living out of it)?
          The only possible way for 
          one to make money is possibly to be engaged in the right market at the 
          right time, e.g. to switch between the equities/futures/derivatives 
          markets or switch between the US/Europe/Asian markets. But we must 
          also remember that a private trader does not have the resources or the 
          mental capacity to handle so much information or research at a single 
          time. What option would be left then? To specialise and trade only in 
          specific markets and sit things out when everything is not going well? 
          Do not forget that a downturn in the market can last for 
          years.
          We can go into the nitty 
          gritty and say that we must set up stops to prevent losses, but I’m 
          sure most of you have been in the situation where you were stopped out 
          too early or you had given so much room before being stopped out that 
          you suffered a painful loss. Don’t get me wrong, I believe that 
          trading and investing is an art and there is no one mechanical way of 
          getting the right results. Ultimately, we are all looking for one 
          thing… …PROFITS. However, I have come under the increasing impression 
          that the odds are severely stacked against the private 
          trader.
          I look forward to hearing 
          from you guys on this matter.
          Thanks.
          <SPAN lang=EN-GB 
          >Nick 
          Leong
          
          
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