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Martin,
I am adverse to shorting equities because it involves selling something you do not have. Eventually you would have to close your position and believe me, it can tremendously stressful. Also most of the time when the market is going down, there are no scripts to "borrow" for the purpose of shorting. If you can borrow scripts, it means that the big players are preparing to charge.
Nick
Martin Blain <martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Nick
As far as my back testing results it was a pattern I saw show up repeatedly when testing long only trading systems. I had only been testing 20 years and somehow got the idea to try 30, to level the playing field so to speak. Both ways the most common gain was 10% over buy and hold. You must remember that is a smoothed result, I am not saying in any 5 year period you couldn't do better.
I feel that by not going short or doing a paper trade in place of a short when a sell order when it comes up than you are doing yourself a disservice. Maybe its because going long only requires that you be optimistic instead of realistic.
BTW what reason would you have for being adverse to going short. I am assuming that you are watching your trades. Lord knows that down is faster!
Regards Martin
----- Original Message -----
From: Nick Leong
To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 16, 2003 5:47 AM
Subject: Re: [Metastockusers] Full time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi Martin,
I guess I would probably belong with that group as I am rather adverse to "going short". While I am in no way doubting your methodology or research integrity, I believe that no back test in this world can substitute live trading. Unless of course you want to tell me that you have actually traded for a large part of those 30 years and have largely been profitable.
Nick
Martin Blain <martin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Nick
I am curios how often you sell short if at all.
I find some are leery of doing this.
I done some studies with software testing over the past 30 years and "long only" you could probably do 10% better than the market.
Regards Martin
----- Original Message -----
From: Nick Leong
To: Metastockusers@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: January 15, 2003 7:29 PM
Subject: [Metastockusers] Full time private trading... ... an unattainable dream?
Hi group,
I’ve been reading some articles about the hedge fund management industry and how most funds sustained losses over the past 2 years especially since Sept 11 and the US corporate scandal. This is coupled with a statistic I read that most novice traders leave the trading arena after about 3 months. These events really got me thinking… … is it really possible for one to be a full time private trader?
I’ve been trading privately for about 4 years not and like most of you I’ve had my ups and downs. I am a firm believer that trading the market is a zero sum game. Someone MUST lose in order for me to make a gain. However, the law of averages dictates that it is just not possible for anyone to be winning all the time. That being the case, is it actually possible for anyone to be a full time private trader (i.e. trade using only his own money and make a living out of it)?
The only possible way for one to make money is possibly to be engaged in the right market at the right time, e.g. to switch between the equities/futures/derivatives markets or switch between the US/Europe/Asian markets. But we must also remember that a private trader does not have the resources or the mental capacity to handle so much information or research at a single time. What option would be left then? To specialise and trade only in specific markets and sit things out when everything is not going well? Do not forget that a downturn in the market can last for years.
We can go into the nitty gritty and say that we must set up stops to prevent losses, but I’m sure most of you have been in the situation where you were stopped out too early or you had given so much room before being stopped out that you suffered a painful loss. Don’t get me wrong, I believe that trading and investing is an art and there is no one mechanical way of getting the right results. Ultimately, we are all looking for one thing… …PROFITS. However, I have come under the increasing impression that the odds are severely stacked against the private trader.
I look forward to hearing from you guys on this matter.
Thanks.
Nick Leong
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