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"As for Steve Karnish, I believe he is a very clued up trader. His version
of Bollinger bands is successful."
Unclued, that's the true clue. The Bollinger Band System that you think
works so well and think you should have kept to yourself is not the BB
Oscillator that I personally use. Within the realm of how this indicator is
strutured, you can do a lot of things differently. Have you ran system test
to optimize the trigger levels? Or, are you defaulting to zero and one
hundred? Are you using a standard deviation of two (as opposed to 2.1, 2.2,
1.9, 1.8 or any other designated distance from the mean)? Have you tried
substituting the number periods you are analyzing? After all, who's to say
(unless you test) that the 20 period, simple moving average is better than a
10 period, expo-smoothed:
((C+2*Std(C,10)-Mov(C,10,E))/(4*(Std(C,10)))*100)
If I can design a dozen different systems with variations of the BBO and
they are all profitable...does that mean that "he is quite correct in
stating that very few mechanical systems really work"?
Astute traders, like Al and others, have found this "default" approach
helpful in building an approach that is comfortable. That makes me feel
good. But, for each indicator that's worth it's salt, there are dozens of
variations and rules that can help to improve results.
Nothing "frightens" me, I grew up in Detroit. Not idle, silly threats or
newbies warning about how the MS Experts are not profitable. Does Equis
trade for a living or do they market a financial software platform? What
always scares me is the individuals who expect to pull something off the
shelf and immediately become profitable.
"As trading systems go..." few traders have the discipline, patience, or
are willing to put in the time to be able to execute mechanical trades.
There is a very slim margin between "clued and screwed". Be careful of how
you trade and be careful of what you say.
Take care,
Steve Karnish, CTA
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Erich Kohlhofer" <KohlhoEG@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2001 11:44 PM
Subject: Newbes and trading systems
> Hi everyone
>
> I always enjoy a bit of implied aggression on the list. "I will rip
> your tongue out." Mark was being a bit tongue in cheek.
>
> Anyway as trading systems go, he is quite correct in stating that very
> few mechanical systems really work. e.g. only one of the MS experts work
> without discretion. I hope this frightens the shit out of some of you. I
> mean if they all worked, we would not need this forum.
>
> As for Steve Karnish, I believe he is a very clued up trader. His
> version of Bollinger bands is successful.
>
> Actually, I should have kept this to myself, as most of the traders who
> have passed the holy grail stage do. BTW do yourself a favour and get
> Van Tharp's book. Here he quite clearly states that it is system
> expectancy that counts and not what looks right on a chart.
>
> Enough for now, cheers
>
> Erich
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