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Steve wrote:
"What always scares me is the individuals who expect to pull something off
the
shelf and immediately become profitable."
These guys don't scare me.....they are the ones who help pay the wages
for
those who do know how to trade. (grin).
Adam Hefner
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, October 18, 2001 9:33 AM
Subject: the walrus was paul
> "As for Steve Karnish, I believe he is a very clued up trader. His version
> of Bollinger bands is successful."
>
> Unclued, that's the true clue. The Bollinger Band System that you think
> works so well and think you should have kept to yourself is not the BB
> Oscillator that I personally use. Within the realm of how this indicator
is
> strutured, you can do a lot of things differently. Have you ran system
test
> to optimize the trigger levels? Or, are you defaulting to zero and one
> hundred? Are you using a standard deviation of two (as opposed to 2.1,
2.2,
> 1.9, 1.8 or any other designated distance from the mean)? Have you tried
> substituting the number periods you are analyzing? After all, who's to
say
> (unless you test) that the 20 period, simple moving average is better than
a
> 10 period, expo-smoothed:
> ((C+2*Std(C,10)-Mov(C,10,E))/(4*(Std(C,10)))*100)
>
> If I can design a dozen different systems with variations of the BBO and
> they are all profitable...does that mean that "he is quite correct in
> stating that very few mechanical systems really work"?
>
> Astute traders, like Al and others, have found this "default" approach
> helpful in building an approach that is comfortable. That makes me feel
> good. But, for each indicator that's worth it's salt, there are dozens of
> variations and rules that can help to improve results.
>
> Nothing "frightens" me, I grew up in Detroit. Not idle, silly threats or
> newbies warning about how the MS Experts are not profitable. Does Equis
> trade for a living or do they market a financial software platform? What
> always scares me is the individuals who expect to pull something off the
> shelf and immediately become profitable.
>
> "As trading systems go..." few traders have the discipline, patience, or
> are willing to put in the time to be able to execute mechanical trades.
> There is a very slim margin between "clued and screwed". Be careful of
how
> you trade and be careful of what you say.
>
> Take care,
>
> Steve Karnish, CTA
> Cedar Creek Trading
> http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Erich Kohlhofer" <KohlhoEG@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2001 11:44 PM
> Subject: Newbes and trading systems
>
>
> > Hi everyone
> >
> > I always enjoy a bit of implied aggression on the list. "I will rip
> > your tongue out." Mark was being a bit tongue in cheek.
> >
> > Anyway as trading systems go, he is quite correct in stating that very
> > few mechanical systems really work. e.g. only one of the MS experts work
> > without discretion. I hope this frightens the shit out of some of you. I
> > mean if they all worked, we would not need this forum.
> >
> > As for Steve Karnish, I believe he is a very clued up trader. His
> > version of Bollinger bands is successful.
> >
> > Actually, I should have kept this to myself, as most of the traders who
> > have passed the holy grail stage do. BTW do yourself a favour and get
> > Van Tharp's book. Here he quite clearly states that it is system
> > expectancy that counts and not what looks right on a chart.
> >
> > Enough for now, cheers
> >
> > Erich
>
>
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