|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
> Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2001 08:11:38 -0700
> From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: as much as I hate the "funny mentals"...
>
> This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
>
> - ------=_NextPart_000_0057_01C1561A.2E5A68E0
> Content-Type: text/plain;
> charset="iso-8859-1"
> Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
>
> List,
>
> Hate to bring up fundamental rumors (but, the list now features daily =
> superficial tidbits). If anyone has a position in silver, you might =
> want to follow the bouncing ball:
>
> http://www.butlerresearch.com/comex.html
>
> Where are the Hunts when we need them?
>
> Steve Karnish, CTA
> Cedar Creek Trading
> http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
Steve,
I'm skeptical of this Butler fellow. He has been pressing his view that the
silver market will skyrocket for years now. It's a fact that the large
commercial traders are more often right than the small speculators, so I
would hesitate to bet against them. He obviously has a huge long silver
position, which must look pretty sick to him at this point while the big
commercials are hugely short. If he can jawbone the market up, why shouldn't
he try it? If he's successful in doing that, he'll probably just dump his
positions as soon as he is clear of ruin. He has a clear selfish motive for
saying what he is saying.
Butler has managed to convince many that his fundamental analysis is
correct, however, I haven't seen any independent confirmation of his
conslusions about government silver reserves, health of the silver mining
industry, and hedge positions. He and his followers are the only ones making
these claims, which makes me even more skeptical...
In addition, even if he is correct, the technical indicators, and commercial
positions should lead the charge into the silver market for any small
trader. Why throw yourself in front of a moving train, hoping it reverses
before you get run over? Why not wait until it's moving in your direction?
If butler is right, the bull should rage in silver for many years. There's
time to get in, without getting in prematurely. If you jump in blindly,
you'll have the same knot in the pit of your stomach that Butler has.
Regards,
Glenn Woolum
|