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Ton,
I hate to disagree with you, but, as you are discussing fundamentals on this
Technical Analysis list;
1) in trading Corus you are dabbling in a vey rigged market. Many of it's
competitors are partly state owned european steelmakers, and receive large
bungs of subsidy from the EC, that's you and me the taxpayers. In fact the
original European common market was set up with just that objective, to
(harmonise) rig the european steel market in 1948, and was then called the
iron and steel trade pact. Out of that humble fix, the present monster grew.
2) The long term chart of Corus is very hocus pocus. It must be a cobbled
together composite chart, as before the Oct 99 merger it did not exist,
there were two companies British Steel, and Hoogovens NV, competing and
trading, but denominated in two separate currencies, sterling and guilders.
I am very wary of composite charts, as they do not tell the truth about
anything discernible.
3) Then there is the euro currency. Since 1st Jan 1999 the Euro zone and its
member's currency has devalued by over 20 % against not only the pound, but
the dollar, and has also devalued against the Cuban peso, and the north
Korean won. In real terms your savings are worth 20% less than before the
euro was brought in. This currency effect has also distorted your chart,
which looks very different when expressed in a stable currency.
In my opinion, you will always get burnt faster in obviously rigged markets.
Simon
-----Original Message-----
From: A.J. Maas <anthmaas@xxxxxxxxx>
To: Metastock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: 24 April 2000 15:18
Subject: Re: Mother of all Highs
After the Analysis, now for another one ready to trade.....
This one can go down in the Guiness Book of Records for the Cash Cow of the
Year-award.
This company's historical progress is just an (+0,+100) Oscillator by
itselve, see the left chart
since 1984, eg and is thus none, zero, nil, niks (no progress at all).
Current break(fall out) is @ €1.75 and that will also be the Stop/Loss for
this downtrade***.
Target = 0.556 and for me a satisfiable trade will be when the highest GAP
above 1.31 will
get filled first, and/but I am out for the full fill of the lowest GAP at
0.898. As a result of that,
than the Chart too will become so weak that a single crashday at the end of
this year or one
throughout the next coming 2 year bearmarket, will be sufficient to reach
the final Target(0.556).
Company(Corus) will than be back to were the Chart originaly started: 1984 -
€0.65 (and
economicaly speaking, that's also 20 years wasted/down the drain !!!!!)
Corus is weakly positioned in the heavy steal industry, a sector that has,
throughout the decades,
hardly ever made any acceptable profits, let alone show any growth in
profits.
Its main clients are the airoplane-, shipyards- and construction- and
building industries, all not
that well flourishing sectors either. Add to this, that since that there is
now also clear evidence that
the economies worldwide are weak-e-ning, eg well over their last year made
(economic cycle) peak,
than I am also not surprised that cyclical stocks like Corus were+will be
the first one's to get hit;
with for results that its shares nosedive into a well broad bear market.
***Current possitions are a few €1.86 Puts Oct00, but I will roll them over
into Jan01, preferably
Apr01 series. This could mean that the strike price will be slightly
lowered, eg to €1.80, but
"so be it". And since that capturing the full dive down to 0.898 is my
aim, than I will also make
this into a bearspread, by adding to my position some longer running
options, eg ones with
the strike years 2002 + 2003.
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
Homepage http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
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