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Ton -
Thank you for your consistent input to the Metastock group. Your
analysis of Corus is interesting. Is the Corus to which you refer the
same as I find here in the US as CGA (Corus Group)? How do the prices I
see in $US relate to the prices to which you are referring?
Thanks again.
Simon Roberts wrote:
> Ton,
>
> I hate to disagree with you, but, as you are discussing fundamentals on this
> Technical Analysis list;
>
> 1) in trading Corus you are dabbling in a vey rigged market. Many of it's
> competitors are partly state owned european steelmakers, and receive large
> bungs of subsidy from the EC, that's you and me the taxpayers. In fact the
> original European common market was set up with just that objective, to
> (harmonise) rig the european steel market in 1948, and was then called the
> iron and steel trade pact. Out of that humble fix, the present monster grew.
>
> 2) The long term chart of Corus is very hocus pocus. It must be a cobbled
> together composite chart, as before the Oct 99 merger it did not exist,
> there were two companies British Steel, and Hoogovens NV, competing and
> trading, but denominated in two separate currencies, sterling and guilders.
> I am very wary of composite charts, as they do not tell the truth about
> anything discernible.
>
> 3) Then there is the euro currency. Since 1st Jan 1999 the Euro zone and its
> member's currency has devalued by over 20 % against not only the pound, but
> the dollar, and has also devalued against the Cuban peso, and the north
> Korean won. In real terms your savings are worth 20% less than before the
> euro was brought in. This currency effect has also distorted your chart,
> which looks very different when expressed in a stable currency.
>
> In my opinion, you will always get burnt faster in obviously rigged markets.
>
> Simon
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: A.J. Maas <anthmaas@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: Metastock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: 24 April 2000 15:18
> Subject: Re: Mother of all Highs
>
> After the Analysis, now for another one ready to trade.....
>
> This one can go down in the Guiness Book of Records for the Cash Cow of the
> Year-award.
>
> This company's historical progress is just an (+0,+100) Oscillator by
> itselve, see the left chart
> since 1984, eg and is thus none, zero, nil, niks (no progress at all).
>
> Current break(fall out) is @ €1.75 and that will also be the Stop/Loss for
> this downtrade***.
> Target = 0.556 and for me a satisfiable trade will be when the highest GAP
> above 1.31 will
> get filled first, and/but I am out for the full fill of the lowest GAP at
> 0.898. As a result of that,
> than the Chart too will become so weak that a single crashday at the end of
> this year or one
> throughout the next coming 2 year bearmarket, will be sufficient to reach
> the final Target(0.556).
> Company(Corus) will than be back to were the Chart originaly started: 1984 -
> €0.65 (and
> economicaly speaking, that's also 20 years wasted/down the drain !!!!!)
>
> Corus is weakly positioned in the heavy steal industry, a sector that has,
> throughout the decades,
> hardly ever made any acceptable profits, let alone show any growth in
> profits.
> Its main clients are the airoplane-, shipyards- and construction- and
> building industries, all not
> that well flourishing sectors either. Add to this, that since that there is
> now also clear evidence that
> the economies worldwide are weak-e-ning, eg well over their last year made
> (economic cycle) peak,
> than I am also not surprised that cyclical stocks like Corus were+will be
> the first one's to get hit;
> with for results that its shares nosedive into a well broad bear market.
>
> ***Current possitions are a few €1.86 Puts Oct00, but I will roll them over
> into Jan01, preferably
> Apr01 series. This could mean that the strike price will be slightly
> lowered, eg to €1.80, but
> "so be it". And since that capturing the full dive down to 0.898 is my
> aim, than I will also make
> this into a bearspread, by adding to my position some longer running
> options, eg ones with
> the strike years 2002 + 2003.
>
> Regards,
> Ton Maas
> ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
> Homepage http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
>
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