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Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
Homepage http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon Roberts"
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: woensdag 26 april 2000 13:03
Subject: Corus hocus pocus
Ton,
I hate to disagree with you, but, as you are discussing fundamentals on this
Technical Analysis list;
A). I am not discussing Funda's, merely expressing technical facts, and/but
since you want to counter my public (for Adam) technical
based Trade example.............................................
1) in trading Corus you are dabbling in a vey rigged market. Many of it's
competitors are partly state owned european steelmakers, and receive large
bungs of subsidy from the EC, that's you and me the taxpayers. In fact the
original European common market was set up with just that objective, to
(harmonise) rig the european steel market in 1948, and was then called the
iron and steel trade pact. Out of that humble fix, the present monster grew.
Ato1). Yep dabbled it is, but no: too many have been privatised over the years. "State owned"
has been reduced to having small & medium NON-CONTROLING stakes in these
publicly listed co's (on and off Exchanges).
The ECC "bungs" you refer to, were handouts by former ECC original Gov's back in
the early 90ees. And Commision's Policy has changed for the better :
most (all) co's within the ECC will now + in future have to hold up their own pants.
And this is not true for the co's (public + gov owned) outside the ECC, and that's
already a disadvantage for the ECC co's, since the Commision will not provide for
anymore subsidies and legalised bonusses(read: give favourible contracts). It has
become an "open" market, where the (sub-) contractors are publicly served and where
the give away contracts are publicly auctioned, and price therefore is also "publicly" made.
So the competition from elsewhere(read: outside the ECC) are now in a "favourable"
position. They can barge in on ECC Community (over) spending, not having one straw
being put in their way. And why not, let the strongest + most efficient co succeed (whatever
their origin).
Corus is better off selling its whole offset, and transfer themselves into an investing co.
The previous Holland America Line(HAL) for example, a privat co that was exploiting
cruises, had sold off all of its "sea" related possesions, and are now a very succesfull
Investment Co.(Adventure), eg being a "shareholder" in a mere 250+ companies, and
only for the past 12 years finaly showing a great track record, eg in Fundamental Analys
meaning a YOY continiously prooven profits growth (and this is sometimes very high),
which back in the 70ees and 80ees(being a Cruise Co./Liner) they weren't capable of.
All in all, a "flourishing" co, and that's of my best interest (and is what in the end only counts).
2) The long term chart of Corus is very hocus pocus. It must be a cobbled
together composite chart, as before the Oct 99 merger it did not exist,
there were two companies British Steel, and Hoogovens NV, competing and
trading, but denominated in two separate currencies, sterling and guilders.
I am very wary of composite charts, as they do not tell the truth about
anything discernible.
Ato2). It is the official Exchange listing data in €uro, and since listing is in €uro's and
historical data has been equaly adjusted for the merger, it is also the official
representation of the "blind and the lame" 's lookback period.
No daubt that you will see BS's history oscillating in Pounds within a same
historical range, for that too the BS co was near clinical death bankrupticy back
in the Tatcher days, if I'm not mistaken. Only artificialy kept alive by Tatchers'
pulling her right-hand (strings) - hand(outs).
The truth is that since posting(€1.58) it is now @ €1.52 within a Stage 4(Bear)
phase(StageTheory). Breakin the Support €1.59 solidly, will have €1.17 for Target
(source: BeursStadium 000425).
3) Then there is the euro currency. Since 1st Jan 1999 the Euro zone and its
member's currency has devalued by over 20 % against not only the pound, but
the dollar, and has also devalued against the Cuban peso, and the north
Korean won. In real terms your savings are worth 20% less than before the
euro was brought in. This currency effect has also distorted your chart,
which looks very different when expressed in a stable currency.
Ato3). Now apart from the US you cannot realy describe these economies as
flourishing, now can you?. That's some quality listing you present here.
Historicaly tests have proven that the Exchange Rates, unlike goods+products
prices, do NOT represent a pictural value of an wealthy or unhealthy economy.
What the rates do represent, compared to others, is what at a given time is
"in demand" or isn't. That the €uro is not very in demand at the moment can
have all sorts of reasons, of which the main is that on Launch 1-1-1999 the
at that time being "new" and "hot" labels it had have vanished. Also not to think
of the fact that within a couple of years more of the unstable currencies
(BritPound, Drachme,Krone) will join the current club of previous stable
(DM+DGR+Shilling), lesser stable(FrenchFranc) and unstable currencies
(IrishPound,Lire,Peseta) that currently make up the €uro.The Ghost of 1992
(BritPound) and in lesser degree the Jo-Jo(Lire) still place a big burdon on
the €uro's Young and Fragile legs. However, fundamentaly the €uro is healthy
and kept healthy, since that the former BundesBank stablelising (price) policies
are the ground, basis and underlay of a Hard value.
The only "doubt" question that remains (and therefore "weakens" for now
its popularity) is will the weaker economies(Brittan,Greece) that are on the
door step of joining, and the historicaly weak(Italy,Spain+Portugal) that have
already joined, withstand another economic cycle dip? My guess therfore
is that the Year 2002/2003 will tell the thruth of real ECC'ers and defacto ECC'ers.
This is an unsecurity the (financial) markets do not like/appreciate and therefore
will keep the €uro in the unpopular currencies camp for the coming years.
But a few Interest Rates rises will give it back its popularity, which it deserves.
And thats also due to the now "low" value, the ECC is importing inflation. The
EuroBank's target for inflation is to keep it below 2%, and with the current and still
rising rate being @ 2.1+% now, a super-visory step will be forthcoming, eg a 4th
very recent rise to be announced on coming Thursday. Level is then still 1.5 %-2%
below the US official rates, which also explains part of the deprecancy between
both the currencies.
In my opinion, you will always get burnt faster in obviously rigged markets.
Simon
Ato4). Well, now you talk opinion and not Fundamental facts or Technical Analysis.
So for what's that worth:
"If you do not feel comfortable, and that's basicaly applying to any Trade, than don't
proceed with it. It's not the "amount" of Trades that count, but the "plus amounts"
made on/with it/them".
-----Original Message-----
From: A.J. Maas
To: Metastock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: 24 April 2000 15:18
Subject: Re: Mother of all Highs
After the Analysis, now for another one ready to trade.....
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