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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Forward response to Equis support
email.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For me, Outlook Express is far more used than
Outlook and I don't understand why Outlook Express is not compliant with
Metastock. Why ignore a de facto industry standard?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks a lot to all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Jean-Paul Duchesne</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:maxpaul21@xxxxxxxxxxx"; title=maxpaul21@xxxxxxxxxxx>Jean-Paul
Duchesne</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:support@xxxxxxxxx"; title=support@xxxxxxxxx>Equis
Support</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 25, 2000 11:42 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: Metastock pro 7.0</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Lynn,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thank you for your email.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Unfortunatly, I cannot check or uncheck the Allow
emails alert since it is greyed. It seems I am not the only one to have this
problem.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I tried to delete and re-install my program:
nothing better. I installed my program in three other computers with the same
basic configuration and with Outlook express, two worked perfectly, one other
and mine have this annoying problem and the grayed Allow email
alert!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It is difficult to see something
logical.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If you can give me a solution,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thank you.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Jean-Paul Duchesne</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Equis Support
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:'maxpaul21@xxxxxxxxxxx'"
title=maxpaul21@xxxxxxxxxxx>'maxpaul21@xxxxxxxxxxx'</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 25, 2000 5:46
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: Metastock pro 7.0</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=558272621-25042000>Jean-Paul,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=558272621-25042000>
<P><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial>Outlook Express is
incompatible with the e-mail alerts sent by the Expert Advisor<SPAN
class=558272621-25042000> in MetaStock Professional</SPAN>. <SPAN
class=558272621-25042000>To receive e-mail alerts, you must have a full MAPI
compliant e-mail program installed as the default e-mail client in
Windows.</SPAN><B></P></B></FONT></FONT></FONT>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><FONT size=2><FONT
color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial>Outlook Express</FONT></FONT></FONT> is
MAPI-compliant, but unfortunately it only supports a limited subset of MAPI,
called Simple MAPI. Unfortunately, our e-mail alerts currently require
full MAPI, which <FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial>Outlook
Express</FONT></FONT></FONT> does not support.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial>The reason we need full
MAPI is that users can create multiple Profiles in Outlook and Exchange. If
you try to send an e-mail using Simple MAPI to a program with multiple
Profiles, a dialog will come up asking which Profile to use. This would
obviously render e-mail alerts useless to users, since no alerts would be sent
until they came back to their machine and chose a Profile.<SPAN
class=558272621-25042000> </SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2><FONT color=#0000ff><FONT face=Arial><SPAN
class=558272621-25042000>You can deselect the option that Allows e-mail
alert.</SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></SPAN><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT size=2><SPAN
class=558272621-25042000><FONT color=#0000ff
face=Arial></FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT size=2><SPAN class=558272621-25042000><FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial>Open Tools menu</FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=558272621-25042000>Select
Options</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=558272621-25042000>Click
Alerts tab</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=558272621-25042000>Uncheck the "Allow e-mail alerts"
box</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=558272621-25042000>Click
OK</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=558272621-25042000>Thank
you,<FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2></FONT></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=558272621-25042000><FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>Lynn<BR>Equis
Support<BR><U></U></FONT><U><FONT color=#0000ff face="Times New Roman"
size=2><<A href="http://www.equis.com/";
target=_blank>http://www.equis.com/</A>></FONT></U><BR><U><FONT
color=#0000ff face="Times New Roman" size=2><<A
href="http://www.equis.com/customer/support/";
target=_blank>http://www.equis.com/customer/support/</A>></FONT></U><BR><BR><FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>Please include previous email answers and
questions in your response.<BR><BR>Equis and MetaStock and MetaStock
Professional are registered trademarks<BR>of Equis International. Achelis
Binary Wave, The DownLoader, Expert<BR>Advisor, OptionScope, Quotecenter, and
Smart Charts are trademarks of<BR>Equis International.</FONT>
</P></SPAN></FONT>
<P> </P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT
size=2><SPAN class=558272621-25042000> </SPAN>-----Original
Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Jean-Paul Duchesne
[mailto:maxpaul21@xxxxxxxxxxx]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, April 25, 2000 9:30
AM<BR><B>To:</B> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Metastock pro
7.0<BR><BR></DIV></FONT></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Nobody had this problem?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Nobody at Equis can give me a
solution?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Help!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">
<DIV> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Every time I open MSK pro 7.0, I have an error
message saying with a title "Microsoft Outlook": "Either there is no default
mail client or the current mail client cannot fulfill the messaging request.
Please run Microsoft Outlook and set it as the default mail client".
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have Microsoft Office 2000 in my
computer(Windows 98 SE) but I don't use Outlook. I use Outlook Express and
it is set as my default email program. If Outlook Express is not my default
email program, I cannot have my emails from Hotmail.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Please, if somebody has solved this small
problem, I should be happy to know how I can open MSK without this error
message.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thank you very much.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jean-Paul
Duchesne</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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From: "Michel Amelinckx" <Michel.Amelinckx@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: Chandelier
Date: Wed, 26 Apr 2000 15:37:26 +0200
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<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=521102913-26042000>This
is most interesting, one down point is that the Y axis scale starts from 0. But
by making one of the two lines invisible (click on index before the line) the Y
axis is back to normal. This can be very useful for other things. like
line drawing to a certain extend. is this what you looking
for.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=521102913-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=521102913-26042000>Greetings</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=521102913-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=521102913-26042000>Mickey</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On
Behalf Of </B>Kornberg Family<BR><B>Sent:</B> woensdag 26 april 2000
11:33<BR><B>To:</B> A.J. Maas<BR><B>Cc:</B> Metastock List<BR><B>Subject:</B>
RE: Chandelier<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=300071209-26042000>Hi
Ton,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>Attached is a chart with the Chandelier and the code
you suggested.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=300071209-26042000>As
you can see, the Chandelier plots as it did before but on the trade day, a
line to 0 appears. The Chandelier plots before the trade day. I
want the code to plot the Chandelier but only from the trade day ie. not to
the left of the trade day but only to the right. I substituted each line
you suggested into the code but none did what I wanted.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=300071209-26042000>Just
to make sure, I copy the formula below.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=300071209-26042000>Day1
:= Input("Day of Trade",1,31,4);<BR>Month1 := Input("Month of
Trade",1,12,1);<BR>Year1 := Input("Year of
Trade",1900,2400,2000);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>ATRDays:=Input("ATR
Days",1,30,10);<BR>ATRHighMult:=Input("ATR Multiplier From
High",1,5,3.0);<BR>ATRCloseMult:=Input("ATR Multiplier From
Close",1,5,2.5);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>PdsTrade:=BarsSince(DayOfMonth()=Day1 AND Month()=
Month1 AND Year()= Year1);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>HHVValue:=HHV(H,LastValue(PdsTrade));</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=300071209-26042000>{The
stop from the HHV}<BR>HHVStop:= HHVValue -
ATRHighMult*ATR(ATRDays);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=300071209-26042000>{The
stop from that bar's H}<BR>HighStop:= H - ATRHighMult*ATR(ATRDays);<BR>{The
stop from that bar's C}<BR>CloseStop:= C -
ATRCloseMult*ATR(ATRDays);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>{Calculates the Highest stop from the H stop or the C
stop - Puts the stop at the highest stop}<BR>TodaysCalc:= If(HighStop >
CloseStop, HighStop, CloseStop);</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>{After the H or C stop is highest, it compares that
to the HHV stop. The stop is then calculated on the highest
value}<BR>TodaysStop:= If(L <= PREV, TodaysCalc, If(HHVStop < PREV,
PREV, If(HHVStop ><BR>C,PREV,HHVStop)));</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>If(PdsTrade>0,TodaysStop,PdsTrade>0);<BR> <BR>TodaysStop;</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>Suggestions?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>Thanks,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=300071209-26042000>Andrew</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> A.J. Maas
[mailto:anthmaas@xxxxxxxxx]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 26 April 2000
8:17<BR><B>To:</B> Kornberg Family<BR><B>Cc:</B>
Metastock-List<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: Chandelier<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>If(PdsTrade>0,TodaysStop,PdsTrade)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>If(PdsTrade>0,TodaysStop,PdsTrade=0)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>If(PdsTrade>0,TodaysStop,PdsTrade<0)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT
size=2>If(PdsTrade>0,TodaysStop,PdsTrade>0)</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Like the one below, all</FONT><FONT size=2> the above
versions too will work, and their display will now differ (in your
favor{ite way}):</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>" start display at Trade-entry-day-and-later
".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>MSK isn't capable to plot-into-the-future, eg further
right than the last bar, and for indicators.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>An EXTEND TO THE RIGHT </FONT><FONT size=2>user definable
check option on both the indicators, as well as on the set
of available</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Trendline Studies, would </FONT><FONT size=2>therefore be
much appreciated.</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Do r</FONT><FONT size=2>eturn some pictures of your
"researches(signals?)" to the List, eg the how to's, since you've
accomplished</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>something interesting. </DIV></FONT>
<DIV><BR>Regards,<BR>Ton Maas<BR><A
href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Dismiss
the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.<BR>Homepage <A
href="http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas";>http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Kornberg Family </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> ms-irb@xxxxxxxxx </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> dinsdag 25 april 2000
8:15</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Chandelier</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN class=190551206-25042000>Hi
Ton,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN
class=190551206-25042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN class=190551206-25042000>As you suggested, I put
the following line in - </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>If(PdsTrade>0,TodaysStop,0)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN class=190551206-25042000>It still plotted before
the day of entry except a single line appeared on the trade day. Is
there a way to plot the chandelier from day of entry to the right and not
before the day of entry?</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN
class=190551206-25042000></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><SPAN
class=190551206-25042000>Andrew</SPAN></FONT></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Apr 26 07:47:37 2000
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References: <001601bfaa4f$da950200$786fa8c0@xxxxx> <000e01bfaa67$8b26ea40$c931bccc@xxxxxxx> <001e01bfaacc$9c3da840$d92467d1@xxxxxxx> <004a01bfaaeb$27adc7c0$b431bccc@xxxxxxx> <000701bfac8d$88af0180$74a094d1@xxxxxxx> <002b01bfacae$a0d40640$1c31bccc@xxxxxxx> <002f01bfad1c$9a4a18a0$c28d6395@xxxxxxx> <005801bfaf81$56f4f7c0$7531bccc@xxxxxxx>
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Status:
The question I guess is whether you should ever buck the
commercials in the commitment of traders report as they
accumulate a position, in this case, the grains. I think you have
to consider whether your system is designed to trade short term
signals or you're a longer term trend follower. I don't see it very
relevant for Adam's P&L techniques, and even's Steve K's
oscillator signals could continue to give accurate calls for short
term cycles while the commercials continue to accumulate.
My experience with the commercials is that they accumulate a
long position often well before the bottom has arrived, and even
more of interest, will begin dumping this position long before the top.
For those of us who trade in 2-3 day moves, I find there's simply
too many profitable opportunities outside the approval zone of
commercial interest.
As for the current grains, there clearly a potential short sale set
up based on pattern recognition in all three, with corn and beans
exhibiting the same pattern. I'll simply sell stop yesterday's lows
to see if these patterns trigger or not. Waiting for this kind of
set up takes the trade decision out of the realm of prediction or
assumption of fundamentals. The trigger is based on failure. In
this case the risk is low as defined by yesterday's trading ranges.
Scheier
Steve Karnish wrote:
> Walter,
>
> If I allowed "thinking" to get in the way, I would never short corn this
> morning. I "thought" about it a lot last night and it only hurt my head.
> I'll be closing out two profitable long positions and going short, but other
> technical evidence seems to support the long side.
>
> Speaking of thinking: I "think" the largest university in Idaho (U of I)
> and that PAC 10 school (WSU) would be upset that you called them community
> colleges. They're not Michigan State, but after doing seminars throughout
> the state of Michigan for the "national champions", back in the middle 70's,
> with the AgEcon Department, I can favorably compare the three universities.
> You must have gotten the community college reference confused. I have
> taught a continuing education course on "How to Pull Hungarian Strudel".
>
> My mechanical system is now long wheat and short corn and is supporting the
> spread positions (actually, creating them). Who would of "thought" it would
> come to this.
>
> "Qui non Intellegit, aut taceat aut descat",
>
> Steve Karnish
> Cedar Creek Trading
> http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, April 23, 2000 5:06 AM
> Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
>
> > Hi Steve
> >
> > Thanks for your email ... gee ...I hardly know where to start.
> >
> > "... Shuckin', jivin', and dancin' around, ..." ya .... I got that.
> >
> > "... how exactly do you (or anyone) use the
> > | information that the funds are long 60,000 contracts of corn? ..."
> >
> > I'm sure that the newbies in your community college courses ask similar
> > types of questions about the Dow being at 11,000 or whatever. Of course
> > you're not going to tell them any thing interesting, i.e.,
> cross-correlation
> > studies, etc. Instead, just give them some "quick and dirty" TA stuff<G>
> >
> > But before we get off on a whole list of broker jive Vs trader stuff ... I
> > need to know where you are on this "thinking" issue.
> >
> > If it's really about thinking ... then we should probably do it quietly so
> > as not to disturb anyone. <G>
> >
> > Best regards
> >
> > Walter
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2000 7:00 PM
> > Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
> >
> >
> > | "We would prefer to buy the wheat and sell the corn once it breaks
> > | back above the 41 cent level and keep risk tight and use an objective of
> > 53
> > | as it is the bottomside of the chart gap left on 2/14/00 to 2/15/00."
> > |
> > | Walter,
> > |
> > | My whole approach to the markets is one of a contrarian. To me: putting
> > on
> > | the spread at 41 cents (for a big old profit objective of 12 cents) is
> not
> > | nearly as wonderful as putting it on at 27 cents. What is "keeping the
> > risk
> > | tight"? Buying at 41 and stopping it out at 36 (or putting the stop
> > closer
> > | and assuring a loss)? I'd rather buy at 27 and stop it out under
> contract
> > | lows.
> > |
> > | On another similar subject: how exactly do you (or anyone) use the
> > | information that the funds are long 60,000 contracts of corn? My
> biggest
> > | victories, during the last three years, have come from taking positions
> > | opposite the funds. When they cover their positions, it can be a whole
> > | bunch of fun. Examine the track record of the funds, over the long
> term,
> > | and I believe you'll find that it's not very stellar. So, the funds are
> > net
> > | short wheat and net long (a bunch) of corn. Gee, I'm shakin' in my
> > | Sorrel's. Bullish consensus tends to adhere to the principle that when
> > | enough people buy a market and think something is going up, that there
> is
> > no
> > | one left to get long.
> > |
> > | What's going to make this spread widen? The apex of the 22 year sunspot
> > | cycle coming in the next two weeks? The warmest 3 months of weather in
> > | recorded US history (ushering in a severe drought)? Massive wheat
> > purchases
> > | by China? Short covering by the "semi-intelligent" collective of
> > | ex-Turtles? Who knows?
> > |
> > | This is just one position in portfolios that are diversified in many
> > | non-correlated markets. As Frank Zappa once wrote:
> > | "I may be totally wrong, but I'm a dancin' fool".
> > |
> > | Shuckin', jivin', and dancin' around,
> > |
> > | Steve Karnish
> > | Cedar Creek Trading
> > | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > |
> > | ----- Original Message -----
> > | From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> > | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > | Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2000 12:04 PM
> > | Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
> > |
> > |
> > | > Hi Steve
> > | >
> > | > I found this on the Allendale site. Is this what you are referring to
> > ...
> > | > long wheat / short corn spread.
> > | >
> > | > Best regards
> > | >
> > | > Walter
> > | >
> > | > =============
> > | >
> > | > The July Wheat/Corn spread has the wheat at a 29 cent premium to the
> > wheat
> > | > and after 21 consecutive days of closing above trendline support, it
> > | failed
> > | > today. The long term trend of this spread is still down with a life of
> > | > contract high of 86 cents premium the wheat and a life of contract low
> > of
> > | 22
> > | > cents. 12 out of 16 years the spread has become narrower from now into
> > | > contract expiration. In 1984 and in 1996 corn was actually worth more
> > than
> > | > wheat. We would prefer to buy the wheat and sell the corn once it
> breaks
> > | > back above the 41 cent level and keep risk tight and use an objective
> of
> > | 53
> > | > as it is the bottomside of the chart gap left on 2/14/00 to 2/15/00.
> > | >
> > | > ===============
> > | >
> > | >
> > | >
> > | > ----- Original Message -----
> > | > From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > | > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > | > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 1:09 PM
> > | > Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
> > | >
> > | >
> > | > | Walter,
> > | > |
> > | > | I way too much of an idiot to figure out the internal goals of the
> > | > | commercials. I could guess about what "flat price volume" is, but
> > quite
> > | > | frankly it would be pure, dare I say: "speculation".
> > | "Fun-DAH-mental-ly"
> > | > I
> > | > | have the knowledge of a third grader (and some 8 year olds, born
> into
> > | farm
> > | > | families, probably have a better understanding). I guess this is
> all
> > | easy
> > | > | to rationalize by saying that all fundamentals end up in the price.
> > | I've
> > | > | traded stocks for years by the "symbols" and couldn't even tell you
> > what
> > | > | many of the companies do to create revenue. Give me the price
> history
> > | and
> > | > | I'll render an opinion. Over the years, "thinking"
> > | > | has gotten me into a lot of trouble. So, sorry I can't answer your
> > | > | question. You still haven't told me: what do you think of long
> > wheat,
> > | > | short corn. I currently have my largest spread position in twenty
> > five
> > | > | years. Am I going to have to slap Dick Gephardt around to make sure
> > | that
> > | > | China gets favored trade status. I understand that the largest
> wheat
> > | > | growing area in China is currently at 9% of normal measurable
> > | > precipitation.
> > | > | Any thoughts are welcome.
> > | > |
> > | > | Take care,
> > | > |
> > | > | Steve Karnish
> > | > | Cedar Creek Trading
> > | > | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > | > | ----- Original Message -----
> > | > | From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> > | > | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > | > | Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 6:30 AM
> > | > | Subject: KW0K/KW0N
> > | > |
> > | > |
> > | > | > Hi Steve
> > | > | >
> > | > | > In the KC wheat markets, I know that most of the spread activity
> is
> > in
> > | > | > rolling May positions into July.
> > | > |
> > | >
> > | >
> > |
> >
|