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Hi Steve
I found this on the Allendale site. Is this what you are referring to ...
long wheat / short corn spread.
Best regards
Walter
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The July Wheat/Corn spread has the wheat at a 29 cent premium to the wheat
and after 21 consecutive days of closing above trendline support, it failed
today. The long term trend of this spread is still down with a life of
contract high of 86 cents premium the wheat and a life of contract low of 22
cents. 12 out of 16 years the spread has become narrower from now into
contract expiration. In 1984 and in 1996 corn was actually worth more than
wheat. We would prefer to buy the wheat and sell the corn once it breaks
back above the 41 cent level and keep risk tight and use an objective of 53
as it is the bottomside of the chart gap left on 2/14/00 to 2/15/00.
===============
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 1:09 PM
Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
| Walter,
|
| I way too much of an idiot to figure out the internal goals of the
| commercials. I could guess about what "flat price volume" is, but quite
| frankly it would be pure, dare I say: "speculation". "Fun-DAH-mental-ly"
I
| have the knowledge of a third grader (and some 8 year olds, born into farm
| families, probably have a better understanding). I guess this is all easy
| to rationalize by saying that all fundamentals end up in the price. I've
| traded stocks for years by the "symbols" and couldn't even tell you what
| many of the companies do to create revenue. Give me the price history and
| I'll render an opinion. Over the years, "thinking"
| has gotten me into a lot of trouble. So, sorry I can't answer your
| question. You still haven't told me: what do you think of long wheat,
| short corn. I currently have my largest spread position in twenty five
| years. Am I going to have to slap Dick Gephardt around to make sure that
| China gets favored trade status. I understand that the largest wheat
| growing area in China is currently at 9% of normal measurable
precipitation.
| Any thoughts are welcome.
|
| Take care,
|
| Steve Karnish
| Cedar Creek Trading
| http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
| ----- Original Message -----
| From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
| To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
| Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 6:30 AM
| Subject: KW0K/KW0N
|
|
| > Hi Steve
| >
| > In the KC wheat markets, I know that most of the spread activity is in
| > rolling May positions into July.
|
|