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Walter,
If I allowed "thinking" to get in the way, I would never short corn this
morning. I "thought" about it a lot last night and it only hurt my head.
I'll be closing out two profitable long positions and going short, but other
technical evidence seems to support the long side.
Speaking of thinking: I "think" the largest university in Idaho (U of I)
and that PAC 10 school (WSU) would be upset that you called them community
colleges. They're not Michigan State, but after doing seminars throughout
the state of Michigan for the "national champions", back in the middle 70's,
with the AgEcon Department, I can favorably compare the three universities.
You must have gotten the community college reference confused. I have
taught a continuing education course on "How to Pull Hungarian Strudel".
My mechanical system is now long wheat and short corn and is supporting the
spread positions (actually, creating them). Who would of "thought" it would
come to this.
"Qui non Intellegit, aut taceat aut descat",
Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, April 23, 2000 5:06 AM
Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
> Hi Steve
>
> Thanks for your email ... gee ...I hardly know where to start.
>
> "... Shuckin', jivin', and dancin' around, ..." ya .... I got that.
>
> "... how exactly do you (or anyone) use the
> | information that the funds are long 60,000 contracts of corn? ..."
>
> I'm sure that the newbies in your community college courses ask similar
> types of questions about the Dow being at 11,000 or whatever. Of course
> you're not going to tell them any thing interesting, i.e.,
cross-correlation
> studies, etc. Instead, just give them some "quick and dirty" TA stuff<G>
>
> But before we get off on a whole list of broker jive Vs trader stuff ... I
> need to know where you are on this "thinking" issue.
>
> If it's really about thinking ... then we should probably do it quietly so
> as not to disturb anyone. <G>
>
> Best regards
>
> Walter
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2000 7:00 PM
> Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
>
>
> | "We would prefer to buy the wheat and sell the corn once it breaks
> | back above the 41 cent level and keep risk tight and use an objective of
> 53
> | as it is the bottomside of the chart gap left on 2/14/00 to 2/15/00."
> |
> | Walter,
> |
> | My whole approach to the markets is one of a contrarian. To me: putting
> on
> | the spread at 41 cents (for a big old profit objective of 12 cents) is
not
> | nearly as wonderful as putting it on at 27 cents. What is "keeping the
> risk
> | tight"? Buying at 41 and stopping it out at 36 (or putting the stop
> closer
> | and assuring a loss)? I'd rather buy at 27 and stop it out under
contract
> | lows.
> |
> | On another similar subject: how exactly do you (or anyone) use the
> | information that the funds are long 60,000 contracts of corn? My
biggest
> | victories, during the last three years, have come from taking positions
> | opposite the funds. When they cover their positions, it can be a whole
> | bunch of fun. Examine the track record of the funds, over the long
term,
> | and I believe you'll find that it's not very stellar. So, the funds are
> net
> | short wheat and net long (a bunch) of corn. Gee, I'm shakin' in my
> | Sorrel's. Bullish consensus tends to adhere to the principle that when
> | enough people buy a market and think something is going up, that there
is
> no
> | one left to get long.
> |
> | What's going to make this spread widen? The apex of the 22 year sunspot
> | cycle coming in the next two weeks? The warmest 3 months of weather in
> | recorded US history (ushering in a severe drought)? Massive wheat
> purchases
> | by China? Short covering by the "semi-intelligent" collective of
> | ex-Turtles? Who knows?
> |
> | This is just one position in portfolios that are diversified in many
> | non-correlated markets. As Frank Zappa once wrote:
> | "I may be totally wrong, but I'm a dancin' fool".
> |
> | Shuckin', jivin', and dancin' around,
> |
> | Steve Karnish
> | Cedar Creek Trading
> | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> |
> | ----- Original Message -----
> | From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2000 12:04 PM
> | Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
> |
> |
> | > Hi Steve
> | >
> | > I found this on the Allendale site. Is this what you are referring to
> ...
> | > long wheat / short corn spread.
> | >
> | > Best regards
> | >
> | > Walter
> | >
> | > =============
> | >
> | > The July Wheat/Corn spread has the wheat at a 29 cent premium to the
> wheat
> | > and after 21 consecutive days of closing above trendline support, it
> | failed
> | > today. The long term trend of this spread is still down with a life of
> | > contract high of 86 cents premium the wheat and a life of contract low
> of
> | 22
> | > cents. 12 out of 16 years the spread has become narrower from now into
> | > contract expiration. In 1984 and in 1996 corn was actually worth more
> than
> | > wheat. We would prefer to buy the wheat and sell the corn once it
breaks
> | > back above the 41 cent level and keep risk tight and use an objective
of
> | 53
> | > as it is the bottomside of the chart gap left on 2/14/00 to 2/15/00.
> | >
> | > ===============
> | >
> | >
> | >
> | > ----- Original Message -----
> | > From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | > Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 1:09 PM
> | > Subject: Re: KW0K/KW0N
> | >
> | >
> | > | Walter,
> | > |
> | > | I way too much of an idiot to figure out the internal goals of the
> | > | commercials. I could guess about what "flat price volume" is, but
> quite
> | > | frankly it would be pure, dare I say: "speculation".
> | "Fun-DAH-mental-ly"
> | > I
> | > | have the knowledge of a third grader (and some 8 year olds, born
into
> | farm
> | > | families, probably have a better understanding). I guess this is
all
> | easy
> | > | to rationalize by saying that all fundamentals end up in the price.
> | I've
> | > | traded stocks for years by the "symbols" and couldn't even tell you
> what
> | > | many of the companies do to create revenue. Give me the price
history
> | and
> | > | I'll render an opinion. Over the years, "thinking"
> | > | has gotten me into a lot of trouble. So, sorry I can't answer your
> | > | question. You still haven't told me: what do you think of long
> wheat,
> | > | short corn. I currently have my largest spread position in twenty
> five
> | > | years. Am I going to have to slap Dick Gephardt around to make sure
> | that
> | > | China gets favored trade status. I understand that the largest
wheat
> | > | growing area in China is currently at 9% of normal measurable
> | > precipitation.
> | > | Any thoughts are welcome.
> | > |
> | > | Take care,
> | > |
> | > | Steve Karnish
> | > | Cedar Creek Trading
> | > | http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> | > | ----- Original Message -----
> | > | From: Walter Lake <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
> | > | To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> | > | Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 6:30 AM
> | > | Subject: KW0K/KW0N
> | > |
> | > |
> | > | > Hi Steve
> | > | >
> | > | > In the KC wheat markets, I know that most of the spread activity
is
> in
> | > | > rolling May positions into July.
> | > |
> | >
> | >
> |
>
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