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R.I.,
I guess you won't be buying a plane ticket to the Equis free seminars? I'll
be sharing my equity approaches with the attendees. Unlike my website,
which is going through a large makeover,
the seminar will teach folks to use an oscillator to get in and "out"...what
a novel concept. Attached is a chart of AMAT using a simple StoRSI that
triggers trades the day after (on the opening) when the indicator hits 20 or
80 (very different than my FREE stock buys posted at my site). 80% of the
Naz components have posted profits since January 1, 1999 using this
approach.
Since this will be publicly disseminated, to strangers at seminars, I will
also supply "selected" individuals (on the MetaStock forum) with the StoRSI
formula and the rules to trade it with. If anyone is interested, you need
to send your request to: cct@xxxxxxxxxxxx (with twenty five words or less
describing "Why I deserve your indicator and rules and what I'm willing to
share in return"). I will not answer publicly posted request and I will not
send the formula out to "wieners" (you know who you are...so, don't even go
there).
Swirling with Toto,
Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: rosewood_island <rosewood_island@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, June 06, 2000 8:14 AM
Subject: Re: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> Steve,
> If you'd like to see another largest down day, just check
> your 5-star buy system.
>
> Last time you posted a bunch of 5-star buys on this thread.
> AMAT,QQQ,NXLK,MSFT,RFMD,SUNW,IMNX.
>
> Within 3 days, we got an Nasdaq 258-point drop, then
> consecutive 5-day drop. Eventually we got a 355-point
> drop.
>
> I think the government should name you the director of
> Hurricane Center at National Weather Service. Your model
> really works for forecasting unusual events.
>
> Regards,
>
> R.I.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 5:22 PM
> Subject: Re: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
>
>
> > Guy,
> >
> > I will be conducting four, three hour seminars for Equis during the last
> two
> > weeks in June. Unless something changes, I'll be in Seattle on the
17th,
> > Vancouver on the 18th, San Jose on the 24th and the City on the 25th.
> Equis
> > is doing LaLa on the 24th and Orange County on the 25th, but they will
be
> > conducted by Bob Frassanito. Bob's a good dude (ex
> IBMer...retired...living
> > in New Mexico). Besides the IBM conection with you, he knows Johnny B
and
> > Bollinger even spoke at his users group (nice trick!). Stop by and see
> him.
> > This should be big fun. I assume 99% of the audience will be equity
> > traders, so I'll be breaking down the Nasdaq 100 and each of it's
> > components, for the last eighteen months, and showing how traders can
use
> a
> > simple oscillator to extract a few pesos from these issues. I actually
> > wanted to hand pick my schedule: InSane Diego, New Porsche Beach,
Denver
> &
> > Dallas... oh well, we'll see how this round goes ... maybe in the fall.
> >
> > Wishing for the largest single "downday" ever (until I go long),
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > Cedar Creek Trading
> > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 12:39 PM
> > Subject: RE: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> >
> >
> > > Steve
> > >
> > > Good luck with your trade. As you know, I hate it when we're in
> agreement
> > > on the same day. Something bad usually happens. :)
> > >
> > > If this is your first short since 3/24, we do a lot more trading than
> you
> > > do. You need a system like our's if you want to make it as a broker.
> > Churn
> > > those accounts. :)
> > >
> > > BTW, is your trip set yet?
> > >
> > > Guy
> > >
> > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > > Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> > > Sent: Sunday, June 04, 2000 9:51 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> > >
> > > Guy and list,
> > >
> > > Monday morning we are liquidating the long positions that we have had
> > since
> > > 4/14, 5/11 & 5/24 (@1435, 1405 & 1384. It was a long frustrating time
> > with
> > > healthy profits at times and sickening reversals that made one
question
> > > one's mechanical approach. All's well that ends well. Most reliable
> > > momentum oscillators (StoRSI's, BB Osc, and the CMO's) have traveled
too
> > far
> > > north and triggered sell signals. This will be our first short, in
the
> > the
> > > S&P arena, since 3/24/00.
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > Cedar Creek Trading
> > > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2000 2:23 PM
> > > Subject: RE: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > >
> > >
> > > > Mickey
> > > >
> > > > Yes, you are correct, we do vary the weighting of our six components
> of
> > > our
> > > > SP39 signal depending upon which commodity we are tracking. Certain
> > > > components work better with different commodities. And yes, we do
use
> > > > binary waves. Without going back to our source code (it's been a
> while
> > > > since we've changed these) I think each of our six components is a
> > binary
> > > > wave. Our technique being, once we get a buy signal on that one
> > > indicator,
> > > > we set the binary wave to keep that buy signal in place until we get
a
> > > sell
> > > > signal at which time we reverse it. We refer to this as latching.
> For
> > > > example (I guess this is because we're contrarians) if a certain
> > indicator
> > > > is a buy, then we set the binary wave at -1 (or -2 if it's weighted
> x2,
> > > > or -3 if it carries a weight of x3). Our SP39 signal is the sum
total
> > of
> > > > our six components and can vary from +10 to -10 and we calculate it
> > daily.
> > > > We then transfer the result to an Excel spreadsheet.
> > > >
> > > > In actuality, we maintain 2 different SP39 signals. One we call MS
> and
> > > one
> > > > we call Original (not very creative). The reason for the difference
> is
> > as
> > > > follows: When we first started using MetaStock in the old DOS days,
> we
> > > were
> > > > unable to come up with a way to code our momentum indicators because
> of
> > > > various limitations in MS. I spent about 4 months trying to get it
to
> > > work
> > > > and finally had to develop modified momentum indicators for use in
MS
> > (we
> > > > have 2 momentum indicators, short and long term momentum). We
called
> it
> > > our
> > > > MS SP39 signal. In addition, we still maintained our Original SP39
> (even
> > > > though we really didn't call it that at the time) in Clipper. This
> was
> > a
> > > > little pain because we had to manually enter and maintain our
Clipper
> > > > databases while we were able to automate the MS one using
Downloader.
> > At
> > > > that time, I discovered TAS and reprogrammed our Original SP39 from
> > > Clipper
> > > > into TAS. With the advent of MS v6.5.2, we are now able to do all
of
> > our
> > > > calculations in MS and have discontinues the use of TAS.
> > > >
> > > > We still enter about 25 commodities daily from the WSJ and use
Clipper
> > for
> > > > developmental purposes. All of our Intermediate Term Signals run in
> > > Clipper
> > > > as that's the language my dad uses. He has never really made the
> > > transition
> > > > to Windows, even though we have him on a Win98SE machine. He's been
> > > working
> > > > in a CP/M and DOS world for 26 years and doesn't want to take the
time
> > to
> > > > learn a new language (and I can't say that I blame him at 91 years
> old).
> > > >
> > > > Finally, we don't do much with other commodities other than the S&P
> > > futures
> > > > right now. The S&P futures are working too well, the market is too
> big
> > > and
> > > > the volumes are too great to even spend time with the other
> commodities.
> > > We
> > > > maintain the other commodities out of habit in case we ever have to
go
> > > back
> > > > to trading regular futures again, we'll have all of the data.
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > > >
> > > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > > > Behalf Of Michel Amelinckx
> > > > Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2000 5:37 AM
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: RE: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > > >
> > > > Guy, I want to thank you ONCE AGAIN for your great insight.
> > > >
> > > > >From what I understand, you don't optimise. But you do play with
> > giving
> > > > different weightings to the different indicators that you created,
> right
> > ?
> > > > Like a binary wave.
> > > >
> > > > Greetings, master and THANKS :)
> > > >
> > > > Mickey
> > > >
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Guy Tann
> > > > > Sent: zaterdag 3 juni 2000 8:05
> > > > > To: Metastock User Group
> > > > > Subject: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > List et al,
> > > > >
> > > > > Well that was one heck of a ride! We closed everything out
> > > > > an hour or so
> > > > > before the close and are in cash (equities and futures).
> > > > >
> > > > > As I said, we were waiting for the proper "contrary" and we are
now
> in
> > > > > possession of a real sell signal.
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm not sure what we'll be selling short on Monday. We will
> > > > > be shorting our
> > > > > S&P futures naturally. But we'll need to do some calculations
> > > > > to determine
> > > > > how many to short in keeping with our money management
> > > > > philosophy. I'm not
> > > > > sure if we'll be shorting stocks or just buying some OEX Put
> > > > > options and/or
> > > > > our normal QQQ, DIA and SPY indices. I don't think we'll be
> > > > > quite as heavy
> > > > > on the short side.
> > > > >
> > > > > The problem being a contrarian is we trade opposite everybody
> > > > > else and we
> > > > > have to dance with the lady that brung us. That means, we trade
all
> > > > > signals, no matter how nervous we feel. We know we are only
> > > > > going to be
> > > > > right 4 out of every 5 trades, on average, and we never know
> > > > > if the next one
> > > > > is IT.
> > > > >
> > > > > Now the following is to encourage those of you who have
> > > > > fairly good signals
> > > > > (like buys and/or sell signals) to make sure you take a good
> > > > > look at the
> > > > > ValueLine 1-1 stocks that we've been trading. Here are the
> > > > > actual results
> > > > > with my brother's granddaughter's account being an absolutely
> > > > > great example
> > > > > since he can't do futures in it or sell short.
> > > > >
> > > > > [OFF TOPIC] [NOT MEANT FOR BUSINESS, TROLLING or WHATEVER] MY
> > > > > DISCLAIMER!
> > > > >
> > > > > As an aside, I have some trade summary data to report.
> > > > > Before I do, I'd
> > > > > like to state officially that we're NOT looking to sell
> > > > > anything, we have NO
> > > > > web site, no newsletter, and are not registered CTAs. Even
> > > > > if we proceed
> > > > > with a newsletter sometime in the future, that's months away
> > > > > and our system
> > > > > might turn to crap by then, so everybody should consider himself
(or
> > > > > herself, to be PC) warned. We're just private traders. Now that
> I've
> > > > > reiterated the disclaimer, a little stronger, here are some
> > > > > of our UNAUDITED
> > > > > results.
> > > > >
> > > > > First, my brother started trading equities, in addition to
> > > > > futures last
> > > > > June. We now have a complete 12 months of data in his
> > > > > accounts. He was
> > > > > profitable 11 out of the 12 months. Even with a couple of our
> famous
> > > > > screw-ups (like that big loss last November) he finished the
> > > > > year up 100%
> > > > > (he made a 100% return on capital). I don't want to give the
> numbers
> > > > > because that's his business, but we're talking mid six
> > > > > figures. Of course,
> > > > > the account is sort of back at it's original size because he
> > > > > had to pay
> > > > > Uncle Sam his due and he bought a lot for his retirement home
> > > > > and another
> > > > > country club membership to go with that new lot. Still, all in
all
> a
> > > > > successful year.
> > > > >
> > > > > Second, on a lighter note, he opened up a Crumy Trust (I
> > > > > think that's a
> > > > > college trust and I'm not sure how you spell it) for his
> > > > > granddaughter on
> > > > > November 15,1999. He funded it with $10,000. Now, he is not
> > > > > allowed to go
> > > > > short in this account, so he's limited to only trading our
> > > > > buy signals. He
> > > > > closed out her positions today and put her in cash (money market
> fund
> > > > > actually). Her account balance, as of the close of trading today,
> is
> > > > > $24,231.84. Again, this is unaudited, but since we're not
> > > > > trying to sell
> > > > > anybody anything, too bad. His trading technique for Lucy's
> > > > > account is as
> > > > > follows. When we get a buy signal, he mentally goes down the
> > > > > list of the
> > > > > top 10 to 15 stocks we plan on trading in our own accounts (from
the
> > > > > ValueLine 1-1 selection process I laid out earlier). He
> > > > > selects the top 3
> > > > > or 4 and buys these. I think she held LSI, AMD and one other
> > > > > one. Not too
> > > > > bad for a young lady who just turned 1. :) His target is $40,000
by
> > > > > November. I only wish him well, because that means I'll be
> > > > > on the same
> > > > > merry-go-round.
> > > > >
> > > > > On a final note, he opened up a $5,000 account for our sister also
> on
> > > > > November 15, 1999. Now she's always been the free spirit in
> > > > > the family and
> > > > > just started to mature in her mid 50s. She loved the
> > > > > Grateful Dead, has a
> > > > > couple of giant dogs (Newfoundland or however you spell those
> > > > > monsters) a
> > > > > new yellow VW Beatle and a new house that I'm sure her cats
> > > > > and dogs have
> > > > > already trashed. She lived through the 60s and 70s and can't
> > > > > remember much,
> > > > > if anything of it. :) I on the other hand already had two
> > > > > kids in the 60s
> > > > > so I wasn't able to not remember anything until after the
> > > > > divorce in the
> > > > > 70s. Anyway, enough reminiscing, her account balance, as of
> > > > > the close of
> > > > > trading today is approximately $10,000 (I didn't ask my
> > > > > brother for the
> > > > > exact number and he might have lied to me anyway :)).
> > > > >
> > > > > I guess what I'm trying to say, is that working with the ValueLine
> > > > > recommendations has a limited track record with us and has
> > > > > come through with
> > > > > flying colors, and has even compensated for those times we screwed
> up.
> > > > >
> > > > > [The RANTINGS of an OLD F**T]
> > > > >
> > > > > Happy trading to all. I'm in a great mood after this week,
> > > > > so I thought I'd
> > > > > share some additional thoughts with the list and try to
> > > > > encourage everyone
> > > > > to keep working to find that Holy Grail. A little proviso is
> > > > > to try to
> > > > > experiment with various, different approaches and not use
> > > > > anybody's tools.
> > > > > Develop your own. It's hard but can be done. As I've said
> > > > > several times,
> > > > > the only indicator we use in MetaStock that came with the
> > > > > software is the
> > > > > moving average. We use it on our own indicators or within our own
> > > > > indicators. Everything else in the 14 levels of calculations
> > > > > uses addition,
> > > > > subtraction, division and multiplication and that's it. You
> > > > > don't need to
> > > > > be a genius. You do need to develop a "feel" for numbers and
> > > > > the market.
> > > > > We don't use anything else! Nothing fancy. No advanced
> > > > > math, even though
> > > > > all of us have degrees in things like statistical economics,
> > > > > engineering
> > > > > math, math and statistics, etc. There's no easy way to do
> > > > > this. You need
> > > > > to spend the time and effort and grind it out. I firmly
> > > > > believe that the
> > > > > first year or two should be done without a computer, but
> > > > > that's my opinion
> > > > > and I've been working with computers for over 40 years now,
> > > > > and that you
> > > > > should paper trade a system at first. Secondly, don't use
> > > > > optimization
> > > > > tools. It either works or it doesn't and it works with
> > > > > numbers that make
> > > > > sense, not two out of a basket of 300,000. We don't
> > > > > optimize! We tried it
> > > > > and found that it cost us too much money. It's highly
> > > > > overrated, in our
> > > > > opinion, but we did spend a couple of years playing with
> > > > > MetaStock doing it.
> > > > > We do back test any new indicators we develop. We're firm
> > > > > believers in back
> > > > > testing, however we feel the more recent results are more
> > > > > important that how
> > > > > the indicator worked 5 years ago. Took us a while to understand
> that
> > > > > because of the dynamics of the market, you need to constantly
> > > > > monitor your
> > > > > indicators, etc. Actually, we constantly monitor our trading
> > > > > rules, but
> > > > > that's another rant.
> > > > >
> > > > > I hope everyone has a great weekend.
> > > > >
> > > > > Guy
> > > > >
> > > > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all
worthwhile!
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
>
>
> __________________________________________________
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>
>
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