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Steve,
If you'd like to see another largest down day, just check
your 5-star buy system.
Last time you posted a bunch of 5-star buys on this thread.
AMAT,QQQ,NXLK,MSFT,RFMD,SUNW,IMNX.
Within 3 days, we got an Nasdaq 258-point drop, then
consecutive 5-day drop. Eventually we got a 355-point
drop.
I think the government should name you the director of
Hurricane Center at National Weather Service. Your model
really works for forecasting unusual events.
Regards,
R.I.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 5:22 PM
Subject: Re: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> Guy,
>
> I will be conducting four, three hour seminars for Equis during the last
two
> weeks in June. Unless something changes, I'll be in Seattle on the 17th,
> Vancouver on the 18th, San Jose on the 24th and the City on the 25th.
Equis
> is doing LaLa on the 24th and Orange County on the 25th, but they will be
> conducted by Bob Frassanito. Bob's a good dude (ex
IBMer...retired...living
> in New Mexico). Besides the IBM conection with you, he knows Johnny B and
> Bollinger even spoke at his users group (nice trick!). Stop by and see
him.
> This should be big fun. I assume 99% of the audience will be equity
> traders, so I'll be breaking down the Nasdaq 100 and each of it's
> components, for the last eighteen months, and showing how traders can use
a
> simple oscillator to extract a few pesos from these issues. I actually
> wanted to hand pick my schedule: InSane Diego, New Porsche Beach, Denver
&
> Dallas... oh well, we'll see how this round goes ... maybe in the fall.
>
> Wishing for the largest single "downday" ever (until I go long),
>
> Steve Karnish
> Cedar Creek Trading
> http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, June 05, 2000 12:39 PM
> Subject: RE: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
>
>
> > Steve
> >
> > Good luck with your trade. As you know, I hate it when we're in
agreement
> > on the same day. Something bad usually happens. :)
> >
> > If this is your first short since 3/24, we do a lot more trading than
you
> > do. You need a system like our's if you want to make it as a broker.
> Churn
> > those accounts. :)
> >
> > BTW, is your trip set yet?
> >
> > Guy
> >
> > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> > Sent: Sunday, June 04, 2000 9:51 PM
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Momentum Oscillator sell signals
> >
> > Guy and list,
> >
> > Monday morning we are liquidating the long positions that we have had
> since
> > 4/14, 5/11 & 5/24 (@1435, 1405 & 1384. It was a long frustrating time
> with
> > healthy profits at times and sickening reversals that made one question
> > one's mechanical approach. All's well that ends well. Most reliable
> > momentum oscillators (StoRSI's, BB Osc, and the CMO's) have traveled too
> far
> > north and triggered sell signals. This will be our first short, in the
> the
> > S&P arena, since 3/24/00.
> >
> > Steve Karnish
> > Cedar Creek Trading
> > http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2000 2:23 PM
> > Subject: RE: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> >
> >
> > > Mickey
> > >
> > > Yes, you are correct, we do vary the weighting of our six components
of
> > our
> > > SP39 signal depending upon which commodity we are tracking. Certain
> > > components work better with different commodities. And yes, we do use
> > > binary waves. Without going back to our source code (it's been a
while
> > > since we've changed these) I think each of our six components is a
> binary
> > > wave. Our technique being, once we get a buy signal on that one
> > indicator,
> > > we set the binary wave to keep that buy signal in place until we get a
> > sell
> > > signal at which time we reverse it. We refer to this as latching.
For
> > > example (I guess this is because we're contrarians) if a certain
> indicator
> > > is a buy, then we set the binary wave at -1 (or -2 if it's weighted
x2,
> > > or -3 if it carries a weight of x3). Our SP39 signal is the sum total
> of
> > > our six components and can vary from +10 to -10 and we calculate it
> daily.
> > > We then transfer the result to an Excel spreadsheet.
> > >
> > > In actuality, we maintain 2 different SP39 signals. One we call MS
and
> > one
> > > we call Original (not very creative). The reason for the difference
is
> as
> > > follows: When we first started using MetaStock in the old DOS days,
we
> > were
> > > unable to come up with a way to code our momentum indicators because
of
> > > various limitations in MS. I spent about 4 months trying to get it to
> > work
> > > and finally had to develop modified momentum indicators for use in MS
> (we
> > > have 2 momentum indicators, short and long term momentum). We called
it
> > our
> > > MS SP39 signal. In addition, we still maintained our Original SP39
(even
> > > though we really didn't call it that at the time) in Clipper. This
was
> a
> > > little pain because we had to manually enter and maintain our Clipper
> > > databases while we were able to automate the MS one using Downloader.
> At
> > > that time, I discovered TAS and reprogrammed our Original SP39 from
> > Clipper
> > > into TAS. With the advent of MS v6.5.2, we are now able to do all of
> our
> > > calculations in MS and have discontinues the use of TAS.
> > >
> > > We still enter about 25 commodities daily from the WSJ and use Clipper
> for
> > > developmental purposes. All of our Intermediate Term Signals run in
> > Clipper
> > > as that's the language my dad uses. He has never really made the
> > transition
> > > to Windows, even though we have him on a Win98SE machine. He's been
> > working
> > > in a CP/M and DOS world for 26 years and doesn't want to take the time
> to
> > > learn a new language (and I can't say that I blame him at 91 years
old).
> > >
> > > Finally, we don't do much with other commodities other than the S&P
> > futures
> > > right now. The S&P futures are working too well, the market is too
big
> > and
> > > the volumes are too great to even spend time with the other
commodities.
> > We
> > > maintain the other commodities out of habit in case we ever have to go
> > back
> > > to trading regular futures again, we'll have all of the data.
> > >
> > > Guy
> > >
> > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > > Behalf Of Michel Amelinckx
> > > Sent: Saturday, June 03, 2000 5:37 AM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > >
> > > Guy, I want to thank you ONCE AGAIN for your great insight.
> > >
> > > >From what I understand, you don't optimise. But you do play with
> giving
> > > different weightings to the different indicators that you created,
right
> ?
> > > Like a binary wave.
> > >
> > > Greetings, master and THANKS :)
> > >
> > > Mickey
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Guy Tann
> > > > Sent: zaterdag 3 juni 2000 8:05
> > > > To: Metastock User Group
> > > > Subject: Time to Sell and [OT] as well
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > List et al,
> > > >
> > > > Well that was one heck of a ride! We closed everything out
> > > > an hour or so
> > > > before the close and are in cash (equities and futures).
> > > >
> > > > As I said, we were waiting for the proper "contrary" and we are now
in
> > > > possession of a real sell signal.
> > > >
> > > > I'm not sure what we'll be selling short on Monday. We will
> > > > be shorting our
> > > > S&P futures naturally. But we'll need to do some calculations
> > > > to determine
> > > > how many to short in keeping with our money management
> > > > philosophy. I'm not
> > > > sure if we'll be shorting stocks or just buying some OEX Put
> > > > options and/or
> > > > our normal QQQ, DIA and SPY indices. I don't think we'll be
> > > > quite as heavy
> > > > on the short side.
> > > >
> > > > The problem being a contrarian is we trade opposite everybody
> > > > else and we
> > > > have to dance with the lady that brung us. That means, we trade all
> > > > signals, no matter how nervous we feel. We know we are only
> > > > going to be
> > > > right 4 out of every 5 trades, on average, and we never know
> > > > if the next one
> > > > is IT.
> > > >
> > > > Now the following is to encourage those of you who have
> > > > fairly good signals
> > > > (like buys and/or sell signals) to make sure you take a good
> > > > look at the
> > > > ValueLine 1-1 stocks that we've been trading. Here are the
> > > > actual results
> > > > with my brother's granddaughter's account being an absolutely
> > > > great example
> > > > since he can't do futures in it or sell short.
> > > >
> > > > [OFF TOPIC] [NOT MEANT FOR BUSINESS, TROLLING or WHATEVER] MY
> > > > DISCLAIMER!
> > > >
> > > > As an aside, I have some trade summary data to report.
> > > > Before I do, I'd
> > > > like to state officially that we're NOT looking to sell
> > > > anything, we have NO
> > > > web site, no newsletter, and are not registered CTAs. Even
> > > > if we proceed
> > > > with a newsletter sometime in the future, that's months away
> > > > and our system
> > > > might turn to crap by then, so everybody should consider himself (or
> > > > herself, to be PC) warned. We're just private traders. Now that
I've
> > > > reiterated the disclaimer, a little stronger, here are some
> > > > of our UNAUDITED
> > > > results.
> > > >
> > > > First, my brother started trading equities, in addition to
> > > > futures last
> > > > June. We now have a complete 12 months of data in his
> > > > accounts. He was
> > > > profitable 11 out of the 12 months. Even with a couple of our
famous
> > > > screw-ups (like that big loss last November) he finished the
> > > > year up 100%
> > > > (he made a 100% return on capital). I don't want to give the
numbers
> > > > because that's his business, but we're talking mid six
> > > > figures. Of course,
> > > > the account is sort of back at it's original size because he
> > > > had to pay
> > > > Uncle Sam his due and he bought a lot for his retirement home
> > > > and another
> > > > country club membership to go with that new lot. Still, all in all
a
> > > > successful year.
> > > >
> > > > Second, on a lighter note, he opened up a Crumy Trust (I
> > > > think that's a
> > > > college trust and I'm not sure how you spell it) for his
> > > > granddaughter on
> > > > November 15,1999. He funded it with $10,000. Now, he is not
> > > > allowed to go
> > > > short in this account, so he's limited to only trading our
> > > > buy signals. He
> > > > closed out her positions today and put her in cash (money market
fund
> > > > actually). Her account balance, as of the close of trading today,
is
> > > > $24,231.84. Again, this is unaudited, but since we're not
> > > > trying to sell
> > > > anybody anything, too bad. His trading technique for Lucy's
> > > > account is as
> > > > follows. When we get a buy signal, he mentally goes down the
> > > > list of the
> > > > top 10 to 15 stocks we plan on trading in our own accounts (from the
> > > > ValueLine 1-1 selection process I laid out earlier). He
> > > > selects the top 3
> > > > or 4 and buys these. I think she held LSI, AMD and one other
> > > > one. Not too
> > > > bad for a young lady who just turned 1. :) His target is $40,000 by
> > > > November. I only wish him well, because that means I'll be
> > > > on the same
> > > > merry-go-round.
> > > >
> > > > On a final note, he opened up a $5,000 account for our sister also
on
> > > > November 15, 1999. Now she's always been the free spirit in
> > > > the family and
> > > > just started to mature in her mid 50s. She loved the
> > > > Grateful Dead, has a
> > > > couple of giant dogs (Newfoundland or however you spell those
> > > > monsters) a
> > > > new yellow VW Beatle and a new house that I'm sure her cats
> > > > and dogs have
> > > > already trashed. She lived through the 60s and 70s and can't
> > > > remember much,
> > > > if anything of it. :) I on the other hand already had two
> > > > kids in the 60s
> > > > so I wasn't able to not remember anything until after the
> > > > divorce in the
> > > > 70s. Anyway, enough reminiscing, her account balance, as of
> > > > the close of
> > > > trading today is approximately $10,000 (I didn't ask my
> > > > brother for the
> > > > exact number and he might have lied to me anyway :)).
> > > >
> > > > I guess what I'm trying to say, is that working with the ValueLine
> > > > recommendations has a limited track record with us and has
> > > > come through with
> > > > flying colors, and has even compensated for those times we screwed
up.
> > > >
> > > > [The RANTINGS of an OLD F**T]
> > > >
> > > > Happy trading to all. I'm in a great mood after this week,
> > > > so I thought I'd
> > > > share some additional thoughts with the list and try to
> > > > encourage everyone
> > > > to keep working to find that Holy Grail. A little proviso is
> > > > to try to
> > > > experiment with various, different approaches and not use
> > > > anybody's tools.
> > > > Develop your own. It's hard but can be done. As I've said
> > > > several times,
> > > > the only indicator we use in MetaStock that came with the
> > > > software is the
> > > > moving average. We use it on our own indicators or within our own
> > > > indicators. Everything else in the 14 levels of calculations
> > > > uses addition,
> > > > subtraction, division and multiplication and that's it. You
> > > > don't need to
> > > > be a genius. You do need to develop a "feel" for numbers and
> > > > the market.
> > > > We don't use anything else! Nothing fancy. No advanced
> > > > math, even though
> > > > all of us have degrees in things like statistical economics,
> > > > engineering
> > > > math, math and statistics, etc. There's no easy way to do
> > > > this. You need
> > > > to spend the time and effort and grind it out. I firmly
> > > > believe that the
> > > > first year or two should be done without a computer, but
> > > > that's my opinion
> > > > and I've been working with computers for over 40 years now,
> > > > and that you
> > > > should paper trade a system at first. Secondly, don't use
> > > > optimization
> > > > tools. It either works or it doesn't and it works with
> > > > numbers that make
> > > > sense, not two out of a basket of 300,000. We don't
> > > > optimize! We tried it
> > > > and found that it cost us too much money. It's highly
> > > > overrated, in our
> > > > opinion, but we did spend a couple of years playing with
> > > > MetaStock doing it.
> > > > We do back test any new indicators we develop. We're firm
> > > > believers in back
> > > > testing, however we feel the more recent results are more
> > > > important that how
> > > > the indicator worked 5 years ago. Took us a while to understand
that
> > > > because of the dynamics of the market, you need to constantly
> > > > monitor your
> > > > indicators, etc. Actually, we constantly monitor our trading
> > > > rules, but
> > > > that's another rant.
> > > >
> > > > I hope everyone has a great weekend.
> > > >
> > > > Guy
> > > >
> > > > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
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