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Guy,
You probably said it right and I just misread it, must be getting old
or something <G>. All of the market indicators I follow, with the single
exception of the DJI, are near the top of Horizontal Channels. As I said, I
have a gut feeling that they will break through the top of those channels,
but I certainly don't have any thing to base that gut feeling on. The odds
favor any channel holding which would mean the down turn that your
intermediate term system is predicting. I'll keep a close watch on my
stops.
JimG
----- Original Message -----
From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 1999 5:16 PM
Subject: RE: Weekly Pick
> JimG
>
> I must have mistyped, but the sell signal we got was on our intermediate
> term signal in conjunction with the short term sell signal. This is the
> first, in our system, major sell signal since the 10/1/98 buy signal.
That
> buy signal (10/1/98) returned 431% in 10 months.
>
> These signals are usually of a longer duration that out short term signal.
> Remember, short term for us can be as short as 1 day. <G>
>
> Prior to this long trade, they average about 15 days but have been as
short
> as 4 days. Now to confuse the issue even more is that we have a Short
Term
> Buy Signal effective Friday night or Monday morning. We are staying with
> the short side of the market until we get some confirmation from our ITS.
> Our STSignals have been getting caught in the switches lately, and while
we
> have made money on our last 3 trades, the draw downs have been horrible.
> This last trade, the draw down on the initial position hit almost 100% of
> initial margin, and while we made money, it was hardly worth the anguish.
>
> We think the combined system (using both short term and intermediate term
> signals) will relieve some of the pressure not to mention a bunch of the
> trades and commissions. <G>
>
> For our current position, we're short the Sept. S&P futures at from
1379.75
> to 1382.00.
>
> For the paranoid among us <VBG> there is the possibility that we're seeing
> the development of a bull trap here. New highs in the Dow and the NASDAQ.
> I don't remember if we hit a new high in the S&P???? Play around a little
> and start back up. When people start to buy in, bail. I've got to
believe
> that there's no way those people waiting for October for capital gains are
> ever going to see that money. Who knows? If it were easy, we'd all have
as
> much money as Gates or Buffett.
>
> Regards
>
> Guy
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> On Behalf Of Jim Greening
> Sent: Saturday, August 28, 1999 5:58 PM
> To: Metastock
> Subject: Weekly Pick
>
> All,
> I didn't learn much this week. My portfolio was flat for the week
and
> the DJI is still the only market indicator that has broken out to a new
> high. The bad news was that Guy did get one of his short-term sell
signals
> and I'm always cautious when that happens. However, all of the other
market
> indices I watch are still in the bottom half of Short Term Up Trend
> Channels (STUTC). If the STUTCs hold they will all turn back up and break
> out of the top of their longer term Horizontal Channels (HC). If Guy's
sell
> signal holds for a while without turning, they could fall through the
bottom
> of their STUTCs and retest the bottom of their HCs. Given this lack of
> information, the question is what to do <G>?
> My gut tells me that the market is going to break out and go on up,
but
> my head says to be careful. The first thing I did was to check the stops
on
> all my open positions and tightened them where I could. Then I
compromised
> and looked for a momentum high flyer that had just broken out in the last
> week then pulled back a little. I wanted one with a good buy stop point.
A
> point that gave a good indication that the up trend had resumed but was
> still close enough to the stop for adequate protection. I think I have
> found a relatively new, speculative internet issue that meets that
criteria.
> This week's pick is E-Loan Inc (EELN). It is an on-line mortgage
> broker that offers the opportunity to peruse thousands of mortgage
products
> from more than 70 lenders on its Web site and through partnerships with
such
> companies as Yahoo, MarketWatch.com, and The Motley Fool. E-Loan provides
> mortgage calculators and rate checkers, as well as online applications and
> loan status checks. On 08/23/99, E-LOAN announced plans to acquire
> CarFinance.com in a purchase transaction for 2.88 million shares of
E-LOAN,
> representing a purchase price of approximately $67 million. Several
analyst
> 's liked that move and now rate EELN as a buy.
> See description and chart at
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Highr
> ise/1025/
>
> JimG
>
>
>
>
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