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JimG
I must have mistyped, but the sell signal we got was on our intermediate
term signal in conjunction with the short term sell signal. This is the
first, in our system, major sell signal since the 10/1/98 buy signal. That
buy signal (10/1/98) returned 431% in 10 months.
These signals are usually of a longer duration that out short term signal.
Remember, short term for us can be as short as 1 day. <G>
Prior to this long trade, they average about 15 days but have been as short
as 4 days. Now to confuse the issue even more is that we have a Short Term
Buy Signal effective Friday night or Monday morning. We are staying with
the short side of the market until we get some confirmation from our ITS.
Our STSignals have been getting caught in the switches lately, and while we
have made money on our last 3 trades, the draw downs have been horrible.
This last trade, the draw down on the initial position hit almost 100% of
initial margin, and while we made money, it was hardly worth the anguish.
We think the combined system (using both short term and intermediate term
signals) will relieve some of the pressure not to mention a bunch of the
trades and commissions. <G>
For our current position, we're short the Sept. S&P futures at from 1379.75
to 1382.00.
For the paranoid among us <VBG> there is the possibility that we're seeing
the development of a bull trap here. New highs in the Dow and the NASDAQ.
I don't remember if we hit a new high in the S&P???? Play around a little
and start back up. When people start to buy in, bail. I've got to believe
that there's no way those people waiting for October for capital gains are
ever going to see that money. Who knows? If it were easy, we'd all have as
much money as Gates or Buffett.
Regards
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Jim Greening
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 1999 5:58 PM
To: Metastock
Subject: Weekly Pick
All,
I didn't learn much this week. My portfolio was flat for the week and
the DJI is still the only market indicator that has broken out to a new
high. The bad news was that Guy did get one of his short-term sell signals
and I'm always cautious when that happens. However, all of the other market
indices I watch are still in the bottom half of Short Term Up Trend
Channels (STUTC). If the STUTCs hold they will all turn back up and break
out of the top of their longer term Horizontal Channels (HC). If Guy's sell
signal holds for a while without turning, they could fall through the bottom
of their STUTCs and retest the bottom of their HCs. Given this lack of
information, the question is what to do <G>?
My gut tells me that the market is going to break out and go on up, but
my head says to be careful. The first thing I did was to check the stops on
all my open positions and tightened them where I could. Then I compromised
and looked for a momentum high flyer that had just broken out in the last
week then pulled back a little. I wanted one with a good buy stop point. A
point that gave a good indication that the up trend had resumed but was
still close enough to the stop for adequate protection. I think I have
found a relatively new, speculative internet issue that meets that criteria.
This week's pick is E-Loan Inc (EELN). It is an on-line mortgage
broker that offers the opportunity to peruse thousands of mortgage products
from more than 70 lenders on its Web site and through partnerships with such
companies as Yahoo, MarketWatch.com, and The Motley Fool. E-Loan provides
mortgage calculators and rate checkers, as well as online applications and
loan status checks. On 08/23/99, E-LOAN announced plans to acquire
CarFinance.com in a purchase transaction for 2.88 million shares of E-LOAN,
representing a purchase price of approximately $67 million. Several analyst
's liked that move and now rate EELN as a buy.
See description and chart at http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Highr
ise/1025/
JimG
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