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Hey Steve--
Just wanted to say thanks for this post and comments regarding mechanical
trading systems and their accompanying indicators. Have spent a good deal of
time in this area myself, and would welcome some dialogue in the coming weeks
in two distinct areas of indicators. I know Adam has spent a good deal of
time on this area too. The first one is an indicator which does a superior
job of indicating the trend of higher degree. The other would be an indicator
that helps predict congestion early in its development, and then again early as
this congestion is close to a break out. I'm never going to be too far away
from pattern recognition in my own version of this mechanical trading system,
so I will always see these things as supplemental, but I have a feeling from
viewing your posts over some weeks that you've probably got this narrowed down
in your own mind quite a bit farther than I.
Mark Scheier
Steve Karnish wrote:
> Adam and Claud,
>
> Wheat's bearish engulfing pattern today signals a test of support is the
> cards. I blew all my December 300 calls on the opening and almost fell
> over when the floor reported fills at 22 cents. My clients are sending me
> candy and kuggerands. For my spec accounts, I went short in the September
> contract, on the opening, at 284.00 (purely a mechanical holy grail
> position). I know, I'm a real dangerous guy: I've always averaged up and
> down (adding to losing positions...what a sinner) and I'm always in the
> market (and have been 25 years) either long or short.
>
> I've worked at mechanical systems since 1975. At night, we used to sneak
> into a company in Ann Arbor, MI and "borrow" some IBM 360 time. The most
> important thing I can offer anyone concerning system development is that if
> you rely on the historical data to define your parameters, you're screwed.
> I have structured some wonderful systems that show incredible results for
> the past year and "pseudo robustness" for the past 3-5 years. I repeat:
> designing systems based on historical data best fitting is a sure trip to
> the poor house. A successful approach must be invented "outside the box".
> There is no perfect oscillator, but many are very good. I've always
> customized mine. I insert fib number in the formula and monitor about ten
> of them. The one attached to this chart is nothing special (but, it's
> super secret and can be purchased for $2,995 plus handling). The brackets
> are a variation of what you programmed Adam. Combined they make up a very
> solid approach that has extracted a hundred plus pennies from wheat this
> year. It does better in a host of other markets, but that's not the point.
>
> I've been preaching sunspots, El Nino, La Nina, and drought for six months
> and I'm a big bull when it comes to the grains. Sometimes, it's real hard
> to go short...especially if you can read or watch television. The quicker
> we move into the low 250's and I get long again...the better.
> Adam, again, thanks for your contribution to my systematic approach. Your
> unselfish programming efforts affect many people.
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> > From: Von Hef <VonHef@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: MetaStock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: Wheat........
> > Date: Monday, August 02, 1999 7:09 PM
> >
> > Look at wheat go!
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> Name: WheatHolyGrail4.gif
> WheatHolyGrail4.gif Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> Encoding: base64
> Description: WheatHolyGrail4 (GIF Image)
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