|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3401" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Mark,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Great post! Actually looking at Wheat
itself (see attached chart) I would say it is premature (on my
part)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> to claim a</FONT><FONT size=2> great bull has
started (although my weekly trend has turned up) for the following
reasons:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>1. Wheat has been in a long term channel since Sep-Oct of last
year.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>2. I will wait for a confirmation of breaking the 305-308
resistance range.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>3. The price has hit resistance of the center tine of the
fork, if the price falls back down, I will look for</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> support around the lower tine before going
back up. If the lower support fails then the up trend is invalid.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> For these reasons if I was analyzing wheat itself....I
wouldn't be that excited, but what added to my</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>wheat (and other markets) enthusiasm is the fact that the CRB
index has broken above its resistance</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>and could be breaking away from a "Double Bottom". Of course
If the CRB falls back to or below this</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>so called double bottom, I will wonder how I could have ever
thought in such a way <grin>. I do like the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>way you said:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT
size=2>
"to let the market tell me which way it wants"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This is a GREAT attitude and I can see you position yourself
wisely in that regard......I hope to learn</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>more from you in this manner.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Later,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
Adam</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><IMG align=baseline alt="" border=0 hspace=0
src="cid:005201bedfb0$d3ccb900$d4d1fed0@xxxxxxxxxx";></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>----- Original Message ----- </FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>From: Valhalla Futures <<A
href="mailto:scheier@xxxxxxxxx";>scheier@xxxxxxxxx</A>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To: <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Sent: Thursday, August 05, 1999 10:44 AM</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Subject: Re: Wheat........</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT size=2>> Hey Adam, thought I'd throw in a few cents
worth on this one too, FWIW.<BR>> Understand your thinking on the grains,
pretty good argument that an impulse<BR>> move might have gotten started
here, too bad all the weather scare might be<BR>> clouding our
judgement. One thing of interest that has me shorting wheat
at<BR>> yesterday's close and today just after open is the current chart
pattern.<BR>> DiNapoli calls in Railroad Tracks in the Country.
If you saw how it topped<BR>> Silver last May, Sugar last June, and Rice two
days ago, you'll recognize the<BR>> power of the directional change is
suggests. To counter this thinking, and get<BR>> right again with
the trend if in fact it is the beginning of a runnaway bull,<BR>> I've
buy-stopped the Dec Corn high signal-reversal of two days ago. And
I've<BR>> got a tight stop on my wheat short on the assumption that it either
is this<BR>> DiNapoli pattern or it is not, and doesn't need a big stop
thereby. In this<BR>> fashion I'm positioned, I hope, to let the
market tell me which way it wants,<BR>> and not my forecasts, nor even the
weatherman's forecasts. I don't know about<BR>> his track record,
but strickly speaking for myself, my track record is perfect:<BR>> I've never
actually been right. ....but I do pretty good in the
markets<BR>> anyway. <g> Good luck with your
decisions.<BR>> <BR>> Mark S.<BR>> <BR>> Von Hef wrote:<BR>>
<BR>> > Steve and Claud,<BR>> ><BR>> > I also
appreciate the contributions you guys make to the list.<BR>> > I guess I
should learn to exercise more patience like you Claud,<BR>> > but
inevitably I find myself in and out with the momentum indicators<BR>> > in
the direction of the trend. Perhaps if I can learn to trust a system<BR>>
> such as Steve's, I can feel a little more confident going against
the<BR>> > trend. I have also been watching wheat for weeks and at this
stage<BR>> > of speculation, believe this could be a big move to the
upside.<BR>> > Later,<BR>>
>
Adam<BR>> ><BR>> > ----- Original Message -----<BR>> > From:
Claud Baruch <<A
href="mailto:ClaudB@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>ClaudB@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>> > To:
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>>
> Sent: Wednesday, August 04, 1999 5:29 PM<BR>> > Subject: Re:
Wheat........<BR>> ><BR>> > > Steve,<BR>> > ><BR>>
> > I waited many months for what's happening now in wheat. I'm not an in
and<BR>> > out<BR>> > > trader<BR>> > > but exercise
patience to initiate positions. (long or short). Happy to see<BR>> >
the<BR>> > > money<BR>> > > you made with the calls. I have
quite a few myself and while I too,<BR>> > thought<BR>> > >
Tuesday's<BR>> > > action was a near term top, I'll sit it out through
the correction. I<BR>> > think<BR>> > > there's much<BR>> >
> more coming.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > I've had the wheat chart
posted at my little website for quite a while now<BR>> > and<BR>> >
> things<BR>> > > seem to be falling (rising) into place.<BR>>
> ><BR>> > > Thanks for your comments.<BR>> > ><BR>>
> > Claud<BR>> > ><BR>> > > Steve Karnish wrote:<BR>>
> ><BR>> > > > Adam and Claud,<BR>> > > ><BR>>
> > ><BR>> > ><BR>> > > --<BR>> > > <A
href="http://pw1.netcom.com/~claudb/";>http://pw1.netcom.com/~claudb/</A><BR>>
> ><BR>> > ><BR>> </FONT></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\snap114.gif"
|