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<P>With all due respect, Ton, you are confusing the mathematics with their
application.</P>
<P>Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematical genius in his time. His work is simply
geometry; nothing more, nothing less. To my knowledge, he never claimed to have
discovered why markets behave the way they do. If some people have chosen to
couch their own snake-oil products in the mystery of "mathematics," blame the
snake-oil salesman. To deride the mathematician would be like blaming Mandelbrot
for system vendors that claim to have harnessed the Chaos Theory in their
products.</P>
<P>The Fibonacci sequence is not numerology nor fantasy, and people might only
consider it mysterious because they have not taken the time to understand it.
The mathematics are actually intriguing, and many have applied Fibonacci’s work
to architecture to design more aesthetically pleasing structures, and to
photography to achieve more balanced images, to name just two. Others have
discovered many instances of Fibonacci’s Golden Ratio in nature, and still
others believe the mathematics form a fundamental basis for many other
theories.</P>
<P>Whether it has application in the markets, I will leave to smarter people
than I. Nevertheless, I would encourage everyone to learn more about Fibonacci
and his work, if for no other reason than to broaden their mind. Now, if I
can just get my kids to stop groaning whenever I start my Fibonacci lecture.</P>
<P>Regards.</P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
A.J. Maas </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Linda Swope</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Metastock-List</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> May 16, 1999 15:01</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: re:gann</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>You realy want to know this?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Uhh, well you will have to read up on this GANN or Fibonaccy guy to get
the drift of their</DIV>
<DIV>writings.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The items you highlighted are mainly my critisism to those who want
others to believe</DIV>
<DIV>that a few fantasies/theories originating from some
doubtfull ancient history do also</DIV>
<DIV>apply nowadays, on humans or on humans in the financial
(stock-) markets.</DIV>
<DIV>Whatever the geek(Fibonaccy) or the GANN-tastic were on about is not
clear to me,</DIV>
<DIV>except that they were gifted with a lot of fantasy and had a lot of time
to spare.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>To start with Fibionaccy, this guy has lived somewhere back in the 12th
century(forgive</DIV>
<DIV>me if it is the wrong century, as I do not keep track of it).</DIV>
<DIV>The guy had come up with a number-sequence-theory(or fantasy) that he has
found to</DIV>
<DIV>be applicable for repetative mathematical tasks, and that was also
taking place in</DIV>
<DIV>those days. Whatever went on in those days, I do not know, i.e. I was not
there and</DIV>
<DIV>I wasn't tought on it at school. Besides, whatever mathematics has to do
with human</DIV>
<DIV>behaviour, tho, I do not know. What I do know, is that the 2 should not
get mixed up.</DIV>
<DIV>Also, the sequence has not done anything for or in this world. It is much
like other</DIV>
<DIV>(historical) believes and religions, lot of talk no deeds.</DIV>
<DIV>Having also been an engineer in large buidings, houses, technical
installations and</DIV>
<DIV>some internal architectures, you can be most certain that I have never
been able to</DIV>
<DIV>use this sequencing in the trade(s), and I would not recommend you or
anyone to build</DIV>
<DIV>your house's fundament and internal structure on it either!!!!!, eg
see also the</DIV>
<DIV>examples given below.</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>The decimal countings, eg 10, 20, 30, 40, 50......and their halves
5,15,25,35........came</DIV>
<DIV>into the world after the Golden 17th century and have served mankind for
the better.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV>Let's use the Fibonaccy sequence in a few examples (human behavior &
resistance):</DIV>
<DIV>1. Buy a car and start hitting the road. Do you slowdown at certain
milages because that is</DIV>
<DIV> your behaviour or do you do so because it is
common sence not to speed (or tickets</DIV>
<DIV> will be flying in) or that there is a great wall ahead
of you? When will you reverse(slow-down)?</DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks,
eg thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>2. Buy a computer and check on the time you spend per day on using the
it.</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks,
eg thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>3. Go to a swimming-pool and take a dive in the water. When will you
slow-down?</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks,
eg thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>4. In your memory go back to your school-days. In the classes did
you find resitance?</DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks,
eg thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>5. Go to work each day. On what days do you find resitance?</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks,
eg thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>However, many financial educating books (yes you will not believe it, but
those on T.A.</DIV>
<DIV>as well) assume that the guy has also found this sequence to be true on
human behaviour</DIV>
<DIV>(???? in those days, without computers being able to check on
it ?), and as such and in</DIV>
<DIV>writing on and supposibly teaching you, the human, the behaviour in
the financial markets</DIV>
<DIV>while reading the books) these books do find this sequence "automaticaly"
and to be</DIV>
<DIV>applicable in the human behaviour (in general as well as in human
behaviour) on the</DIV>
<DIV>stock markets or on the financial markets. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Many studies to this effect, have proven these books naturaly to be
wrong, actualy litterly to</DIV>
<DIV>be just way-off (hoaxes).</DIV>
<DIV>The Uni of Amsterdam have done a study into repetative retracements and
their levels, taken</DIV>
<DIV>form previously made highs and lows. The outcome to this was that, if
there is a sequence</DIV>
<DIV>(or any cycles) to this effect present in the financial markets, these to
be the regular decimals</DIV>
<DIV>5,10,15,20,25,30,40,50,60,70,75,80,100 percentage retracements, where
also the dividing</DIV>
<DIV>1/3, 2/3, 3/3 and the 1/4, 2/4, 3/4, 4/4 were of the most
frequent re-appearing nature as well,</DIV>
<DIV>and that pure rounded figures, eg $50, $100, $150, $200, $250 or
1000, 2000, 2500, 3000</DIV>
<DIV>etc. etc. were truely human price(points) barriers as well.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Other studies have also made clear that a lot of mechanical
system-traders have adopted</DIV>
<DIV>the Fibonaccy-ranges in their trading-systems, eg the computorised
mechanical trading-systems.</DIV>
<DIV>These ranges levels are then also naturaly the levels in between the
decimal numbers ranges</DIV>
<DIV>given above, and will also, naturaly (depending on the state of the
market) fluctuate from</DIV>
<DIV>time to time, and from trader to trader. As these ranges are also
decimal, adopting it in their</DIV>
<DIV>computorised system-trading is quite natural, as lines for their
targets (buy or sell) must be</DIV>
<DIV>drawn somewhere (i.e. statistical lines).</DIV>
<DIV>The most effective though, for retracements, where the latter mentioned
market divisors</DIV>
<DIV>1/3, 2/3, 1/4 , 2/4. From studies made to their origin, they have been
also used by the same</DIV>
<DIV>17-centuries trailers' Captains sailing the world to agrree on
arrival of their cargos.</DIV>
<DIV>Actualy, they would give the owners a guarantee(option) that their goods
would arrive,</DIV>
<DIV>contrary they would also give the future owners unguranteed the assurance
that their future</DIV>
<DIV>goods would arrive. Naturaly, they have had to do this on certain terms
or other with a feather</DIV>
<DIV>written down financial conditions (1/3, 2/3, 1/4, 2/4) and as such the
first options were born.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>For trading the markets, go with the rest, eg use the traders
tail(s), as they also make or brake</DIV>
<DIV>the market, only in the very short term perspective. But do not come back
crying if it did not</DIV>
<DIV>workout for you, as the markets will tell what will happen next, not the
traders or their Fibonaccy</DIV>
<DIV>retracements.</DIV>
<DIV>For investing on the markets, skip the fact that you've ever heard about
the Fibonaccy goof</DIV>
<DIV>and at the most try to read on up on GANN, but since it involves a lot of
"fantastics" too, then</DIV>
<DIV>do practise it first for real or better omit, it will be your best
way out. There are plenty of other,</DIV>
<DIV>better and true sensible tools to use to enable you to read the markets.
Note that even though,</DIV>
<DIV>you are able to read the market, there is no guarantee that your
readings will be 100% proof.</DIV>
<DIV>In that, the market gives, takes and decides.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Most of these F & G tools are buid-in in MetaStock, but cannot recall
anyone using them</DIV>
<DIV>consistantly AND providing others with clear evidential means (eg to
convince others, enough</DIV>
<DIV>to also start using them).</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Regards,<BR>Ton Maas<BR><A
href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Dismiss the
".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Linda Swope
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxx";
title=ms-irb@xxxxxx>ms-irb@xxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> zondag 7 maart 1999 3:17</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> re:gann</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Hi!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000> Read your post re:gann. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Could you elaborate on:" Much like the fibionacy
theories, they miss out on markets' bindings<BR>too much too make sence, eg
financial, economical, human or otherwise<BR>(let alone common
sence)."?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>And:"But not prior to the<BR>last 2-3 years tho, and therefore there
goes these type of theories,<BR>because of the missing bindings, no
guarantees can be given that<BR>the markets will relive these type of
traders' fantasy theories over and<BR>over again. In that respect, swamps
and quick sand are more of the<BR>same solid grounds to build a house
on."?<BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>I am a new student of the psychology of tech.
analysis. Nothing formal, just trying to add a big chunk of psych to
my trading plan. I'd love to hear more of what you mean
here!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Linda<BR></FONT><FONT color=#000000><BR>Swope's
Mountain Photography<BR><A
href="http://www.swopephoto.com";>http://www.swopephoto.com</A><BR><A
href="mailto:linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Climb the
mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into you as sunshine
into flower; the winds will blow their freshness into you & storms their
energy, & cares will drop off you like autumn leaves. John Muir 1838 -
1914</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT
color=#000000></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon May 17 12:43:01 1999
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From: "VonHef" <VonHef@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <007b01be9e59$e4968420$28d1fed0@xxxxxxx> <37401050.D515E3BE@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: On-topic subject
Date: Mon, 17 May 1999 12:55:05 -0500
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Jan,
Thanks for your answer to this mystery. I had read
the theory about the "Arcs" and was just testing it in
MetaStock.......when I noticed the problem. I think
I'll stick to what I know and leave the "Arc" in the
unused section of MetaStock tools.
Best wishes,
Adam Hefner.
VonHef@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
---------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: J.W.E. Roberts <jan.roberts@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, May 17, 1999 7:49 AM
Subject: Re: On-topic subject
> Hi Adam & All,
> No surprise here: As soon as you start using *Time* as a Fibo-Parameter
> things are bound to go awry using programs like MS. This is because the
> moment you change the proportions of the x- & y-axes all Fib's using
> time as an input are changed too. The only way I know of obviating it is
> to use a fixed proportion between the two - preferably using the Golden
> Cut (or whatever it's called in English).
> I know of at least one - German - Program that specifically addresses
> this problem - being a Fibonacci Analysis only program. As I'm not a fan
> of numerology - except for nice parlour tricks - I don't know it myself
> but I could look up the name etc. for you.
> Kind Regards & Happy Trading,
> Jan Willem Roberts
>
> VonHef wrote:
>
> > If you want a MetaStock question......here it is:
> >
> > What good is the "Fibonacci Arc" in the MetaStock
> > tool bar?!!?
> > I have been studying and experimenting with its usage, but it
> > seems useless and unreliable in MetaStock. As you zoom in/out
> > or as the chart rescales, the price will literally jump around in
> > relation to the Arc! Anyone else using this?
> >
> > Best wishes,
> > Adam Hefner.
> > VonHef@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > ---------------------------------------
>
>
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