|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=text/html;charset=iso-8859-1 http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3401" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>You realy want to know this?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Uhh, well you will have to read up on this GANN or Fibonaccy guy to get the
drift of their</DIV>
<DIV>writings.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The items you highlighted are mainly my critisism to those who want others
to believe</DIV>
<DIV>that a few fantasies/theories originating from some
doubtfull ancient history do also</DIV>
<DIV>apply nowadays, on humans or on humans in the financial
(stock-) markets.</DIV>
<DIV>Whatever the geek(Fibonaccy) or the GANN-tastic were on about is not
clear to me,</DIV>
<DIV>except that they were gifted with a lot of fantasy and had a lot of time to
spare.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>To start with Fibionaccy, this guy has lived somewhere back in the 12th
century(forgive</DIV>
<DIV>me if it is the wrong century, as I do not keep track of it).</DIV>
<DIV>The guy had come up with a number-sequence-theory(or fantasy) that he has
found to</DIV>
<DIV>be applicable for repetative mathematical tasks, and that was also
taking place in</DIV>
<DIV>those days. Whatever went on in those days, I do not know, i.e. I was not
there and</DIV>
<DIV>I wasn't tought on it at school. Besides, whatever mathematics has to do
with human</DIV>
<DIV>behaviour, tho, I do not know. What I do know, is that the 2 should not get
mixed up.</DIV>
<DIV>Also, the sequence has not done anything for or in this world. It is much
like other</DIV>
<DIV>(historical) believes and religions, lot of talk no deeds.</DIV>
<DIV>Having also been an engineer in large buidings, houses, technical
installations and</DIV>
<DIV>some internal architectures, you can be most certain that I have never been
able to</DIV>
<DIV>use this sequencing in the trade(s), and I would not recommend you or
anyone to build</DIV>
<DIV>your house's fundament and internal structure on it either!!!!!, eg
see also the</DIV>
<DIV>examples given below.</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>The decimal countings, eg 10, 20, 30, 40, 50......and their halves
5,15,25,35........came</DIV>
<DIV>into the world after the Golden 17th century and have served mankind for
the better.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV>Let's use the Fibonaccy sequence in a few examples (human behavior &
resistance):</DIV>
<DIV>1. Buy a car and start hitting the road. Do you slowdown at certain
milages because that is</DIV>
<DIV> your behaviour or do you do so because it is common
sence not to speed (or tickets</DIV>
<DIV> will be flying in) or that there is a great wall ahead
of you? When will you reverse(slow-down)?</DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks, eg
thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>2. Buy a computer and check on the time you spend per day on using the
it.</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks, eg
thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>3. Go to a swimming-pool and take a dive in the water. When will you
slow-down?</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks, eg
thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>4. In your memory go back to your school-days. In the classes did you
find resitance?</DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks, eg
thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV>5. Go to work each day. On what days do you find resitance?</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV> Are they at 23.4%, 38.6% or 63.6% ? Nada, niks, eg
thus nothing of this non-sence.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>However, many financial educating books (yes you will not believe it, but
those on T.A.</DIV>
<DIV>as well) assume that the guy has also found this sequence to be true on
human behaviour</DIV>
<DIV>(???? in those days, without computers being able to check on it
?), and as such and in</DIV>
<DIV>writing on and supposibly teaching you, the human, the behaviour in
the financial markets</DIV>
<DIV>while reading the books) these books do find this sequence "automaticaly"
and to be</DIV>
<DIV>applicable in the human behaviour (in general as well as in human
behaviour) on the</DIV>
<DIV>stock markets or on the financial markets. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Many studies to this effect, have proven these books naturaly to be wrong,
actualy litterly to</DIV>
<DIV>be just way-off (hoaxes).</DIV>
<DIV>The Uni of Amsterdam have done a study into repetative retracements and
their levels, taken</DIV>
<DIV>form previously made highs and lows. The outcome to this was that, if there
is a sequence</DIV>
<DIV>(or any cycles) to this effect present in the financial markets, these to
be the regular decimals</DIV>
<DIV>5,10,15,20,25,30,40,50,60,70,75,80,100 percentage retracements, where also
the dividing</DIV>
<DIV>1/3, 2/3, 3/3 and the 1/4, 2/4, 3/4, 4/4 were of the most
frequent re-appearing nature as well,</DIV>
<DIV>and that pure rounded figures, eg $50, $100, $150, $200, $250 or 1000,
2000, 2500, 3000</DIV>
<DIV>etc. etc. were truely human price(points) barriers as well.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Other studies have also made clear that a lot of mechanical system-traders
have adopted</DIV>
<DIV>the Fibonaccy-ranges in their trading-systems, eg the computorised
mechanical trading-systems.</DIV>
<DIV>These ranges levels are then also naturaly the levels in between the
decimal numbers ranges</DIV>
<DIV>given above, and will also, naturaly (depending on the state of the market)
fluctuate from</DIV>
<DIV>time to time, and from trader to trader. As these ranges are also decimal,
adopting it in their</DIV>
<DIV>computorised system-trading is quite natural, as lines for their
targets (buy or sell) must be</DIV>
<DIV>drawn somewhere (i.e. statistical lines).</DIV>
<DIV>The most effective though, for retracements, where the latter mentioned
market divisors</DIV>
<DIV>1/3, 2/3, 1/4 , 2/4. From studies made to their origin, they have been also
used by the same</DIV>
<DIV>17-centuries trailers' Captains sailing the world to agrree on
arrival of their cargos.</DIV>
<DIV>Actualy, they would give the owners a guarantee(option) that their goods
would arrive,</DIV>
<DIV>contrary they would also give the future owners unguranteed the assurance
that their future</DIV>
<DIV>goods would arrive. Naturaly, they have had to do this on certain terms or
other with a feather</DIV>
<DIV>written down financial conditions (1/3, 2/3, 1/4, 2/4) and as such the
first options were born.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>For trading the markets, go with the rest, eg use the traders tail(s),
as they also make or brake</DIV>
<DIV>the market, only in the very short term perspective. But do not come back
crying if it did not</DIV>
<DIV>workout for you, as the markets will tell what will happen next, not the
traders or their Fibonaccy</DIV>
<DIV>retracements.</DIV>
<DIV>For investing on the markets, skip the fact that you've ever heard about
the Fibonaccy goof</DIV>
<DIV>and at the most try to read on up on GANN, but since it involves a lot of
"fantastics" too, then</DIV>
<DIV>do practise it first for real or better omit, it will be your best way
out. There are plenty of other,</DIV>
<DIV>better and true sensible tools to use to enable you to read the markets.
Note that even though,</DIV>
<DIV>you are able to read the market, there is no guarantee that your
readings will be 100% proof.</DIV>
<DIV>In that, the market gives, takes and decides.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Most of these F & G tools are buid-in in MetaStock, but cannot recall
anyone using them</DIV>
<DIV>consistantly AND providing others with clear evidential means (eg to
convince others, enough</DIV>
<DIV>to also start using them).</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Regards,<BR>Ton Maas<BR><A
href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Dismiss the
".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Linda Swope
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:ms-irb@xxxxxx";
title=ms-irb@xxxxxx>ms-irb@xxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> zondag 7 maart 1999 3:17</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> re:gann</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Hi!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000> Read your post re:gann. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Could you elaborate on:" Much like the fibionacy
theories, they miss out on markets' bindings<BR>too much too make sence, eg
financial, economical, human or otherwise<BR>(let alone common
sence)."?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>And:"But not prior to the<BR>last 2-3 years tho, and therefore there goes
these type of theories,<BR>because of the missing bindings, no guarantees can
be given that<BR>the markets will relive these type of traders' fantasy
theories over and<BR>over again. In that respect, swamps and quick sand are
more of the<BR>same solid grounds to build a house on."?<BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>I am a new student of the psychology of tech.
analysis. Nothing formal, just trying to add a big chunk of psych to my
trading plan. I'd love to hear more of what you mean here!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Linda<BR></FONT><FONT color=#000000><BR>Swope's
Mountain Photography<BR><A
href="http://www.swopephoto.com";>http://www.swopephoto.com</A><BR><A
href="mailto:linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>linda@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR>Climb the
mountains & get their glad tidings: Peace will flow into you as sunshine
into flower; the winds will blow their freshness into you & storms their
energy, & cares will drop off you like autumn leaves. John Muir 1838 -
1914</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun May 16 20:18:05 1999
Received: from listserv.equis.com (204.246.137.2)
by mail05.rapidsite.net (RS ver 1.0.2) with SMTP id 4038;
Sun, 16 May 1999 18:19:49 -0400 (EDT)
Received: (from majordom@xxxxxxxxx)
by listserv.equis.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) id QAA06792
for metastock-outgoing; Sun, 16 May 1999 16:08:36 -0600
X-Authentication-Warning: listserv.equis.com: majordom set sender to owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx using -f
Received: from freeze.metastock.com (freeze.metastock.com [204.246.137.5])
by listserv.equis.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) with ESMTP id QAA06786
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 16 May 1999 16:08:32 -0600
Received: from hme0.mailrouter02.sprint.ca (hme0.mailrouter02.sprint.ca [207.107.250.60])
by freeze.metastock.com (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id QAA12598
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 16 May 1999 16:19:14 -0600 (MDT)
Received: from walter (spc-isp-ott-uas-21-7.sprint.ca [209.103.37.8])
by hme0.mailrouter02.sprint.ca (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id SAA16971
for <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Sun, 16 May 1999 18:07:14 -0400 (EDT)
Message-ID: <002701be9fe8$85aa1d60$082567d1@xxxxxx>
From: "Walter Lake" <wlake@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Metastock bulletin board" <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: thanks for help
Date: Sun, 16 May 1999 18:07:41 -0400
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-Priority: 3
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2014.211
Sender: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Precedence: bulk
Reply-To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Loop-Detect: 1
X-UIDL: cffb7d5c1586c17a173e0415fa68a8eb.11
Onno, Adam, Lionel, Jim, Joe, etc. (hope that I didn't miss anybody)
Thanks for your ideas and help. Murray Ruggiero has a good article in this
month's Futures Magazine about copying and pasting the trades from your
Metastock System Test directly into an Excel workbook then using a FREQUENCY
in-cell formula to put the trade profit and loss into "bins".
>From there you can construct a histogram of the frequency distribution and
graph the results easily.
The general formula of 12 and 60 EMA's moving in the same direction is the
basic one that John Sweeney used in "Campaign Trading" and "Maximum Adverse
Excursion". The system tests are done without stops because the MAE formulas
help you to determine the stops used for your tradeable during actual
trading.
The May issue of Futures Mag also has an article by Thomas Stridsman on
coding short term bars and medium term swing trading for use with breakout
models etc.
Jack Schwager has a continuing series on coding chart patterns. The April
and May issues are devoted to the different "Gap" patterns. For those of you
that don't "read" Trade Station or Easy Language code there is a very
important side bar that has side-by-side code and "Standard English"
translation.
Thanks again to all that helped. I will forward the Excel 97 workbook and
code mentioned above when it is finished. If anyone would like the workbook
saved as another version of Excel please let me know as I finally figured
out how to save files in earlier version formats. Duh!
Best regards
Walter
|