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On Thu, 15 Apr 1999 13:23:15 +0200, A.J. Maas wrote:
>Wouldn't you think that 12.000 (11896) is currently be a more precise
>Channel Top?
What is the three-line (blue) indicator on your chart? A Raff
Channel?
One difference I see is that you draw your channel back farther than
mine, resulting in a steeper channel.
Just goes to show that TA is art, not science. I can't tell, yet,
which channel is better.
>
>The attached chart is Monthly and Relational Relative (eg all price moves
>are equaly calculated + displayed).
My chart is weekly, and the vertical axis is logarithmic (same as
yours).
>
>A Diamond exactly matches and fits the lower Horizontal Trend Channel, eg
>the former Trading Range 9648 - 7400 (=2248).
>
>>From this Diamond and the Horizontal Trend Channel's lower channel, the
>recent outbreak's maximum target will be the Top of the upper channel at
>11896 (=9448 + 2248) , this Top also coincides with the Long Term UpTrend
>Channel's Top resistance line (since 1980 and prior !).
>
>Regards,
>Ton Maas
>ms-irb@xxxxxx
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Guy Gordon <gordon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: donderdag 15 april 1999 4:43
>Subject: Warning: Dow at top of channel.
>
>
>> This chart should scare the bejesus out of us all.
>> http://www.white-crane.com/stocks/DOW.gif
>>
>> It's a weekly chart of the DOW 30 Industrials from 1982 to present.
>> There is a *well* defined channel that we hit the top of today.
>> This channel top was hit in at these times:
>>
>> August 1987 - declined from 2750 to 1616 (-41%)
>> August 1997 - declined from 8300 to 7000 (-16%)
>> April 1998 - declined from 9300 to 8600 (-8%),
>> Then climbed to back to 9300 before falling to 7400 (-20%)
>>
>> Now, I'm not Chicken Little. I'm a long term bull. But this is
>> warning me to get out of this market for while. I think the
>> fundamentals of this market are strong (low interest rates and big
>> cash inflows.) So I don't expect a big correction. I just don't want
>> to be in for even a small one.
>>
>> In the last few days I've sold HD, WMT, MWD, NITE, PFE, VISX, CYMI.
>> I'm hoping for a bounce tomorrow so I can sell some others.
>>
>> Good luck.
>>
>
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