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<DIV><FONT size=2>Rick,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Thanks for the input. Actually,
the rather subjective final decision on which stock will be my pick for the week
is part of my system <G>. However, I understand what you mean.
I do always look at the closed positions, especially the losses, to see if there
was something obvious that I could change in the system to avoid the same
problem in the future. However, I really haven't taken a hard look at or
really even followed the second choices that I didn't get. That's a good
idea, thanks!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> It's probably also a good idea
to stop tweaking the system since I'm pretty satisfied with it exception for the
market timing and direction part that I haven't really described yet. It's
also based on trend channels with market indices. I'm thinking about
revisions to what I'm currently doing and maybe expanding it to more sector
analysis. I'll try to get a discussion going on it in the near
future.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I really do appreciate all the
comments I have been getting The has two reasons for starting these
discussions. First if I could describe my system, I would understand it
better and hopefully follow it closer <G>. I think that has
worked. Last but not least, I might get some helpful ideas for
improvements. That has also worked, so the discussions have really been a
benefit to me. I just hope others got some good out of them
also.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Rick
Mortellra</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>MetaStock List</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 14, 1998 7:28 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: Building Blocks - Trend Channels</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>Hi ya "Swami"
Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think for pointers on how to tweak your system
you need to look no further than your book of closed trades. I assume you do
keep (at least you should) a careful record of each trade? My feeling is that
just about any system based on sound trading logic that can be backtested can
make you money using the right money management filters. </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>So if I were you, I'd go thru my closed book and play
"what if" with my exit stops. <FONT face=Arial size=2>Obviously,
this is not something that can be done by computer unless you've kept all the
details of the trades on a spreadsheet. Even then it's no easy
task.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That said, you do have a good low-risk objective
strategy that's on a real hot streak. But from my point of view, it's not so
much your channel entry/exit system but your stock selection that is making
you the bucks. By that I mean, every week you generate a list of possibilities
from which you take your weekly trade. You normally don't have the buying
power to take all signaled trades so you are forced to select 1 or 2 stocks
out of several candidates. Moreover, I sense your last cut may be pretty
subjective. Your recent choices have been amazing, almost telepathic and why
I've nicknamed you the Swami ;-), in that they are almost immediately followed
by some news-driven move. Iomega and Eggs are recent examples that pop into my
mind.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But, without taking all signaled trades, its hard
to measure your systems real performance. Your systems recent success may very
well be just due to the "luck of the draw." So, you might want to
also examine records of trades you passed on to get a better feel if it's just
your good "judgement" or the system that's making you money. If it's
the system and the returns are acceptable for the risk, then my advise is
don't fiddle with it. Try working on another system you can add to your
toolbox that will work under different market conditions. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's all I can offer for now. Probably not much
immediate help but perhaps some food for thought.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Merry Christmas,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Rick</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Monday, December 14, 1998 4:31 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Building Blocks -
Trend Channels<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Last week I talked about how I
use trend channels to set targets and stops to tell me when to exit a
position. This week I'm going to go back to the beginning to discuss
how I use trend channels to tell me when to enter a position. I'd
appreciate any comments pro or con on this methodology.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I've come to depend more and more
on trend channels as my primary technical analysis tool. The theory of trend
channel investing is simple. First you have to construct the trend channel.
After that is done the rest is easy. For up trend channels you open a long
position right after a stock bounces off the bottom of a channel and close
the position when it hits the top of a channel. Vice versa for down trend
channels. I treat horizontal channels like up trend channels for trading
purposes.<BR> Of course, I expand on this simple
methodology slightly <G>. First I construct short, intermediate, and
long term channels on all my charts. My definition of short,
intermediate and long term is flexible. In general short term is days to up
to a few months, intermediate term is a few months to over a year, and long
term is years. I like to open a position in the direction of the long term
trend channel when an intermediate term trend channel is broken and the
stock reverses in the direction of the long term trend. Since this is a
fairly rare occurrence, my secondary method which occurs much more
frequently and is, therefore, the one I use the most, is to enter a position
when the short term trend channel is broken and the stock reverses in
direction of the intermediate term trend channel. In both cases, the
reversal is a better buy signal when it occurs in conjunction with a bounce
off the bottom of the longer term trend channel. Once a stock has
reversed its trend, I construct a new short term trend channel in the
direction of the longer term trend. I use this new Short Term Trend
Channel to set my targets and stops as I described last week if I entered a
position on the breakout of the old channel. If I missed entering the
position at the breakout, there are additional entry points every time the
stock bounces off the bottom of the new short term trend channel.
<BR> As you can see, using trend channels for
signaling when to enter a new position is straight forward and simple.
The trick is how to objectively and consistently construct the trend
channels. For short term up trend channels I use the Standard
Deviation Channel built into MetaStock. I start the channel immediately to
the left of the lowest low in the data being considered and end immediately
to the right of the highest high in the time frame. I set the deviation at 2
to determine the targets and at 1 to determine the stops. I usually
leave it at 1 for looking at the charts since the stop is more important
than the target I extend the channel to the right. Anytime a new high is
hit, I'll drag the right end of the channel immediately to the right of that
high. After a few months with at least two good reactions, I switch to
Trader Vic type trend lines to construct my short term channels. I only use
Trader Vic type trend lines for intermediate and long term channels. I
like the Trader Vic methodology much better than using a standard deviation
channel, but it gives many more false signals than standard deviation
channels do for very short term channels without any major reactions in the
data. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> For a Trader Vic up trend line,
start with the lowest low in the time frame being considered. Draw a line
from that low to a low before the highest high in the time frame such that
the line doesn't pass through any data. It's important that you don't draw
the line through any data or to a low that is past the highest high in the
timeframe. A down trend line is just the mirror image using the highs in the
time frame. To construct the up trend channel, extend the line to the right,
then draw a parallel line through the most extreme high in the time frame
such that the line doesn't intersect any other data points. This is easy
with MetaStock. You can hold the CTRL key down, then hold the left mouse key
down once you are on the original line and drag a parallel line to where
ever you want it. You can do the down trend channels in a similar manner.
Horizontal channels are the easiest. Just drop a horizontal line on the
highest high and lowest low in the time frame. My final touch is to change
the line color and style: blue and dashed for short term channels; red
and dashed for intermediate term channels; and magenta and dashed for long
term channels.<BR> That's all there is to it,
what do you think? Does it make sense?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim <BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Message-ID: <000201be288a$52dd8640$2a7d2599@xxxx>
From: "Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Building Blocks - Trend Channels
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 18:45:46 -0500
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Rick,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Thanks for the input. Actually,
the rather subjective final decision on which stock will be my pick for the week
is part of my system <G>. However, I understand what you mean.
I do always look at the closed positions, especially the losses, to see if there
was something obvious that I could change in the system to avoid the same
problem in the future. However, I really haven't taken a hard look at or
really even followed the second choices that I didn't get. That's a good
idea, thanks!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> It's probably also a good idea
to stop tweaking the system since I'm pretty satisfied with it exception for the
market timing and direction part that I haven't really described yet. It's
also based on trend channels with market indices. I'm thinking about
revisions to what I'm currently doing and maybe expanding it to more sector
analysis. I'll try to get a discussion going on it in the near
future.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I really do appreciate all the
comments I have been getting The has two reasons for starting these
discussions. First if I could describe my system, I would understand it
better and hopefully follow it closer <G>. I think that has
worked. Last but not least, I might get some helpful ideas for
improvements. That has also worked, so the discussions have really been a
benefit to me. I just hope others got some good out of them
also.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Rick
Mortellra</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>MetaStock List</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 14, 1998 7:28 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: Building Blocks - Trend Channels</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>Hi ya "Swami"
Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think for pointers on how to tweak your system
you need to look no further than your book of closed trades. I assume you do
keep (at least you should) a careful record of each trade? My feeling is that
just about any system based on sound trading logic that can be backtested can
make you money using the right money management filters. </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>So if I were you, I'd go thru my closed book and play
"what if" with my exit stops. <FONT face=Arial size=2>Obviously,
this is not something that can be done by computer unless you've kept all the
details of the trades on a spreadsheet. Even then it's no easy
task.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That said, you do have a good low-risk objective
strategy that's on a real hot streak. But from my point of view, it's not so
much your channel entry/exit system but your stock selection that is making
you the bucks. By that I mean, every week you generate a list of possibilities
from which you take your weekly trade. You normally don't have the buying
power to take all signaled trades so you are forced to select 1 or 2 stocks
out of several candidates. Moreover, I sense your last cut may be pretty
subjective. Your recent choices have been amazing, almost telepathic and why
I've nicknamed you the Swami ;-), in that they are almost immediately followed
by some news-driven move. Iomega and Eggs are recent examples that pop into my
mind.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But, without taking all signaled trades, its hard
to measure your systems real performance. Your systems recent success may very
well be just due to the "luck of the draw." So, you might want to
also examine records of trades you passed on to get a better feel if it's just
your good "judgement" or the system that's making you money. If it's
the system and the returns are acceptable for the risk, then my advise is
don't fiddle with it. Try working on another system you can add to your
toolbox that will work under different market conditions. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's all I can offer for now. Probably not much
immediate help but perhaps some food for thought.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Merry Christmas,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Rick</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Monday, December 14, 1998 4:31 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Building Blocks -
Trend Channels<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Last week I talked about how I
use trend channels to set targets and stops to tell me when to exit a
position. This week I'm going to go back to the beginning to discuss
how I use trend channels to tell me when to enter a position. I'd
appreciate any comments pro or con on this methodology.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I've come to depend more and more
on trend channels as my primary technical analysis tool. The theory of trend
channel investing is simple. First you have to construct the trend channel.
After that is done the rest is easy. For up trend channels you open a long
position right after a stock bounces off the bottom of a channel and close
the position when it hits the top of a channel. Vice versa for down trend
channels. I treat horizontal channels like up trend channels for trading
purposes.<BR> Of course, I expand on this simple
methodology slightly <G>. First I construct short, intermediate, and
long term channels on all my charts. My definition of short,
intermediate and long term is flexible. In general short term is days to up
to a few months, intermediate term is a few months to over a year, and long
term is years. I like to open a position in the direction of the long term
trend channel when an intermediate term trend channel is broken and the
stock reverses in the direction of the long term trend. Since this is a
fairly rare occurrence, my secondary method which occurs much more
frequently and is, therefore, the one I use the most, is to enter a position
when the short term trend channel is broken and the stock reverses in
direction of the intermediate term trend channel. In both cases, the
reversal is a better buy signal when it occurs in conjunction with a bounce
off the bottom of the longer term trend channel. Once a stock has
reversed its trend, I construct a new short term trend channel in the
direction of the longer term trend. I use this new Short Term Trend
Channel to set my targets and stops as I described last week if I entered a
position on the breakout of the old channel. If I missed entering the
position at the breakout, there are additional entry points every time the
stock bounces off the bottom of the new short term trend channel.
<BR> As you can see, using trend channels for
signaling when to enter a new position is straight forward and simple.
The trick is how to objectively and consistently construct the trend
channels. For short term up trend channels I use the Standard
Deviation Channel built into MetaStock. I start the channel immediately to
the left of the lowest low in the data being considered and end immediately
to the right of the highest high in the time frame. I set the deviation at 2
to determine the targets and at 1 to determine the stops. I usually
leave it at 1 for looking at the charts since the stop is more important
than the target I extend the channel to the right. Anytime a new high is
hit, I'll drag the right end of the channel immediately to the right of that
high. After a few months with at least two good reactions, I switch to
Trader Vic type trend lines to construct my short term channels. I only use
Trader Vic type trend lines for intermediate and long term channels. I
like the Trader Vic methodology much better than using a standard deviation
channel, but it gives many more false signals than standard deviation
channels do for very short term channels without any major reactions in the
data. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> For a Trader Vic up trend line,
start with the lowest low in the time frame being considered. Draw a line
from that low to a low before the highest high in the time frame such that
the line doesn't pass through any data. It's important that you don't draw
the line through any data or to a low that is past the highest high in the
timeframe. A down trend line is just the mirror image using the highs in the
time frame. To construct the up trend channel, extend the line to the right,
then draw a parallel line through the most extreme high in the time frame
such that the line doesn't intersect any other data points. This is easy
with MetaStock. You can hold the CTRL key down, then hold the left mouse key
down once you are on the original line and drag a parallel line to where
ever you want it. You can do the down trend channels in a similar manner.
Horizontal channels are the easiest. Just drop a horizontal line on the
highest high and lowest low in the time frame. My final touch is to change
the line color and style: blue and dashed for short term channels; red
and dashed for intermediate term channels; and magenta and dashed for long
term channels.<BR> That's all there is to it,
what do you think? Does it make sense?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim <BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Message-ID: <000201be2889$4a2dd1e0$f87d2599@xxxx>
From: "Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Building Blocks - Trend Channels
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 18:45:46 -0500
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Rick,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Thanks for the input. Actually,
the rather subjective final decision on which stock will be my pick for the week
is part of my system <G>. However, I understand what you mean.
I do always look at the closed positions, especially the losses, to see if there
was something obvious that I could change in the system to avoid the same
problem in the future. However, I really haven't taken a hard look at or
really even followed the second choices that I didn't get. That's a good
idea, thanks!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> It's probably also a good idea
to stop tweaking the system since I'm pretty satisfied with it exception for the
market timing and direction part that I haven't really described yet. It's
also based on trend channels with market indices. I'm thinking about
revisions to what I'm currently doing and maybe expanding it to more sector
analysis. I'll try to get a discussion going on it in the near
future.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I really do appreciate all the
comments I have been getting The has two reasons for starting these
discussions. First if I could describe my system, I would understand it
better and hopefully follow it closer <G>. I think that has
worked. Last but not least, I might get some helpful ideas for
improvements. That has also worked, so the discussions have really been a
benefit to me. I just hope others got some good out of them
also.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Rick
Mortellra</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>MetaStock List</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 14, 1998 7:28 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: Building Blocks - Trend Channels</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>Hi ya "Swami"
Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think for pointers on how to tweak your system
you need to look no further than your book of closed trades. I assume you do
keep (at least you should) a careful record of each trade? My feeling is that
just about any system based on sound trading logic that can be backtested can
make you money using the right money management filters. </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>So if I were you, I'd go thru my closed book and play
"what if" with my exit stops. <FONT face=Arial size=2>Obviously,
this is not something that can be done by computer unless you've kept all the
details of the trades on a spreadsheet. Even then it's no easy
task.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That said, you do have a good low-risk objective
strategy that's on a real hot streak. But from my point of view, it's not so
much your channel entry/exit system but your stock selection that is making
you the bucks. By that I mean, every week you generate a list of possibilities
from which you take your weekly trade. You normally don't have the buying
power to take all signaled trades so you are forced to select 1 or 2 stocks
out of several candidates. Moreover, I sense your last cut may be pretty
subjective. Your recent choices have been amazing, almost telepathic and why
I've nicknamed you the Swami ;-), in that they are almost immediately followed
by some news-driven move. Iomega and Eggs are recent examples that pop into my
mind.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But, without taking all signaled trades, its hard
to measure your systems real performance. Your systems recent success may very
well be just due to the "luck of the draw." So, you might want to
also examine records of trades you passed on to get a better feel if it's just
your good "judgement" or the system that's making you money. If it's
the system and the returns are acceptable for the risk, then my advise is
don't fiddle with it. Try working on another system you can add to your
toolbox that will work under different market conditions. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's all I can offer for now. Probably not much
immediate help but perhaps some food for thought.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Merry Christmas,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Rick</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Monday, December 14, 1998 4:31 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Building Blocks -
Trend Channels<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Last week I talked about how I
use trend channels to set targets and stops to tell me when to exit a
position. This week I'm going to go back to the beginning to discuss
how I use trend channels to tell me when to enter a position. I'd
appreciate any comments pro or con on this methodology.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I've come to depend more and more
on trend channels as my primary technical analysis tool. The theory of trend
channel investing is simple. First you have to construct the trend channel.
After that is done the rest is easy. For up trend channels you open a long
position right after a stock bounces off the bottom of a channel and close
the position when it hits the top of a channel. Vice versa for down trend
channels. I treat horizontal channels like up trend channels for trading
purposes.<BR> Of course, I expand on this simple
methodology slightly <G>. First I construct short, intermediate, and
long term channels on all my charts. My definition of short,
intermediate and long term is flexible. In general short term is days to up
to a few months, intermediate term is a few months to over a year, and long
term is years. I like to open a position in the direction of the long term
trend channel when an intermediate term trend channel is broken and the
stock reverses in the direction of the long term trend. Since this is a
fairly rare occurrence, my secondary method which occurs much more
frequently and is, therefore, the one I use the most, is to enter a position
when the short term trend channel is broken and the stock reverses in
direction of the intermediate term trend channel. In both cases, the
reversal is a better buy signal when it occurs in conjunction with a bounce
off the bottom of the longer term trend channel. Once a stock has
reversed its trend, I construct a new short term trend channel in the
direction of the longer term trend. I use this new Short Term Trend
Channel to set my targets and stops as I described last week if I entered a
position on the breakout of the old channel. If I missed entering the
position at the breakout, there are additional entry points every time the
stock bounces off the bottom of the new short term trend channel.
<BR> As you can see, using trend channels for
signaling when to enter a new position is straight forward and simple.
The trick is how to objectively and consistently construct the trend
channels. For short term up trend channels I use the Standard
Deviation Channel built into MetaStock. I start the channel immediately to
the left of the lowest low in the data being considered and end immediately
to the right of the highest high in the time frame. I set the deviation at 2
to determine the targets and at 1 to determine the stops. I usually
leave it at 1 for looking at the charts since the stop is more important
than the target I extend the channel to the right. Anytime a new high is
hit, I'll drag the right end of the channel immediately to the right of that
high. After a few months with at least two good reactions, I switch to
Trader Vic type trend lines to construct my short term channels. I only use
Trader Vic type trend lines for intermediate and long term channels. I
like the Trader Vic methodology much better than using a standard deviation
channel, but it gives many more false signals than standard deviation
channels do for very short term channels without any major reactions in the
data. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> For a Trader Vic up trend line,
start with the lowest low in the time frame being considered. Draw a line
from that low to a low before the highest high in the time frame such that
the line doesn't pass through any data. It's important that you don't draw
the line through any data or to a low that is past the highest high in the
timeframe. A down trend line is just the mirror image using the highs in the
time frame. To construct the up trend channel, extend the line to the right,
then draw a parallel line through the most extreme high in the time frame
such that the line doesn't intersect any other data points. This is easy
with MetaStock. You can hold the CTRL key down, then hold the left mouse key
down once you are on the original line and drag a parallel line to where
ever you want it. You can do the down trend channels in a similar manner.
Horizontal channels are the easiest. Just drop a horizontal line on the
highest high and lowest low in the time frame. My final touch is to change
the line color and style: blue and dashed for short term channels; red
and dashed for intermediate term channels; and magenta and dashed for long
term channels.<BR> That's all there is to it,
what do you think? Does it make sense?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim <BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Message-ID: <000201be288b$340a2d80$f1672599@xxxx>
From: "Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Building Blocks - Trend Channels
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 18:45:46 -0500
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Rick,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Thanks for the input. Actually,
the rather subjective final decision on which stock will be my pick for the week
is part of my system <G>. However, I understand what you mean.
I do always look at the closed positions, especially the losses, to see if there
was something obvious that I could change in the system to avoid the same
problem in the future. However, I really haven't taken a hard look at or
really even followed the second choices that I didn't get. That's a good
idea, thanks!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> It's probably also a good idea
to stop tweaking the system since I'm pretty satisfied with it exception for the
market timing and direction part that I haven't really described yet. It's
also based on trend channels with market indices. I'm thinking about
revisions to what I'm currently doing and maybe expanding it to more sector
analysis. I'll try to get a discussion going on it in the near
future.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I really do appreciate all the
comments I have been getting The has two reasons for starting these
discussions. First if I could describe my system, I would understand it
better and hopefully follow it closer <G>. I think that has
worked. Last but not least, I might get some helpful ideas for
improvements. That has also worked, so the discussions have really been a
benefit to me. I just hope others got some good out of them
also.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Rick
Mortellra</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>MetaStock List</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 14, 1998 7:28 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: Building Blocks - Trend Channels</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2>Hi ya "Swami"
Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I think for pointers on how to tweak your system
you need to look no further than your book of closed trades. I assume you do
keep (at least you should) a careful record of each trade? My feeling is that
just about any system based on sound trading logic that can be backtested can
make you money using the right money management filters. </FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2>So if I were you, I'd go thru my closed book and play
"what if" with my exit stops. <FONT face=Arial size=2>Obviously,
this is not something that can be done by computer unless you've kept all the
details of the trades on a spreadsheet. Even then it's no easy
task.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That said, you do have a good low-risk objective
strategy that's on a real hot streak. But from my point of view, it's not so
much your channel entry/exit system but your stock selection that is making
you the bucks. By that I mean, every week you generate a list of possibilities
from which you take your weekly trade. You normally don't have the buying
power to take all signaled trades so you are forced to select 1 or 2 stocks
out of several candidates. Moreover, I sense your last cut may be pretty
subjective. Your recent choices have been amazing, almost telepathic and why
I've nicknamed you the Swami ;-), in that they are almost immediately followed
by some news-driven move. Iomega and Eggs are recent examples that pop into my
mind.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But, without taking all signaled trades, its hard
to measure your systems real performance. Your systems recent success may very
well be just due to the "luck of the draw." So, you might want to
also examine records of trades you passed on to get a better feel if it's just
your good "judgement" or the system that's making you money. If it's
the system and the returns are acceptable for the risk, then my advise is
don't fiddle with it. Try working on another system you can add to your
toolbox that will work under different market conditions. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That's all I can offer for now. Probably not much
immediate help but perhaps some food for thought.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Merry Christmas,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Rick</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Monday, December 14, 1998 4:31 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Building Blocks -
Trend Channels<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Last week I talked about how I
use trend channels to set targets and stops to tell me when to exit a
position. This week I'm going to go back to the beginning to discuss
how I use trend channels to tell me when to enter a position. I'd
appreciate any comments pro or con on this methodology.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I've come to depend more and more
on trend channels as my primary technical analysis tool. The theory of trend
channel investing is simple. First you have to construct the trend channel.
After that is done the rest is easy. For up trend channels you open a long
position right after a stock bounces off the bottom of a channel and close
the position when it hits the top of a channel. Vice versa for down trend
channels. I treat horizontal channels like up trend channels for trading
purposes.<BR> Of course, I expand on this simple
methodology slightly <G>. First I construct short, intermediate, and
long term channels on all my charts. My definition of short,
intermediate and long term is flexible. In general short term is days to up
to a few months, intermediate term is a few months to over a year, and long
term is years. I like to open a position in the direction of the long term
trend channel when an intermediate term trend channel is broken and the
stock reverses in the direction of the long term trend. Since this is a
fairly rare occurrence, my secondary method which occurs much more
frequently and is, therefore, the one I use the most, is to enter a position
when the short term trend channel is broken and the stock reverses in
direction of the intermediate term trend channel. In both cases, the
reversal is a better buy signal when it occurs in conjunction with a bounce
off the bottom of the longer term trend channel. Once a stock has
reversed its trend, I construct a new short term trend channel in the
direction of the longer term trend. I use this new Short Term Trend
Channel to set my targets and stops as I described last week if I entered a
position on the breakout of the old channel. If I missed entering the
position at the breakout, there are additional entry points every time the
stock bounces off the bottom of the new short term trend channel.
<BR> As you can see, using trend channels for
signaling when to enter a new position is straight forward and simple.
The trick is how to objectively and consistently construct the trend
channels. For short term up trend channels I use the Standard
Deviation Channel built into MetaStock. I start the channel immediately to
the left of the lowest low in the data being considered and end immediately
to the right of the highest high in the time frame. I set the deviation at 2
to determine the targets and at 1 to determine the stops. I usually
leave it at 1 for looking at the charts since the stop is more important
than the target I extend the channel to the right. Anytime a new high is
hit, I'll drag the right end of the channel immediately to the right of that
high. After a few months with at least two good reactions, I switch to
Trader Vic type trend lines to construct my short term channels. I only use
Trader Vic type trend lines for intermediate and long term channels. I
like the Trader Vic methodology much better than using a standard deviation
channel, but it gives many more false signals than standard deviation
channels do for very short term channels without any major reactions in the
data. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> For a Trader Vic up trend line,
start with the lowest low in the time frame being considered. Draw a line
from that low to a low before the highest high in the time frame such that
the line doesn't pass through any data. It's important that you don't draw
the line through any data or to a low that is past the highest high in the
timeframe. A down trend line is just the mirror image using the highs in the
time frame. To construct the up trend channel, extend the line to the right,
then draw a parallel line through the most extreme high in the time frame
such that the line doesn't intersect any other data points. This is easy
with MetaStock. You can hold the CTRL key down, then hold the left mouse key
down once you are on the original line and drag a parallel line to where
ever you want it. You can do the down trend channels in a similar manner.
Horizontal channels are the easiest. Just drop a horizontal line on the
highest high and lowest low in the time frame. My final touch is to change
the line color and style: blue and dashed for short term channels; red
and dashed for intermediate term channels; and magenta and dashed for long
term channels.<BR> That's all there is to it,
what do you think? Does it make sense?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim <BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Message-ID: <000301be288b$82e89b80$f1672599@xxxx>
From: "Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Printing System Tests to a File?
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 18:57:20 -0500
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Dan,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Actually if you use a generic, text
only printer driver you get an ASCI file. I just tried it with one of my
MS tests and was able to open the file with Microsoft Excel. It even got
the data in columns for me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:rmust@xxxxxxxxxxx"; title=rmust@xxxxxxxxxxx>Robert Must</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 14, 1998 9:22 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: Printing System Tests to a File?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=687542002-15121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>it
probably generates a pcl file that can be sent to a printer at a later time.
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=687542002-15121998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>it
is useless </FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=687542002-15121998><FONT color=#0000ff
face=Arial size=2>to open it in a spreadsheet.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
[<A
href="mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>]<B>On
Behalf Of</B> Jim Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> December 14, 1998 6:03
PM<BR><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A><BR><B>Subject:</B>
Re: Printing System Tests to a File?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Dan,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> Try installing a generic printer
in Windows and set it up to print to file. Then select it as your
default before you print.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:HARELSDB@xxxxxxx"; title=HARELSDB@xxxxxxx>HARELSDB@xxxxxxx</A>
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 14, 1998 1:53 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Printing System Tests to a File?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>I am trying to print the results of Metastock (v 6.5)
System Tests to a file<BR>that can be read by a Lotus 97 123 spreadsheet
program. I can save<BR>information to a file using the dialog boxes
given by Metastock, however, when<BR>I retrieve it using Lotus, all I get
is gibberish and lots of it. I have an<BR>Epson Stylus Color 500
printer and that is my default printer according to the<BR>dialog
box. Has anyone else run into this kind of problem and,
more<BR>importantly, have they figured out how to get around
it?<BR><BR>Thanks,<BR><BR>Dan<BR>Pocatello, ID
USA</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Dec 25 23:24:40 1998
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From: "Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Printing System Tests to a File?
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 19:02:55 -0500
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Dan,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> You're welcome. I've been using
that method to get text files on MS tests, explorations, ect. for a long
time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:HARELSDB@xxxxxxx"; title=HARELSDB@xxxxxxx>HARELSDB@xxxxxxx</A>
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, December 15, 1998 12:46 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: Printing System Tests to a File?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>In a message dated 12/14/98 6:15:01 PM Mountain Standard
Time,<BR>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
writes:<BR><BR><< Try installing a generic printer in Windows and
set it up to print to<BR>file. Then select it as your default before you
print.<BR> <BR> JimG >><BR>Thanks Jim. Your suggestion
worked.<BR><BR>Dan</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Dec 25 23:24:57 1998
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From: "Steven T. Russell" <stevenruss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: Trader Vic Trend Reversal
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 18:34:47 -0800
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Dan,
I am interested in learning more about the Trader Vic methodology, so
I was looking for the Trader Vic book on amazon.com and noticed that
there are two. There is the one you mentioned "Trader Vic: Methods of a
Wall Street Master" and there is one called "Trader Vic II: Principles
of Professional Speculation". Do you know if the latter is simply a
more recent rewrite of the former? Which do you recommend?
Steven
StevenRuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of HARELSDB@xxxxxxx
> Sent: Monday, December 14, 1998 9:46 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Trader Vic Trend Reversal
>
>
> FWIW, the cash S&P 500 Index made a Trader Vic text book, 1,
> 2, 3 trend
> reversal today (12/14).
>
> 1. The S&P 500 violated a trend line drawn from the low on
> 10/7 through the
> low immediately preceding (11/18) the high on 11/27.
>
> 2. The index retested the high of 11/27 on 12/7.
>
> 3. Today the index closed below the low between the high on
> 11/27 and the
> retest on 12/7.
>
> Learning to spot these types of trend reversals has helped my
> trading a great
> deal. The text book is "Trader Vic-Methods of a Wall Street
> Master" by Victor
> Sperandeo with T. Sullivan Brown. The book is written for
> popular consumption
> and is not overly sophisticated. It covers three general
> areas: trading,
> economics and psychology. The discussion of trading is good
> but basic. For
> me, this section was worth the 18.95 cover price. The
> discussion of economics
> is okay but dated and opinionated. I didn't get much out of
> the discussion of
> psychology, but, others might.
>
> Dan
> Pocatello, ID USA
>
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