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Re: Stochastics and MetaStock System Tester



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On Sat, 24 Oct 1998 14:34:45 -0700, Daniel Martinez <DanM@xxxxxxxx>
wrote using X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; U)
================== Gibberish Follows ===================
><HTML>
>Hello Larry,
><BR>No, I want to be able to run EOD system tests which will produce reliable
>results.&nbsp; What I want is for Equis to use intraday signals on their
>stops.&nbsp; This shouldn't be hard, even if the day is a whipsaw day.&nbsp;
>If the stop is within the day's low/high range, the position is closed.&nbsp;
>Otherwise, if the stock or index makes a very large move, you end up losing
>a large percentage of your investment.&nbsp; <B>In reality, this would
><I>never</I> happen<I>.</I></B>
>
><P>Let's say you are running a system test using multiple OPTx variables
>and you unknowingly struck gold.&nbsp; One of the combinations of OPTx's
>is a winner, the one which will make you rich and independently wealthy
>(ye Holy Grail of TA).&nbsp; $35 Mill. Malibu mansion, here I come!!&nbsp;<IMG SRC="cid:part1.363247F5.BB3D63A1@xxxxxxxx"; HEIGHT=16 WIDTH=16 ALIGN=ABSBOTTOM>&nbsp;
>One single large moving day can skew the results of that combination test
>so badly, it can turn a winning system into a mediocre or, even worse,
>a losing system.&nbsp; So, you end up casting that golden system aside.&nbsp;
>Good-bye mansion, good-bye wealth, good-bye jet setter lifestyle.&nbsp;<IMG SRC="cid:part2.363247F5.BB3D63A1@xxxxxxxx"; HEIGHT=16 WIDTH=16 ALIGN=ABSBOTTOM>
>
><P>Because of the way MetaStock's EOD System Tester works, the results
>are suspect and will not give you accurate results.&nbsp; You would have
>to manually check each security to see if it had volatile days.&nbsp; I
>want&nbsp; to use EOD data because using several years of data will allow
>me to create systems for short-term intraweek trading.&nbsp; <B><FONT COLOR="#FF0000">All
>I want is for Equis to <I>fix it</I> and I am even willing to pay $50 for
>the upgrade.</FONT></B>
>
><P>Daniel.
><BR>&nbsp;
>
><P>P.S.:&nbsp; I appreciate that GIF you sent me.&nbsp; But I think you
>should know, that moving spider took up 56K.&nbsp; Those little smiley
>faces I insert are little more than &frac14;K each.&nbsp; Your total message
>size was 82K and was larger than my personally set download limit.&nbsp;
>My mail server doesn't have much bandwidth, so when I get large messages,
>it tends to take awhile to download.&nbsp; While I am writing this message,
>I can't even get mail for some reason.
>
><P>Because Netscape saves all PIC's within the message content and not
>separately, I had to delete your message.&nbsp; I don't like to keep large
>messages in my Netscape folders because all similar messages are combined
>into a single file.&nbsp; I have only resumed receiving messages from this
>ListServ since 10/16 and my Netscape MetaStock ListServ file is already
>1.3 MB's.
>
><P>The only time I keep large messages is when it has a chart.&nbsp; However,
>even then, the sender should use his personal web space.&nbsp; Using converter
>software, a word processor, and FTP Explorer (which is free), the process
>takes just as long to convert to GIF, write in HTML, and upload.&nbsp;
>FTP Explorer even supports drag and drop from Windows Explorer to your
>web space.&nbsp;<IMG SRC="cid:part3.363247F5.BB3D63A1@xxxxxxxx"; HEIGHT=16 WIDTH=16 ALIGN=ABSBOTTOM>
><BR>&nbsp;
><BR>&nbsp;
>
><P>L Petersen wrote:
><BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>Hi Daniel
><BR>You are trying to be both a day trader and a long term position trader;
>that is hard to do with the same tests.&nbsp; I am not sure that what you
>are looking for can be done at any price.
>
><P>One thing that I can say, which might help:&nbsp; The 6.51 Pro real
>time version of MS can do separate tests on both intraday charts (I use
>3 min.)&nbsp; and daily data.&nbsp; Believe me the indicators are often
>completely different (contrary) on charts with different time period orientation.
>
><P>I use the day trading version of MS and find that a simple trend line
>usually is the best stop signal for me.&nbsp; Sometimes the trend line
>is supported by the system, but often it is not.&nbsp; You might try using
>a trend line exit on whatever intraday chart that you have access to.
>
><P>Larry
><BR>____________________
>
><P>Daniel Martinez wrote:
><BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>&nbsp;Hello J.W.E.,
><BR>When I wrote my first email, I suspected I'd have to do that.&nbsp;
>The problem is I'll have to write a formula which incorporates 3 different
>stochastics with variables all at the same time.&nbsp; Since I am not fully
>familiar with the System Tester, I think it will take at least a full day.
>
><P>Also, <B><FONT COLOR="#FF0000">Metastock has a poor implementation of
>stops.</FONT></B>&nbsp; In actual trading, I would never allow more than
>a 15% loss in one day.&nbsp; However, using end-of-day data, MetaStock
>doesn't use intraday stops.&nbsp; &lt;snip></BLOCKQUOTE>
></BLOCKQUOTE>
>&nbsp;</HTML>
======================================================

I can read and send HTML, but chose to turn off the feature as a
courtesy to members of this list server.  Furthermore, the cutesy icon
have been deleted. I would hate to place a GIF filter, as this woould
filter out USEFUL files on this list.  FWIW, some users, myself
included, use a cut and paste feature to save portions of messages.
HTML is not friendly, as reformating is not practical. Space/Speed is
not an issue.., just the formating.

Converted Message follows:

Hello Larry, 
No, I want to be able to run EOD system tests which will produce
reliable results.  What I want is for Equis to use intraday
signals on their stops.  This shouldn't be hard, even if the day is a
whipsaw day.  If the stop is within the day's low/high range,
the position is closed.  Otherwise, if the stock or index makes a very
large move, you end up losing a large percentage of your
investment.  In reality, this would never happen. 

Let's say you are running a system test using multiple OPTx variables
and you unknowingly struck gold.  One of the combinations of OPTx's is
a winner, the one which will make you rich and independently wealthy
(ye Holy Grail of TA). $35 Mill. Malibu mansion, here I come!!   One
single large moving day can skew the results of that combination test
so badly, it can turn a winning system into a mediocre or, even worse,
a losing system.  So, you end up casting that golden system aside.
Good-bye mansion, good-bye wealth, good-bye jet setter lifestyle.  

Because of the way MetaStock's EOD System Tester works, the results
are suspect and will not give you accurate results. You would have to
manually check each security to see if it had volatile days.  I want
to use EOD data because using several years of data will allow me to
create systems for short-term intraweek trading.  All I want is for
Equis to fix it and I am even willing to pay $50 for the upgrade. 

Daniel. 
  

P.S.:  I appreciate that GIF you sent me.  But I think you should
know, that moving spider took up 56K.  Those little smiley faces I
insert are little more than ĽK each.  Your total message size was 82K
and was larger than my personally set download limit.  My mail server
doesn't have much bandwidth, so when I get large messages, it tends to
take awhile to download.  While I am writing this message, I can't
even get mail for some reason.

Because Netscape saves all PIC's within the message content and not
separately, I had to delete your message.  I don't like to
keep large messages in my Netscape folders because all similar
messages are combined into a single file.  I have only
resumed receiving messages from this ListServ since 10/16 and my
Netscape MetaStock ListServ file is already 1.3 MB's. 

The only time I keep large messages is when it has a chart.  However,
even then, the sender should use his personal web space.  Using
converter software, a word processor, and FTP Explorer (which is
free), the process takes just as long to convert to GIF, write in
HTML, and upload.  FTP Explorer even supports drag and drop from
Windows Explorer to your web space.  

L Petersen wrote: 

  Hi Daniel 
  You are trying to be both a day trader and a long term position
trader; that is hard to do with the same tests.  I am not sure
  that what you are looking for can be done at any price. 

  One thing that I can say, which might help:  The 6.51 Pro real time
version of MS can do separate tests on both intraday charts (I use 3
min.)  and daily data.  Believe me the indicators are often completely
different (contrary) on charts with different time period orientation.


  I use the day trading version of MS and find that a simple trend
line usually is the best stop signal for me.  Sometimes the trend line
is supported by the system, but often it is not.  You might try using
a trend line exit on whatever intraday chart that
  you have access to. 

  Larry 
  ____________________ 

  Daniel Martinez wrote: 

    Hello J.W.E., 
   When I wrote my first email, I suspected I'd have to do that.  The
problem is I'll have to write a formula which incorporates 3 different
stochastics with variables all at the same time.  Since I am not fully
familiar with the System Tester, I think it will take at least a full
day. 

   Also, Metastock has a poor implementation of stops.  In actual
trading, I would never allow more than a 15% loss in one day.
However, using end-of-day data, MetaStock doesn't use intraday stops.
<snip>