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Hi Al,
LIZ - You are in an ideal short from my perspective. JF = 28.64 for Thursday
and JF = 29.27 for today (Wednesday). You can think of JF as a trend
projection for maintaining the current up trend that has occurred over the
last few days of LIZ. If the close > JF then the trend is up, else it is
down. The superposition stochastic (formula below) has LIZ going above 80 and
then crossing below. This shows that LIZ is over bought and in most cases
when this stochastic goes above 80 and crosses below it is very safe to enter
a short.
Hence we have a contradiction in logic or in technical analysis we have a
divergence between JF and a stochastic. In general terms, the trajectory of
the trend is going in one direction while the price is curving lower. As
described by the stochastic. I hope that makes sense.
Looking at a stoch(2,2) and a stoch(3,3) we can see that these are pointing
downward from the 80 line. (These two stochastic when near the 20 line and
when they turn up can be the first attempt to buy back into LIZ).
When to cover is another dissertation.
MU - If we look at the most recent high of 34 on 9/25, then I am looking at a
failed rally trying to go back up to 34. I have 31.77 for resistance which it
went up and touched. And this is where I should of been taking up my first
position. (But 30 1/2 is much closer than 29 9/16). I did say that several
days ago. I find that it is better to be in a little early than too late. I
am expecting MU to make lower lows on the way down. Then again I could be
wrong. Why at 30 1/2? I stated my reasons in the original post - i.e., if the
market goes south I win. If it goes up I watch it come down on profit taking.
Now as I look at it tonight I am in probable 1 day too early possible two.
Same thing happened last time when I bailed to early with the small profit.
A problem that I conjecture is that when it is time for MU to drop in price
they run it up just a little higher to get the weak hands to cover their
shorts. Just a conjecture.
Lastly, fundamentally MU is not in good shape.
In closing, I have tried to enter a short position at the top of a daily
trading range. I have tried to do that because It allows me some extra room
for profit on a small account. As you know by now sometimes it doesn't
workout like I would like it to.
I hope it answered you question. By the way the e-mail you sent earlier made
feel very good. I actually needed your sound advice. Thank you.
Harley
Formula:
(Stoch(2,2) + Stoch(3,3) + Stoch(4,4) + Stoch(5,5)
+ Stoch(6,6) + Stoch(7,7) + Stoch(10,10))
/7
Al Taglavore wrote:
> Harley,
>
> I am asking this as a question only (I have no position in MU): Does it
> matter to you that today was the highest close of the last 11 days?
>
> Since you like to short a stock, give your opinion of LIZ. I shorted 200
> @27 3/4 today. (Went short late in the day when it took out yesterday's
> low and 10/12's high.
>
> Al Taglavore
>
> ----------
> > From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: Metastock list <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: MU
> > Date: Wednesday, October 14, 1998 10:16 AM
> >
> > Entered short 100 shares @ 30 1/2, I entered to sell short at 30 7/16.
> > So it was a good fill. Why? The market has been crawling up to the 8000
> > level and I feel it will be a psychological barrier. MU was also up 1
> > 1/2 pts. which is fairly high for any given day. If the market goes
> > south I win. If the market moves higher and MU follows then I will see
> > MU go past me but I should see it again as it falls on profit taking.
> > Also u/d volume ratio is poor about 1.75 on the NYSE considering the
> > adv, dec ratio on the NYSE. Lastly MU has not had a sell off today but
> > did open up lower. So those that bought in the 28s are up with little
> > upside potential for the rest of the day in MU.
> >
> > Currently MU 30 1/4.
> >
> > Harley
> >
> > Right now MU is
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